Tokyo Notes Analysis on Japan, From Japan

Two decades after its bubble burst, what lies ahead for Japan? Can it rediscover its dynamism and compete with Asia-Pacific's rising powers, or is it in terminal decline? Japan has shown a talent for reinvention in the past – we look at whether it can again.

Japan to Slash China Aid?

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Japan to Slash China Aid
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China has overtaken Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, is building a bullet train network across its vast land mass as fast as you can say 'shinkansen', and may even be launching a probe to Mars in 2013. It has even got cash to spare to aid African nations (albeit with an eye on their natural resources).

So is it perverse that Japan still supplies overseas development assistance to its beefed-up neighbour? Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara seems to think so, having ordered his staff to look into cutting Tokyo’s ODA budget to Beijing.

The most recent data shows that Japan handed China approximately $65.9 million in grants and technical cooperation in fiscal 2008. Tokyo has provided Beijing with more than $3.6 billion since it first extended aid in 1979.

Such assistance was originally granted to assist China as a developing nation, with a proviso added in the Foreign Ministry’s development assistance charter that ‘full attention should be paid to efforts for promoting democratization and the introduction of a market-oriented economy, and the situation regarding the protection of basic human rights and freedoms in the recipient country.’

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Japan Cracks Down on Dissent

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Japan Cracks Down on Protests
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I recently covered the accelerated construction of six new US heliports in the village of Takae and a new fence on Henoko beach on Okinawa. All of this is happening despite the apparently more conciliatory tone on base issues in Japan’s southernmost prefecture that was struck last month by US Defence Secretary Robert Gates.

As in the past, the sudden change in tactics appears to have been accompanied by heavy-handed police action. Protestors on Okinawa have already complained of police harassment. And this week, there comes news that two middle-aged activists were arrested about 100 metres from the US Embassy in Tokyo as they tried to approach it with a letter of protest.

According to other activists, when they asked the police the grounds for the arrests, they were told that the reason ‘would be given later.’ Witnesses say the march was largely uneventful until the two men were grabbed from the front of the protest group, dragged away to a police van and detained in Akasaka Police Station, without access to lawyers. The police have refused to comment on the case.

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Ishihara No Numskull

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Ishihara No Numskull
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The Numskulls are creatures in a popular British comic that live inside the head of a boy. Each of them controls a different bodily function, with one operating the buck-toothed child's brain and another one his mouth. If politicians had such creatures pulling their strings, co-operation between the brain and mouth critters would be vital for political success.

Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara has had a fractious relationship over the years with his cognitive and oral Numskulls, having made scores of controversial remarks (too numerous to list here) during his three terms in office. But they now seem to be working in harmony to manipulate a hungry media.

Speculation is rife over whether the polarizing governor will enter the capital’s gubernatorial race. And so far, Ishihara is keeping everyone guessing.

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Kan Needs to Attack LDP

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Kan Needs to Attack LDP
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The summer of 2009 saw the fall of a regime in Japan. After decades of virtually unbroken postwar rule, the Liberal Democratic Party was toppled and a new era of two-party politics was ushered in. But the old guard now seem to be wheedling their way back into power—and all the public can do is shrug.

The electorate’s apathy is understandable. In just under a year and a half in power, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan is on to its second leader; has lost control of the upper chamber of parliament; has seen its electoral mastermind indicted; has failed to deliver on manifesto pledges; and is now struggling to pass key budget-related legislation.

With the opposition controlling the upper house, the DPJ needs a two-thirds majority in the lower chamber to pass these bills—one of which is required to approve a bond issuance to cover nearly half the fiscal 2011 budget (such is the parlous state of the nation’s finances).

So Prime Minister Naoto Kan is clambering for support from smaller opposition parties. But Komeito, the political front of a Buddhist movement, has spurned Kan’s approaches, while the Social Democratic Party, a former coalition partner, seems disinterested (six SDP votes would have given the DPJ its super-majority). Meanwhile, 16 lower house lawmakers indebted for their election to Ichiro Ozawa, the ostracized (and now indicted) former party leader, announced last week that they would form a splinter group. They’ll remain as party members, but will vote of their own accord—and likely against the government on the budget bills, given their ostensible gripe over failed manifesto pledges.

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Way Out for Japan’s Whaling?

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Compromise for Japanese Whaling
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As so often in the past with whaling stories, the news that Japan has pulled its fleet out of the Antarctic, following harassment by conservationists, has been downplayed at home. The national networks here have largely ignored the story, even as much of the foreign media essentially celebrated this unexpected turn of events in the annual high seas showdown.

Even the nation’s primary public broadcasting organization, NHK, didn’t report the story until nearly two days after it broke elsewhere, and then offered up only the barest of bones.

It’s hard not to feel sympathy for Japanese journalists. Seen from a nation slowly asphyxiating in debt, old age and political gridlock, the fate of 1000 large animals thousands of miles away must seem like pretty small fry. Many editors here are mystified by the amount of coverage given to whaling in the British, Australian and New Zealand press. Their indifference, and the national media shaping of the whaling controversy largely in cultural and ethnocentric terms, helps most ordinary Japanese tune out of the debate raging elsewhere outside their borders.

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Why Did Japan Suspend Whaling?

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Why Did Japan Suspend Whaling
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Persistence seems to have paid off. The militant Sea Shepherd environmental group has finally harpooned its prey, having forced the Japanese whaling mission to suspend its annual forage in the southern seas.

But is this real reason the government has called a temporary moratorium on whaling?

A fisheries agency official said Wednesday the Nisshin Maru, the fleet’s mother ship, has refrained from hunting since February 10 to ensure the crew’s safety from the environmentalists’ guerrilla attacks. Reports say the government has curtailed the season (due to end mid-March), but the official said nothing had been decided yet.

Sea Shepherd skipper Paul Watson reportedly welcomed the news, saying that if reports are true, ‘it demonstrates our tactics, our strategies have been successful.’

The activists are a pirate-esque crew on what they call ‘Operation No Compromise.’ They have fired flares, thrown paint, put themselves between harpoons and cetaceans and, as this video shows, sailed dangerously close to the Nisshin Maru’s bow in attempts to obstruct the mission. Last season, a Sea Shepherd vessel was sunk after a collision with a whaling ship.

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A Blow for Girl Power?

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A Blow for Girl Power?
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As everyone here knows, it’s tough being Japanese.  Working and commuting hours are among the longest in the world and vacations are short: a staggering 92 percent of workers here don’t take their allocated holiday time according to the last Expedia survey on vacation deprivation.

Japanese workers take just over nine of their allotted 16.6 annual vacation days—among the lowest in the developed world. Japan Times columnist Roger Pulvers recently pointed out that this may be one of the few countries where calling someone busy is a compliment.

Life in the workforce seems especially trying for our female colleagues. After four decades near the top of the global economic league tables, Japan can finally boast that one in ten of its company presidents are women.

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Kan Should Ignore Polls

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Kan Should Ignore Polls
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Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said he won’t quit—even if his approval rating falls to one percent. But while a new opinion poll puts support for his Cabinet at less than 20 percent (down more than 12 points from last month), the figure shouldn’t be taken at face value.

Opposition parties will no doubt seize on the Kyodo News poll as an excuse to impede any chances of mature debate on key budget bills, and will instead go for the jugular and press for a snap general election. Broadcasts of parliament this week will likely be painful viewing for anyone who believes politicians should constructively discuss the big issues of the day.

A major reason cited for Kan’s low score is his failure to take strong action against Ichiro Ozawa, a highly influential ruling party lawmaker who has been indicted on corruption charges. Another is Kan’s perceived dearth of leadership skills.

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Few Clues Over Tokyo Poll

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ShintaronIshihara
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The Tokyo governor is often said to be the second most powerful figure in Japanese politics. Yet just two months before the city’s April 10 gubernatorial poll, only a single name is in the hat.

Akira Koike, an upper house Japanese Communist Party lawmaker, formally announced his candidacy Wednesday. But the majority of voters are unlikely to want their metropolis painted red, and will be weighing up various options from a colourful band of procrastinators.

Among the high-profile figures said to be mulling a run at the job are a restaurant magnate, a funnyman, a minor party leader, a former newscaster, and the current governor’s deputy. But they all seem to be waiting for the incumbent to make his move.

A polarizing figure, Shintaro Ishihara has been in the job for 12 years and is keeping his cards close to his chest on whether he will run for a fourth term.

His son Nobuteru, the opposition Liberal Democratic Party’s secretary general and tormentor-in-chief of Prime Minister Naoto Kan, backed his father’s bid Tuesday, saying, ‘Amid the chaotic political situation, it’s important to have a politician like him who comes out with sound arguments.’

But these ‘sound arguments’ can be hard on the ears. Ishihara senior has made remarks that have disparaged women, homosexuals and foreigners (he’s been dubbed Japan’s Le Pen for reasons such as questioning whether the Rape of Nanking occurred). Recently, however, he called for a relaxing of Japan’s draconian alien residency rules.

Ishihara has also presided over (expensive) failed Olympic bids and the disastrous launch of a bank that has been propped up with taxpayers’ money. Yet many see him as someone who articulates what others dare not say and a breath of fresh air compared with the feckless politicians that trot out the party line.

But none of the potential runners and riders can be accused of being identikit politicians. And with personality likely to trump policy in the upcoming poll, what do the alternatives to Ishihara have going for them? And how likely are they to run?

Koike, the communist candidate, is a physician specializing in gastroenterology. He also appears to hate the incumbent’s guts, using his candidacy speech to slam Ishihara for ‘throwing away jobs’ and his ‘misappropriation’ of taxpayers’ money. His election, however, is about as likely as Sarah Palin winning an economics debate with Karl Marx.

Miki Watanabe, head of the Watami restaurant group, is also reported to be considering making a run for the governorship if he gains the backing of the up-and-coming Your Party. A charismatic entrepreneur, Watanabe has come into the spotlight in recent years for his outspoken attacks on the current state of the education system and his frequent TV appearances. It’s unclear, though, whether he will go down as well with voters as the cheap drinks served in his izakaya pubs.

The joker in the pack is Hideo Higashikokubaru. Comedy apprentice to Takeshi Kitano, he put on a straight face in becoming governor of Miyazaki between 2007 using his fame to gain (over)exposure for the prefecture. Known to be extremely ambitious, media speculation to his future has been rife since ‘the housewives’ choice’ decided not to run for a second term. He has yet to rule out a bid for the top Tokyo job (perhaps on an LDP ticket if Ishihara decides not to run).

Yoichi Masuzoe, a popular politician who split from the LDP to head the minor conservative New Renaissance Party, is also touted as a potential runner. Another potential candidate is Ishihara’s deputy Naoki Inose. The writer and journalist was the first vice governor not to have served as a bureaucrat or lawmaker. He openly disagrees with Ishihara on a number of issues, but is known to share Ishihara’s advocacy of increased regional autonomy. Inose’s decision could well depend on that of his boss.

But in terms of her sheer popularity, a bid by Renho, minister for administrative reforms, could rival that of any of the other potential candidates. Her unyielding grilling of bureaucrats in budget screening sessions won her many plaudits and helped her to receive a record number of votes in her re-election to the upper house election last July.  The former model and newsreader’s straightforward manner and looks don’t hurt her chances either. But while the ruling Democratic Party of Japan is rumoured to be considering backing Renho for the gubernatorial poll, does Kan really want to lose one of his biggest assets in the Cabinet?

All the mooted aspirants are playing a waiting game. No one seems willing to announce their candidacy too early and risk the public tiring of them. They also could be delaying their decisions until they know what Ishihara’s plans are. It won’t be until then that we’ll know as much about their plans for the metropolis as we do about their personalities.

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Another Okinawa Battle

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Stations Again On Okinawa
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In June 2009, Okinawa Prefecture became the unexpected political graveyard of Yukio Hatoyama, who quit after months of struggling to bear the weight of a pledge he made to its citizens.  

Hatoyama had come to power the previous September promising to tackle one of the great Cold War anomalies. For over half a century, constitutionally pacifist and neutral Japan had sheltered beneath the US military umbrella as a loyal (and in recent years increasingly proactive) ally. ‘We're still in Cold War mode,’ he lamented to me before he took power.

Two years later, the former prime minister appears to still recognise the long-term unsustainability of that arrangement. ‘The idea of having one nation’s military based on another’s soil and depending on its military is not something seen anywhere else in the world,’ he told the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan on February 2. ‘I felt that this was something the Japanese people couldn't avoid confronting.’

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