Avoiding US-China Military Rivalry
By Michael Swaine
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PlurkBut there are things Washington and Beijing can do to avoid this outcome.
First, the two countries must engage in a strategic dialogue at the track-two—or semi-official—level with military and civilian figures outside government. By holding open-ended talks that go beyond the official level, these participants can address the medium- and long-term implications of the current military trajectories and the specific territorial, economic, and political issues driving the countries apart. While leaders won’t officially be involved in the discussions, track-two participants should maintain close contact with them to keep them informed of developments and seek their input.
Second, both sides must sustain and strengthen military-to-military links, as US Defence Secretary Robert Gates signalled during his recent visit to China. These ties must be insulated from the overall ups and downs of the bilateral relationship, to avoid feeding mistrust and curtailing understanding between the militaries.
Third, Washington and Beijing need to assess the military dynamic over Taiwan. China’s military continues to deploy forces along the coast, while the United States continues to sell arms to the island. As time goes on, China will be less likely to tolerate US military aid to Taiwan. Washington should therefore reconsider its current strategy and contemplate broaching a conversation with China about mutual constraint.
Fourth, both militaries should expand ways of cooperating on other security issues. China is already participating in international piracy controls in the Gulf of Aden. Further cooperation in areas such as disaster and humanitarian relief, counterterrorism, or other non-traditional threats would help boost the overall relationship.
All of these steps will involve strengthening the incentives and abilities of both militaries to cooperate, while avoiding the use of worst-case assumptions about the other. It won’t be easy—both militaries will need to make a sustained commitment to communicate frequently, at both the personal and operational levels, and with as much candour as possible. This in turn will require a strong commitment to such military contact on the part of senior civilian leaders on both sides. Unless this happens, however, progress on strategic issues will be limited, hostility could grow, and both sides could become more resolute about defending their respective military objectives.
Michael Swaine is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
prabhat
i always support the china and his Maoist party and hope the peoples republic of china must delete all the world’s population and there are only one types of peoples are lived in earth and they were the mongoloid chines peoples.
it is all are the bad war.
its is the great man’s theory Darwin’s law survival for existence.
SCdad07
From the Telegraph 10-Aug-11: Title: ‘US’ warns ‘China’ over spy planes
‘US’ has warned ‘China’ that it will ‘seriously harm” the relationship between the two countries if it continues to fly its spy planes close to the ‘US’ coast.
How will US react if that is true?
China 4ever
The Chairman of the US joints chief of staff has just concluded a visit to China. he stressed the neeed for co operation between the two countries.Guess waht happened next?US spy plaes are eaves dropping on China.Is that the way to build trust?
If I were the PLA defence chief I would make sure China won’t be bullied as ain the past. This shows you can’t trust the words of the US. Only a strong China maybe with 500 nw would get the respect of the US.
Joesph Brown
China is flexing their muscles, and slowly starting intimidate countries in the South China Sea. Everyone keep your eyes on SRI LANKA , its gonna be a very important part in CHINA & USA relations. China is helping fund ports there and its on the other side of India ( US Ally). CHINA is assisting Sri Lanka in building their army.
Thomas C
Hey JB , i totally agree with you . SRI LANKA ,VIETNAM , PHILLIPINES , TAIWAN all these countries are all pawns in this chess game.
Mike_47
Have you guys watched “Sri Lanka’s Killing Fields” Documentary by Channel 4 in UK . You google it. Its very disturbing but kind of gives you an idea of whats going on there.
TAO
Wrong! Chinese wrote “Art of War”, they will use minimal expense to balance US. for every dollar chinese spent, US will spend 50. it’s just matter of time, USA goes down like Soviet. if US wants to live, they have to cut their defense spending to under 10% of GDP.
peace
Amri Diharja
No,, i think china and southeast asia countries offer mutual relation one another. They work together in the development of economy, for example establishing Asean China Free Trade Area. Although , its impact of free trade is not yet analized detailly. Try to see in http://www.mtib.gov.my/repository/woodspot/website_acfta_23july09.pdf, there can be viewed the relation of trade between ASEAN and China.
fred c
If I were the PLA Chief of Staff, the analogy would be the game of go. It is a long game, played with pieces like factories, missiles, alliances and foreign reserves. This is a game that neither side wants to see fought in a hot war. The long run advantage lies with the US unless its political system can not handle its budget problems. The best scenario is that the Chinese middle class becomes so dominant that some form of power sharing occurs and Taiwan becomes so integrated that it becomes a non-issue.
Unfortunately there are certain issues like Senkaku/Diao yu tai that the US seems to have taken the wrong side. A call to war by China on Senkaku would mobilize the majority of the population, maybe most of the rest of the world would support China. The US would be in a difficult position of having to defend the US Japan alliance over a historical injustice. To balance Chinese power in that eventuality the US will have. to spend tremendous amounts of money over the next 25 years, money both sides could use to much better purpose.
Leonard R.
The US and China are already in a cold war. It’s just that the small elite in the US Government are trying to ignore it. But the American public and the military are increasingly demanding that their government wake up.
It will be a hot war in our lifetimes, unless by some miracle, the people in the PRC manage to overthrow the thugs who run the government.
Even if that were to happen, I believe the rulers of the PRC would rather go up in a mushroom cloud than face the wrath of their own people.
The PLA is is very reckless with its words. It threatens to nuke, LA. Even line officers like Tony Cao spout anti-American dribble. I don’t think the civilian leadership of the PRC even has them on a leash.
There have been numerous massive cyber-attacks against the US Government. The PLA is designing a missile to attack US carriers, even as those carriers protect the shipping lanes that allow China to accumulate foreign reserves.
The US & China are already at war. The problem is that only one side is fighting it. America needs to wake up. Take this out of the hands of diplomats and give it to the Pentagon & the Seventh Fleet.
John G
It’s fine and all to talk about and aim for cooperation with the Chinese military. However the US and all of the Chinese neighbors should not be complacent. History suggests the middle kingdom usually pretends to be your friend when she needs time. He she gets stronger and becomes more powerful, she will bully her way through. Already you can see an incredible level of arrogance displayed by many of her citizens nowaday.
eb1
I think you’re in fact talking about Japan.
scrow
Thats right John G is talking about Japan.
Fred A
China is already bullying Vietnam in the Paracel Island and the Philipines in the Spratly Islands.