“After more than a decade of having American blood spilled in Afghanistan, with nearly six years lost to President George W. Bush’s disastrous indifference, it is time for United States forces to leave Afghanistan on a schedule dictated only by the security of the troops. It should not take more than a year. The United States will not achieve even President Obama’s narrowing goals, and prolonging the war will only do more harm.”
And the Times concluded: “We are not arguing that everything will work out well after the United States leaves Afghanistan. It will not. The Taliban will take over parts of the Pashtun south, where they will brutalize women and trample their rights. Warlords will go on stealing. Afghanistan will still be the world’s second-poorest country.”
That’s in line with several recent analyses by people with vast experience in Afghanistan. Most surprising was a bleak forecast from Reto Stocker, the outgoing chief of the International Committee of the Red Cross, who’d spent seven long years there. The ICRC, which focuses on humanitarian relief and civilian protection, rarely comments in public about its thinking. Still, Stocker said that, despite the efforts of the U.S./NATO coalition, the end of the war “is not in sight,” adding: “I am filled with concern as I leave this country. Since I arrived here in 2005, local armed groups have proliferated, civilians have been caught between not just one but multiple front lines, and it has become increasingly difficult for ordinary Afghans to obtain health care. People are not just suffering the effects of the armed conflict. Hardship arising from the economic situation, or from severe weather or natural disaster, has become more widespread, and hope for the future has been steadily declining.”Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.
Even bleaker was the most recent report from the International Crisis Group, a nonpartisan body that has been involved in Afghanistan from the start. It concluded that Afghanistan is utterly unable to provide for its own security when the international forces leave. “Plagued by factionalism and corruption, Afghanistan is far from ready to assume responsibility for security when U.S. and NATO forces withdraw in 2014,” the ICG said in its report. And it emphasized that the corrupt and mismanaged tangle of politics, elections and courts is so bad that the scheduled 2014 presidential election is almost guaranteed to be plagued with widespread fraud, vote-rigging, and violence that it will either be postponed or held under a “state of emergency.”
The next Obama-Romney debate will be held on Monday, and it is supposed to focus on foreign policy and national security. Questions framed around the arguments in the Times editorial, the ICRC’s comments, and the ICG report might elicit useful responses from both candidates. But don’t expect serious discussion and debate. As in Iraq, where President Obama closed the door on a horrific mess created by his predecessor without seeking to hold the administration of George W. Bush accountable, in Afghanistan too the president seems willing to declare victory – that is, the killing of Osama bin Laden – and come home. And while Romney may make a mention or two of the fact that the Taliban isn’t going away, neither candidate should be expected to answer the hard questions left over from America’s longest war.
Those questions include both tactical and strategic ones. The tactical ones are: Since the United States is leaving, what are your thoughts about how to assemble a rebalanced Afghan government that includes all elements of society, including the insurgents? What can we do about Pakistan, which continues to harbor, support and encourage the Taliban and its allies, including the Haqqani group and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s organization? And what steps will you take to bring Russia, China and Iran to an agreement with the United States and Pakistan to reduce political conflict among their allies in Afghanistan?
The strategic ones, however, are more troubling: What have we learned about America’s ability to engage in counterinsurgency and nation-building in countries like Afghanistan? What does America’s failure in Afghanistan say about its ability to take action in countries as diverse as Somalia, Yemen, Sudan, Syria, and Iran? If you claim that the United States is “exceptional,” and that American “exceptionalism” still prevails, are you deterred by our exceptional failure in twelve years of war in Afghanistan?