The EU-Central Asia summit, held in Samarkand on April 3-4, marked a milestone. For the first time, the leaders of all five Central Asian states gathered for direct talks with the European Union. For Kazakhstan, the summit capped off a month of high-level meetings with European representatives in Astana, as well as the announcement of rare mineral discoveries. Recent developments hint at a closer relationship between Kazakhstan and the EU, and signal that Astana may do more to stop Kazakh companies from helping Russia circumvent sanctions.
Just a week before the summit, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas traveled to Astana for bilateral talks. There, she met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Murat Nurtleu. These meetings followed Nurtleu’s talks earlier in the month with European Commissioner for International Partnerships Jozef Síkela. Besides covering preparations for the Samarkand summit, talks also focused specifically on the EU’s relationship with Kazakhstan. Nurtleu and Sikela discussed multiple subjects ranging from the development of transport corridors to the strengthening of economic ties.
A few days after Kallas’ visit, new opportunities for European investment in Kazakhstan emerged. On the first day of the Samarkand summit, Kazakh geologists announced the discovery of a potential 20-million-ton rare earth metal deposit. If verified, the find could further boost Kazakhstan’s trade with the EU, which already grew by 18 percent during 2024. This trend of growing European trade dates back to 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted Kazakhstan to carefully recalibrate its external relations.
As sanctions tightened against its largest trading partner, Astana has had to walk a diplomatic tightrope. Kazakhstan has consistently stated that while it would not impose its own sanctions on Russia, it would respect measures imposed by other countries. This position was first outlined in 2022 by Timur Suleimenov, then the deputy chief of the presidential office, who pledged efforts to control investments from sanctioned entities. Tokayev reaffirmed this stance in a meeting with then-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz the following year. These promises were to some extent kept in late 2022, when the authorities started to detain Russian trucks and drivers carrying goods from the EU trough Kazakhstan, according to Russian newspaper Kommersant.
However, enforcement has often been uneven. A report by Kazakh civil society organizations documented how goods continued flowing through Kazakhstan and Belarus into Russia. Investigations have also shown that parallel import goods shipped through Kazakhstan into Russia remain a challenge. In August 2024, Deputy Prime Minister and Trade Minister Serik Zhumangarin told Bloomberg that Kazakhstan would not “blindly follow sanctions” if doing so harmed its economy, a comment later downplayed by Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vasilenko. Nonetheless, investigative media outlet The Insider reported in November that Kazakh companies were still facilitating sanctions evasion.
Despite these complications, Kazakhstan has largely avoided direct confrontation with Western authorities. Only two Kazakh firms were added to the EU’s sanctions list last year for supplying microchips to Russia, with two more blacklisted this February following a visit to Astana by the EU’s sanctions envoy, David O’Sullivan. While O’Sullivan called for greater efforts from Kazakhstan, he also acknowledged the measures already taken.
As Kazakhstan continues to strengthen its ties with the EU, signs of a strategic shift are emerging. Shortly after the Samarkand summit, Vasilenko published an article in The Diplomat outlining his vision for a resilient global economy. Notably, while both the European Union and China featured prominently, Russia was absent from the deputy foreign minister’s vision of the future. This pragmatism has been a hallmark of Tokayev’s presidency. Since taking office, he has pursued a more balanced and diversified foreign policy compared to his predecessor.
While a complete break with Russia remains highly unlikely, deeper integration with the EU could offer Kazakhstan greater resilience and lessen its need to accommodate sanctions evasion.