The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Jean Encinas-Franco – a professor in the Department of Political Science, College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of the Philippines, Diliman – is the 458th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”
On March 11, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila, then quickly extradited to the Netherlands to face trial in the International Criminal Court case examining his deadly “war on drugs.” Examine the Philippines domestic political fallout of the arrest and the ICC’s case against Duterte.
It is certainly polarizing given that Duterte’s daughter is the vice president and they still command a huge following among Filipinos. The arrest also came amid the widely covered rift between Sara Duterte and [current President Ferdinand] Marcos, Jr.
Analyze the impact of the ICC case on the Duterte political dynasty.
It is a big setback, but depending on how they play their cards, it can also galvanize support for their base. However, it might be difficult for them to gain support from politicians given the huge formal and informal powers that Marcos has. Meanwhile, Sara Duterte still figures in polls about potential presidents in 2028.
How would the downfall of the Duterte dynasty affect the Marcos political dynasty?
The Duterte dynasty’s downfall is a huge win for the Marcos dynasty. First, it contributes to revitalizing the Marcos legacy that Marcos used during his 2022 campaign. By hurling Duterte to the ICC, human rights violations during the Marcos Sr. presidency may be downplayed. It is also a boon for Marcos Jr.’s image before the international community. At the same time, even those who are anti-Marcos seem to be happy that the Marcos Jr. administration cooperated with the ICC to arrest Duterte.
What does the Duterte-Marcos rivalry portend for the country’s evolving political culture beyond strongman leadership?
I have always said that Rodrigo Duterte paved the way for Marcos’ victory in 2022. The specter of strongman rule sealed the deal among the voters who supported the Marcos-Sara tandem, given both their fathers’ legacy.
What is your sense of the future trajectory of political leadership in the Philippines?
My sense is the quest for an action-oriented and strongman rule will continue unless a massive event transpires that will change public discourse and demands from a potential leader.