India and Pakistan are on the brink of another war. The recent deadly terrorist shooting attack targeting tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22 resulted in at least 27 deaths and many injuries, escalating tensions between the long-time rivals, India and Pakistan. That culminated in cross-border strikes by both sides on May 7.
The April 22 attack in Pahalgam, 90 km away from the city of Srinagar, was unusual for targeting civilian tourists on such a scale. Omar Abdullah, the chief minister of India-held Kashmir, said that “the attack was much larger than anything we have seen directed at civilians in recent years.”
The attack was condemned by leaders from the United States, the European Union, China, Pakistan and others. Responding to media queries, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said, “We are concerned at the loss of tourists’ lives in an attack in Anantnag district of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. We extend our condolences to the near ones of the deceased and wish the injured a speedy recovery.”
In response, the Indian government claimed that Pakistan was linked to the attack without providing any concrete evidence, either to the international community or to Pakistan. New Delhi announced a series of punitive measures against Pakistan on April 23. With immediate effect, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in a major escalation. The IWT was signed by India and Pakistan in 1960 under the aegis of the World Bank and had survived three wars between the neighboring countries. New Delhi also announced that it had closed the Attari border and asked Pakistanis present in India to leave the country. Defense personnel at the Pakistani High Commission in India were also ejected, and India said announced staff at the high commission would be reduced.
Pakistan strongly denied any responsibility for the Pahalgam terrorist attack. Instead, Pakistani analysts have suggested that India’s own government was behind the killings. Senior Pakistani journalist Najam Sethi has said that he believes that the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam could be a “false flag operation,” claiming that similar incidents were used to manipulate public perception against Pakistan by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in the past.
Rebuking the Indian allegations, Pakistan declared that India’s suspension of IWT was an “act of war” and retaliated with its own measures. Pakistan’s National Security Council (NSC) announced, “Pakistan shall close down the Wagah Border Post, with immediate effect. All cross-border transit from India through this route shall be suspended, without exception.” Indian nationals in Pakistan were told to leave the country within a week, and Pakistan also announced the closure of airspaces and suspension of trade with India.
Along with these retaliatory measures, Islamabad called for a neutral investigation into the attack, highlighting the lack of evidence offered by India to link Pakistan to the killings. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, “The recent tragedy in Pahalgam is yet another example of this perpetual blame game, which must come to a grinding halt. Continuing with its role as a responsible country, Pakistan is open to participating in any neutral, transparent and credible investigation.” New Delhi rejected Islamabad’s proposal, calling it a deceptive tactic.
Notably, Pakistan’s calls for a neutral investigation was endorsed by China. Sharif himself met with China’s Ambassador to Pakistan Jiang Zaidong on May 1, a sign of the importance Pakistan’s government places on China’s support amid the tensions.
As a neighboring country to both India and Pakistan, China is eager to prevent a significant military confrontation between these two nuclear powers on its doorstep. Thus, China has called for restraint.
Guo Jiakun, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, during his press briefing on April 28 said that “both India and Pakistan are important countries in South Asia. Their harmonious coexistence is vital to the peace, stability and development of the region. As the neighbor of the two countries, China calls on the two sides to exercise restraint, solve differences through dialogue and jointly keep the region peaceful and stable.”
When asked specifically about Pakistan’s proposal for a neutral investigation, he said that “China welcomes all measures that will help cool down the current situation and supports carrying out fair and just investigations at an early date.”
Although China has historically supported Pakistan as an all-weather friend, its recent efforts to improve relations with India may limit its response to diplomatic support for Pakistan, without extending military assistance. Beijing’s support for Pakistan could come in the form of financial assistance, strategic alignments, as well as diplomatic support, but it is unlikely to materialize into military involvement directly from China’s People’s Liberation Army.
The India-Pakistan war of 1971 provides a useful precedent, as Andrew Small summarized in his book, “The China Pakistan Axis”: “As the end of the war grew ever nearer, a Chinese intervention looked more and more like Pakistan’s only possible escape route from self-inflicted disaster. But ultimately Pakistan would lose half its population, a fifth of its territory, and see ninety-three thousand of its soldiers become prisoners of war without even a token skirmish on the Sino-Indian border.”
At a time when India and China are mending their ties after de-escalating tensions along their disputed border in late 2024, Beijing is expected to play a balancing role without any direct military support for its “all-weather friend” Pakistan.
Diplomatically, however, China has been offering support for Pakistan since the Pahalgam attack, both multilaterally and bilaterally. According to the Indian media, Islamabad managed to water down the United Nations Security Council’s statement regarding the Pahalgam attack with support from Beijing. Moreover, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, told Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in a phone call on April 27 that “China always supportsPakistan’s resolute implementation of counter-terrorism actions.” Wang added, “As Pakistan’s ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests.”
Wang again offered Beijing’s support for a formal probe, saying, “China supports an impartial investigation as soon as possible, as the conflict does not serve the fundamental interests of either India or Pakistan, nor does it contribute to regional peace and stability.”
Despite calls for restraint and de-escalation, India launched cross-border strikes against Pakistan on May 7, claiming to target nine terrorist infrastructure sites. Pakistan, however, said that six Pakistani locations were targeted and none of them was used as camps by militants. According to Islamabad, residential areas including a mosque were hit in the strikes, claiming 26 lives. The Indian Defense Ministry’s announcement did not provide any details of what has been hit other than claiming that the targeted places were “from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed.”
In retaliation, Pakistan said that it had shot down five Indian fighter jets, a claim that was not confirmed by India. However, at least four local government sources in Indian-held Kashmir told Reuters that during the night three fighter jets had crashed in separate areas in the Himalayan region. The sources further added that all three pilots were hospitalized.
China’s Foreign Ministry response singled out “India’s military operation,” which spokesperson Lin called “regrettable,” although he also reiterated that “Chian opposes all forms of terrorism.” He added, “We are concerned about the ongoing situation… We urge both sides to act in the larger interest of peace and stability, remain calm, exercise restraint and refrain from taking actions that may further complicate the situation.”
Lin concluded by saying, “We stand ready to work with the international community to continue to play a constructive role in the deescalation of the ongoing tensions.”
Beijing does not want a major military escalation in its neighborhood for both security and economic reasons. With the ongoing China-U.S. trade war, China does not want to hurt its economic relations with India – the bilateral trade volume between the two crossed the $100 billion mark back in 2021. Offering direct support for Pakistan could lead China to lose the Indian market even as Chinese goods have been hit with 145 percent tariffs in the United States. Rising tensions on China’s maritime front – in the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea – could be another reason for China to avoid any major conflict in its backyard. Thus, Beijing would like to play a mediatory role – but that would not be acceptable to New Delhi, given China’s close ties to Pakistan.
The United States might seek to play mediator to de-escalate the situation. Signals from Washington have been mixed, however. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on his call with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, “encouraged India to work with Pakistan to de-escalate tensions and maintain peace and security in South Asia.”
In contrast, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said the U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth had backed New Delhi’s right to self-defense. Hegseth’s own statement said he had offered Singh “my strong support. We stand with India and its great people.”
Washington has provided intelligence and even material support to India, a major U.S. ally in the region, in its clashes with China along the disputed Sino-Indian border. If the United States provides similar support to India during this conflict, it could compel China to step in and back its regional ally, Pakistan. Consequently, navigating a balancing role in this situation will be challenging for China.
For his part, U.S. President Donald Trump called the strikes on Pakistan a “shame,” and added, “They’ve been fighting for a long time. They’ve been fighting for many, many decades. I hope it ends very quickly.”