The ongoing wave of recalls against Kuomintang (KMT) legislators in Taiwan has taken an unusual turn. Some KMT politicians have proposed a vote of no confidence in the Cabinet. If a successful vote of no confidence in the Cabinet occurs, with a majority of legislators voting in favor of the motion, the Cabinet would need to be dissolved within 10 days. More than that, provided Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Legislative Yuan president Han Kuo-yu of the KMT agree, Lai would be able to dissolve the legislature, with a new set of elections to be held within 60 days.
The wave of recall efforts targeting KMT legislators is mainly a response to the drastic budget cuts pushed for by the party earlier this year. 34 percent of the government’s operational budget was cut, including slashes to Taiwan’s defense budget at a time when the United States has called on it to increase the percentage of GDP spent on military expenditures.
In addition, the KMT has sought to change the system of checks and balances in favor of the legislature, where it holds a slim majority if it votes together with its ally, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Last year, the KMT and TPP attempted to shift investigatory powers away from the executive and judiciary branches of government to the legislature, prompting fears that such powers would be used to target political critics. The legislation led to the outbreak of what later became known as the Bluebird Movement, the largest social movement that Taiwan has seen since the 2014 Sunflower Movement.
After the Constitutional Court struck down the legislative powers sought by the KMT as unconstitutional, the party next moved to freeze the Constitutional Court. With seven of Taiwan’s 15 justices stepping down last October after the end of their terms, freezing the Constitutional Court was accomplished by passing new laws requiring a minimum of 10 justices for constitutional interpretations to be made, then blocking any new appointments by the Lai administration to the Constitutional Court.
Amid continued controversy, momentum has shifted from the Bluebird Movement to pursuing recalls for KMT legislators.
The wave of recalls against the KMT is historically unprecedented. Though there were calls for organizing recalls against KMT politicians in the wake of the 2014 Sunflower Movement, such recall campaigns were unsuccessful. Even then, the 2014 effort did not seek to recall all of the KMT’s legislators – only some seen as especially corrupt.
At present, it appears as though more than 20 recalls against KMT legislators will meet the signature requirements to take place. These recalls will be concentrated in Taichung, Taoyuan, and greater Taipei. While the KMT eked out a narrow victory in 2024 for some legislative seats in central Taiwan, where Taichung is located, Taoyuan and greater Taipei are historical strongholds for the KMT.
Even if enough signatures are gathered to force a recall vote, it’s uncertain whether the recalls will meet the necessary public turnout threshold to be binding – 25 percent of eligible voters need to participate.
If a KMT legislator is successfully recalled, by-elections will have to be held in order to fill the seat previously occupied by that legislator. Though the ousted candidate is forbidden from running again, it is possible that another KMT candidate would be elected. At the same time, the dynamics for by-elections are often different than normal campaign seasons, which may mean differing outcomes.
The DPP would need to win six extra seats in order to gain the majority in the legislature.
Against the backdrop of the recall campaigns, the idea of a vote of no confidence in the Cabinet so as to allow for a new set of elections was introduced by Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an in late April. Chiang first voiced the idea at a KMT-led protest against the recalls that took place on April 17 and went into the early morning hours of April 18.
It’s unclear whether the idea originated with Chiang or if he was simply the spokesperson. Regardless, editorials quickly appeared in major pan-Blue newspapers, calling for the dissolution of the Cabinet and a new set of elections. These op-eds argued against the prevailing wisdom that the KMT would fare worse in an entirely new set of elections compared to the recall votes, given the strenuous thresholds for a recall to succeed.
Whether or not the KMT tilts in the direction of dissolving the Cabinet and calling for a new set of elections depends on whether other party heavyweights also agree to the idea. KMT chair Eric Chu has embraced the idea, while Taichung mayor Lu Shiow-yen has stated that she is open to it. How Legislative Yuan president Han Kuo-yu, KMT legislative caucus leader Fu Kun-chi, former President Ma Ying-jeou (who remains influential within the party), or former KMT caucus leader Wang Jin-pyng feel about the idea is less clear.
Who in the KMT agrees to the idea of a new set of elections versus attempting to survive the wave of recalls may also factor into expected contention in the KMT regarding who will be the next party chair – chair elections will take place in September – as well as who will take the lead in jockeying to become the KMT’s presidential candidate in 2028.
It is possible that some KMT legislators fear that they will lose their seats and would prefer a new set of elections altogether, since they would not be able to run for office again after being recalled. Or, in spite of the wave of recalls against the KMT, some elements of the party may think that the KMT’s current public standing is such that it could potentially do better than the DPP in a snap election.
Another possibility is that the KMT’s failure to organize successful recalls against DPP legislators has cast a shadow over the party’s decision-making. The KMT began to organize its own set of recalls against DPP legislators in response to the recall campaigns directed against it, but these have largely struggled. A number of KMT recall organizers have even run into legal trouble over allegations of signature fraud on recall petitions, often involving the names of deceased individuals.
The KMT has since begun to lean into the narrative that the recall campaign is a form of political persecution from the DPP. Illustrative of the KMT’s pitched rhetoric, in public statements, Chu has compared the DPP’s actions to fascism and communism. The KMT’s April 26 rally was framed as an emergency mobilization against the DPP’s “Green Communism.”
On the other hand, the KMT’s ally party, the TPP, is likely not to be a fan of the idea of a new set of elections. In a public meeting between Chu and TPP chair Huang Kuo-chang, Huang called for a new set of presidential elections to be held if a new set of legislative elections take place. Huang is likely hoping to put the brakes on the idea.
The TPP – whose current slate of legislators all have seats in the legislature based on proportional voting for political parties – could be wiped out by a new set of elections. Party founder Ko Wen-je, who formed the TPP to support his presidential ambitions, is currently in jail and cannot be the public face of the party in campaigning. In addition, though the KMT and TPP tried (and failed) to cement a joint presidential bid in 2024, the TPP has perhaps too closely aligned with the KMT on moves such as cutting the budget and freezing the Constitutional Court in the time since. The historical challenge facing third parties in Taiwan is that they fail to distinguish themselves from the larger political party in their camp – usually prompting voters to instead vote for that larger party.
Still, the KMT is in a position where it can simply shrug off the TPP. And if the TPP is wiped out in a new set of elections, that may mean more legislative seats for the KMT.
Yet since the meeting between Chu and Huang, the KMT has begun to call for President Lai Ching-te to be recalled. It is unclear how this would take place, given the lack of legal precedent, though the KMT has suggested it would organize a referendum to recall Lai. There is no provision in Taiwanese law for a vote of no confidence in the president. But if the KMT aims to impeach Lai through the legislature, the TPP and KMT voting together do not have the two-thirds majority required for an impeachment vote. The Constitutional Court, which is not likely to side with the KMT on the matter, would also have to vote in favor of the impeachment.
It is possible that the KMT is simply seeking to rally its base in calling for Lai’s recall. Higher turnout for recall votes may benefit the KMT, if the party is able to mobilize voters to vote down any recall. The 25 percent threshold for voter participation for recalls to be binding is sufficiently low that it puts pressure on parties to mobilize their supporters to vote against the measure, rather than hoping that recall votes do not meet the benchmark to be binding.
The KMT is also currently calling for national referendums against what it terms DPP martial law, as well as in favor of capital punishment. Capital punishment is highly popular among the public in Taiwan, and the KMT has framed a Constitutional Court ruling late last year that narrowed the scope of capital punishment as a de facto abolition of the death penalty. But as the DPP has not declared martial law and capital punishment is, in fact, still on the books, it is unclear as to whether the referendums will be permitted by the Central Election Commission.
Where the DPP stands on the idea of having a new set of elections is unclear. The DPP would have to agree to a vote of no confidence in its own Cabinet, but could view a new set of elections as favorable. DPP caucus leader Ker Chien-ming has criticized the KMT for its lack of decisiveness on the idea.
Either way, with the possibility of not just a wave of recalls, but new legislative elections, calls for the recall of President Lai, and national referendums all on the horizon, it looks like Taiwan is set for a contentious year politically.