Allies of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte performed better than expected in the race for vacant Senate seats at yesterday’s midterm elections, setting the scene for another round of political combat between the country’s two most prominent political dynasties.
A total of 18,280 political positions were up for grabs in the election, including seats in the House of Representatives and governorships and vice-governorships across the archipelago. But much of the attention was on the battle for the 12 open seats in the Senate, a proxy battleground for rival political camps led by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his predecessor Duterte.
Despite uniting to stunning success ahead of the 2022 presidential election, the two clans and their supporters have been locked in an acrimonious feud for more than a year. This culminated in Duterte’s arrest and extradition to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March to face charges related to his violent war on drugs, shortly after the impeachment of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, for a litany of misdeeds, including an alleged threat to kill President Marcos.
According to “partial, unofficial results” collated by Rappler, Marcos allies looked likely to win at least half of the 12 Senate seats. However, Duterte-aligned candidates performed better than expected, and were set to win as many as four seats, the likely beneficiaries of the electorate’s main concerns: jobs, inflation, and the cost of basic goods.
The Duterte slate was led by Christopher “Bong” Go, a former aide of Duterte who received the most support of any Senate candidate nationwide, and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a former national police chief who helped Duterte prosecute his violent “war on drugs,” who came in third.
The other two likely Duterte victors were the conservative former House lawmaker Rodante Marcoleta, who came in sixth, and Imee Marcos, the sister of the president, who was sitting precariously in 12th place according to the preliminary results. Imee Marcos was not officially part of the slate of pro-Duterte candidates, but broke with her brother over the arrest and extradition of Duterte to The Hague.
While the political allegiances in the Senate are fluid and unpredictable, the results would appear to preserve the majority necessary for Marcos to pursue his legislative agenda in the second half of his term. At the same time, the strong showing of pro-Duterte candidates may be enough to prolong the career of Vice President Duterte, whose impeachment trial will be held by the Senate in July. The Senate needs a two-thirds majority to convict Duterte, who would then be stripped of her position and banned from standing for political office for life. This would dash her reported plans to run for the presidency in 2028, which, on yesterday’s showing, and her father’s victorious campaign in 2016, she stands a decent chance of winning.
In a statement issued late yesterday, Duterte described the outcome of the election as “a renewed beginning” for the country.
“We invite all citizens – regardless of background or past affiliation – to join us in building a powerful and principled opposition,” she said. “Together, we can shape a future that is fair, inclusive, and just.”
Opinion surveys conducted during the three-month campaign had suggested the Duterte camp might win as few as two of the 12 Senate seats. A poll conducted by Pulse Asia in late April showed that nine of the top 14 senatorial candidates were members of the pro-Marcos Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas. However, other recent opinion polls had begun to show a swing toward Duterte-backed Senate candidates.
A poll published this week by the independent opinion firm WR Numero noted a “clear growth” in support for pro-Duterte candidates, while a poll conducted by Pulse Asia in March saw Marcos’s approval rating fall to 25 percent, down from 42 percent a month earlier. Sara Duterte’s approval rating rose to 59 percent, up from 52 percent.
The swing could be a result of Duterte’s arrest and extradition to The Hague, which has inflamed his supporters, fueled a sense of persecution among them, and prompted a nationalistic campaign to secure his return. As mentioned above, this issue has even divided President Marcos from his sister Imee, who broke with the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas in March and later earned Sara Duterte’s endorsement.
“While Duterte’s base has always been vocal, the ICC arrest has injected fresh energy and a renewed sense of grievance into their ranks,” Cleve Arguelles, the CEO and president of WR Numero, told the South China Morning Post. “This has consolidated Duterte supporters, drawing in voices who may not have been as active before but now feel compelled to rally behind Duterte as a symbol of resistance.”
Meanwhile, Duterte was on track to win re-election as mayor of his hometown Davao City, despite being held in a detention cell at the ICC, more than 11,000 kilometers away. According to preliminary results, he has received half a million votes compared to just 60,000 for his closest rival. Duterte held the position for more than two decades prior to his successful presidential run in 2016.
These results suggest that the dramatic and open political feud between the Marcoses and Dutertes, which has dominated Philippine politics for more than a year, could continue to do so in the run-up the next presidential election in three years’ time. If Sara Duterte survives her Senate election, she will no doubt seek to scale the presidential peak, and if successful, turn the tables on her perceived enemies.