The recent statement by a leading voice in Japan’s ruling party at a seminar in Taiwan about a quasi-alliance between Japan, Taiwan, Europe, Australia, and India has set forth the proverbial cat among the pigeons. Takaichi Sanae has been a member of the Japanese House of Representatives for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since 2005. She is considered the protégé of the late Abe Shinzo and narrowly lost to the present Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru in the run-off elections for the LDP president in September last year.
In late April, during a visit to Taiwan, Takaichi said that Japan, Taiwan, Europe, Australia, and India should form a “quasi-security alliance” to protect each other.
Some in Japan are worried as U.S. President Donald Trump has been making conflicting statements about the Japan-U.S. security alliance – a concern Takaichi highlighted in her comments. Questions about U.S. reliability deepened especially after the Trump administration reversed the U.S. stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and actually came out in favor of Russia, upending the traditional U.S. support for Ukraine. During his earlier term, Trump had also remarked that countries like Japan and South Korea could go nuclear, and they must be willing to pay more for their own security to the U.S., which has troops in these countries.
It was in this context of deep uncertainty that Takaichi proposed a “quasi-security alliance” where the democracies of the Indo-Pacific region and those in Europe join forces to defend each other.
The feasibility of the proposal is questionable. The Taiwan factor is especially interesting here. Taiwan’s security is critical for Japan’s own security. If Taiwan falls under Beijing’s control (and China has been quite aggressive toward Taiwan in recent years), it will be a real worry for Japan. Yet none of the countries Takaichi mentioned has formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which adds a major complication to defense cooperation.
It is also an open question how far the Europeans would go to support countries like India and Japan. In the aftermath of the Trump sanctions, the EU has signaled that it’s willing to shore up ties with China to guard against further economic shocks.
That said, the kernel of Takaichi’s “quasi-alliance” idea already exists. Alongside Japan, Australia and India are already part of the Quad, along with the United States. However, even then, there are deep uncertainties about the limits of security cooperation between them. For instance, India still has close ties with Russia, while Japan sees Russia as a security threat (not least due to their long-standing territorial dispute). Japan and Australia both have taken a very strong stand when it comes to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which is in sync with the position taken by countries in Europe and (until this year) the U.S.
It will not be easy for Japan to move out of the American embrace, since Japan and the United States are bound by a security treaty and Japan is also under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. But Takaichi’s comments are not unprecedented; Japan’s current prime minister, Ishiba, went even farther by advocating for a formal “Asian NATO” to provide collective security in the Indo-Pacific.
All said and done, this speech would be more directed at the domestic audience rather than an international audience. But such statements, from Takaichi and others, do speak to an emerging belief among Japanese that the alliance with the U.S. is no longer enough to guarantee Japan’s security.