India’s military attack on Pakistani cities in Punjab and Azad Kashmir on May 7 is a massive escalation and should be a cause of concern for countries in the region and beyond.
The military strikes on Pakistan come two weeks after 26 tourists died in a terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam. India has blamed Pakistan for the attack without sharing any evidence with Pakistan or the international community. Pakistan has consistently denied involvement and called for an independent probe into the incident.
India’s missile strikes on Wednesday, allegedly targeting militant hideouts in Pakistan, have resulted in the death of more than 25 civilians, including women and children. More than 40 people are injured, with at least 10 in critical condition.
In retaliation for the Indian attack, the Pakistan Air Force shot down five Indian Air Force (IAF) jets and a combat drone, and destroyed brigade headquarters, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director-General Lt. .Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.
The DG ISPR said in his media briefing on Wednesday morning that among the destroyed IAF jets were three French-made Rafales, one Su30MKI, and one MIG-29 Fulcrum. Currently, an intense exchange of fire is ongoing at the Line of Control with militaries on both sides targeting each other’s positions.
According to a Reuters report, “three fighter jets crashed in India’s Jammu and Kashmir territory on Wednesday,” according to four local government sources. According to another report by The Hindu, three Indian jets crashed in Jammu and Kashmir, Ramban, and Rampore areas.
Pakistan’s military spokesperson has said that these jets were downed as part of the defense measures and that Islamabad will respond to India’s missile attacks at a time of its choosing.
Pakistan’s civil-military leadership is of the view that the country has to carry out a proportional response to the Indian attack to reestablish red lines and deterrence. “The Armed Forces of Pakistan have duly been authorized to undertake corresponding actions in this regard,” according to a press release of the National Security Committee meeting on Wednesday.
Pakistan also summoned the Indian Chargé d’Affaires to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today to receive Islamabad’s “strong protest over the unprovoked Indian strikes at multiple locations across Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.”
“Pakistan firmly rejected India’s baseless justifications for its hostile conduct,” the foreign office said, adding that “the Indian side was warned that such reckless behavior poses a serious threat to regional peace and stability.”
India’s attack across the international border in Pakistan’s Punjab province and Azad Kashmir is dangerous for several reasons.
Firstly, India’s decision to violate Pakistan’s sovereignty and attack its cities comes after the international community called for restraint and dialogue. More importantly, the attack follows telephone calls that United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio made separately to India and Pakistan to deescalate tensions and establish direct channels of communication.
This essentially shows that at this stage, the U.S. has not been able to effectively restrain India from launching a military attack on Pakistan. What should worry everyone now is that Pakistan will likely carry out its own counter-strikes in India, and is not likely to respond to any third party calls for deescalation, mediation or intervention.
Pakistan could also frame its military response as aimed at targeting militants’ infrastructure and hideouts. It should not be forgotten that Pakistan has long accused India of supporting and sheltering Baloch militant groups.
However, what is further worrying is that since India has carried out the attacks across the international border, inside mainland Pakistan, Islamabad’s response will also likely be aimed at targeting mainland India. It is pertinent to note that Pakistan has a policy of “quid pro quo plus” to respond to any Indian attacks on its homeland. This essentially means that Pakistan’s response is likely going to be numerically greater inside India and Indian administrated Kashmir.
“The escalation ladder is steep,” wrote Shuja Nawaz, distinguished fellow at the South Asia Center at the Washington D.C.-based Atlantic Council.
Nawaz went on to add that the world doesn’t need another flashpoint between two nuclear-armed countries, and where air and drone attacks could easily rise to the use of heavier weapons.
Anger is surging in Pakistan as people grapple with last night’s events. Many are calling for retaliation.
The coming days point toward a dangerous escalation, with the specter of miscalculation looming large.