Within the space of a week, Canada and Australia both held federal elections that saw their center-left parties hold on to power. In Canada, defense issues atypically featured in the campaign amid a rapid deterioration in relations with the United States after Donald Trump stated his desire to annex the country as the 51st state. In Australia, defense also featured in the campaign, with both main parties pledging to increase defense spending and recognizing that the United States is increasingly acting erratically and unpredictably.
The results of Canada’s and Australia’s elections make clear that Donald Trump is boosting the fortunes of left-leaning parties as voters seek stability and a counterbalance to his policy chaos. The governments of both countries now have a mandate to explore strengthening their security partnerships beyond the United States as voters question U.S. global leadership. The United States is faltering at the same moment a rising China threatens the global order that has enabled Canada’s and Australia’s peace and prosperity since the end of World War II.
As the world returns to great power competition, smaller powers like Australia and Canada will need to work together on advancing their shared security interests in the absence of U.S. leadership. Given their common geopolitical goals – namely an international system premised on rules and not a system where might always makes right – Canada and Australia are natural partners facing common challenges.
Australia faces an acute risk from China in the Asia-Pacific, which led it to form AUKUS, while Canada has more slowly come to realize the security threats it faces from China and in the Arctic. China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and sees Canada’s north as a potential future trade route. Beijing is also hoping to access the Arctic’s natural resources as the polar ice melts. Additionally, China seeks to further its military capabilities in the Arctic through fused civil-military scientific research stations and other infrastructure projects.
The story is the same in the Southern Hemisphere: China has established research stations in Antarctica, which experts believe can be used to transmit satellite data collecting intelligence in the Indian Ocean, such as intelligence on the Diego Garcia military base and India’s naval forces. As the Chinese navy’s recent circumnavigation of Australia shows, China is growing more emboldened as Washington abandons Ukraine to Russia and picks fights with its NATO allies instead.
Assumptions about U.S. support and cooperation in countering these threats need to be re-examined. For example, the now infamous Signal group chat in which The Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg was mistakenly added to active military planning revealed a debate between Trump’s national security officials and Vice President J.D. Vance over the merits of striking the Houthis in Yemen. Vance argued that such an operation benefited the Europeans by keeping the Suez Canal open, as 40 percent of European trade transits the Canal as opposed to just 3 percent of U.S. trade. “I just hate bailing out Europe again,” the vice president wrote.
Here’s hoping that any future conflict that Australia or Canada may face involving China would inconvenience the United States just enough to warrant its support on their behalf.
As they face down similar security threats, Canada and Australia may have a number of capabilities to offer one another. For instance, Canada recently agreed to purchase a cutting-edge over-the-horizon-radar system for the Arctic in what represents Australia’s largest ever defense export. The system was originally under consideration by the United States, however uncertainty caused by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency allowed Canada to seal the deal first.
Amid discussions about welcoming other countries to participate in a second pillar of AUKUS, experts have suggested that Canada’s world-leading artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities are some of the things it could bring to the table. While AUKUS involves the United States, that should not mean that Canada and Australia cannot collaborate bilaterally on these capabilities outside of AUKUS if necessary as they seek to reduce their dependency on the United States.
Symbolism and people-to-people ties should not be overlooked either. For instance, in one of his first acts after the election, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that King Charles III will be visiting Canada for the State Opening of Parliament at the end of May. This will be the first time the Canadian monarch has done so since Queen Elizabeth II in 1977, sending a clear signal that Canada is seeking to highlight its identity as a member of the Commonwealth as it looks to shore up its alliances with historical partners.
Canada and Australia share this Commonwealth heritage, and they could forge stronger people-to-people ties through existing defense institutions. By leveraging their military academies through exchanges and training for example they could continue a proud legacy; as part of the Empire Air Training Scheme during World War II, Australia sent tens of thousands of pilots to train in Canada to support the Royal Air Force. As warfare has grown more technologically sophisticated, Canadian and Australian universities, researchers, and industry need to pool resources and exchange knowledge in the domains that will be critical in the 21st century.
This is not to say that there won’t be challenges. While Canada seems to finally have the political will to increase defense spending, the country suffers from a dysfunctional procurement process that makes it difficult to get the money the military does have out the door. Recent surveys also show that despite both Labor and the Coalition pledging to increase defense spending, only a third of Australians support more money for defense.
On the other hand, the world is going through a profound change in the international system and the current upheaval presents unique opportunities to work with like-minded partners. There is now a political preference to see defense dollars go anywhere but the United States, as Canada re-examines its F-35 purchase and seeks to build stronger defense-industrial ties with Europe that will bring contracts to Canadian manufacturers. Australia will have to balance this with the imperative of getting AUKUS submarines, but with the greater political capital afforded by Trump’s chaotic foreign policy, Australia’s leaders may have a bit more leeway to think outside of the box.
With fresh electoral mandates Canada and Australia should seize the moment to continue and expand their history of security cooperation. Doing so would likely only increase the influence of both countries in the Asia-Pacific region at a time when they could use more of it.