Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele remained in office on Tuesday after an impending vote of no confidence was narrowly averted. Votes of no confidence are not uncommon in Solomon Islands, but potential leadership changes there have garnered greater international attention amid increasing geopolitical competition in the region and Solomon Islands’ growing relationship with China.
Manele was elected prime minister just one year ago, succeeding Manasseh Sogavare, who stepped down as a candidate for the role due to his unpopularity and took on the portfolio of Manele’s finance minister. It was during Sogavare’s last term as prime minister that Solomon Islands switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019 and signed a controversial security pact with Beijing in 2022; Manele, as Sogavare’s foreign minister, was the one who closed the deal in person. Manele’s government has largely represented continuity with his predecessor, although he is more diplomatic and less tumultuous than Sogavare.
Since last year, Manele has governed with a coalition of three political parties, collectively known as the Government of National Unity. That changed last week when a motion of no confidence was filed by Central Honiara member of parliament (MP) and former president Gordon Darcy Lilo; then 10 MPs defected from the coalition, causing Manele to possibly lose his majority in parliament.
According to a local news report, the defections were likely due to dissatisfaction with Deputy Prime Minister Bradley Tovosia, who resigned as a result. But his resignation didn’t appear to assuage the defectors, who claimed they had the numbers to unseat Manele. Making things even more interesting, the departing MPs included – and were reportedly led by – Sogavare himself. Sogavare is no stranger to no confidence votes, having both faced them and orchestrated them during his long political career.
According to Solomon Islands journalist Dorothy Wickham, causes for dissatisfaction extended beyond criticism of Tovosia to include “waning confidence in Prime Minister Manele’s leadership, particularly in navigating intra-party tensions, managing economic pressures and handling the country’s foreign policy orientation.” Wickham said that ministers may have sought to “distance themselves from an increasingly unpopular administration.”
Since last week, however, Manele was able to recruit seven new ministers for his government. On Monday he shared a photo of himself with 27 MPs, implying that he had their support. (There are 50 members in the Solomon Islands Parliament.) By the time the date for the vote of no confidence came on Tuesday, it was clear that the opposition did not have the numbers to win it, and the motion was withdrawn. This is the second time that Lilo has filed and then withdrawn a vote of no confidence, the first time being in December.
Despite the failure of the no-confidence vote, it would be a mistake to consider the matter closed. According to Wickham, Sogavare’s departure from the ruling coalition is significant: he was the parliamentary wing leader of the Ownership, Unity, and Responsibility (OUR) Party, which he also founded, and his exit “could indicate an intent to form a new bloc within Parliament, further complicating Manele’s path to retaining office.” Moreover, she predicted, “Even if Manele survives the motion, his weakened mandate and fractured Cabinet raise serious questions about his ability to govern effectively.”
Some news outlets that reported on the vote of no confidence misleadingly framed it as a contest between politicians who favor China and those who do not. One Australian headline read, “Solomons leader sees off pro-China group’s no-confidence vote.”
But Solomon Islands’ complex political environment, with its fluid alliances, can’t always be broken down neatly like this. While Sogavare is decidedly pro-Beijing, opposition leader Matthew Wale, who supported the vote of no confidence along with Sogavare, has been a critic of Solomon Islands’ relationship with China (and of Sogavare himself) for years. Manele, meanwhile, can be described as pro-Beijing right along with Sogavare, even if he has been more conciliatory toward Australia and New Zealand than his predecessor.
The vote of no confidence wasn’t about Solomon Islands’ relationship with Beijing. More importantly, China doesn’t benefit from leadership turmoil in Solomon Islands, since it already has a China-friendly government in place. Nor is turmoil in Australia’s best interest as it seeks to maintain its Pacific strategy after its recent election and counteract the instability caused by the United States’ withdrawal from the region.
The question now is whether Manele can regain the kind of coalition he had before, or whether this instability could continue in the lead up to the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting, which Solomon Islands will host in September. This will be the third time that Solomon Islands has ever hosted the summit, and it will be a major test of the country’s ability to hold this kind of large international gathering.
The PIF brings up a different, looming question about China’s relationship with the Pacific Island country and the region: some international observers have raised concerns that at Beijing’s behest the Solomon Islands government will try to sideline Taiwan-aligned members of the PIF – Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu. China has increasingly exerted pressure on the PIF in recent years.