India launched an attack on Pakistan on the night of May 7, resulting in the deaths of several civilians, including women and children. New Delhi claimed it targeted militant camps that were allegedly responsible for the April 22 attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 civilians, nearly all of them Hindu tourists. According to India, Pakistan supported these militants although no evidence has been provided to prove this claim. Pakistan denied any involvement in the attack and called for a neutral investigation, a proposition that India did not accept.
After the Indian strikes on May 7, Islamabad denied the existence of any militant camps and stated that the areas targeted were civilian buildings. Pakistan vowed to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing. On the morning of May 10, Pakistan launched its counterattacks against India and the conflict escalated further until a ceasefire was brokered by the United States. Despite initial reports of violations, the ceasefire has largely held since then.
Amid tensions between the two archrivals, Afghanistan, a landlocked nation, encountered substantial challenges that threatened its trade and economy. As it does not share a direct border with India, Afghanistan largely depends on trade routes through Pakistan to facilitate its commerce with India. An alternative route, in which Afghan goods would travel to Iran’s Chabahar port and then be transported by sea to India, is still limited in its capacity.
Before launching its attack on Pakistan, India had announced measures that included the closure of its border with Pakistan. In response, Pakistan implemented countermeasures that led to the closure of the land border on both sides. Following the border closures implemented by India and Pakistan, trucks carrying goods to and from Afghanistan were prohibited from entering either country.
A total of 150 trucks carrying produce from Afghanistan – vegetables, as well as dried and fresh fruits – had entered Pakistan and were supposed to cross the Wagah border to deliver goods to India but became stranded. Pakistan later permitted these Afghan trucks to cross the border. Indian authorities at first did not allow the trucks to proceed further, but the border authorities were later asked by the Indian External Affairs Ministry to facilitate the entry of the Afghan trucks into India.
Additionally, Pakistan also closed its ports to trade with India, effectively bringing to a halt Afghanistan’s export shipments to India under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement, which enables Afghanistan to use Gwadar and Karachi ports for its exports and imports.
For a country whose economy has been struggling since August 2021 owing to international sanctions, the India-Pakistan conflict thus poses a significant challenge for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
In order to grapple with those challenges, the Center for Strategic Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan held an academic conference, titled “Tensions in Pakistan-India Relations and their Impact on the Region.” As the name suggests, the purpose was to discuss the India-Pakistan conflict and its subsequent impact on the region, including Afghanistan. “Since Pakistan and India are neighboring countries, if these tensions escalate, they will have a direct negative impact on the region and Afghanistan,” Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. “We have common interests and positive interactions with both countries and do not want a war between both countries. Regional stability and peace are important to the Islamic Emirate, and we will try to resolve this conflict peacefully.”
As the conflict between India and Pakistan escalated, particularly following the Indian attack on May 7, the situation placed additional strain on Afghanistan’s economy, according to the country’s Chamber of Commerce and Investment.
The Afghan Taliban’s Ministry of Economy also expressed concerns about the direct impact of the conflict on Afghanistan. The Taliban’s deputy minister of economy, Abdul Latif Nazari, stated, “Tensions in India-Pakistan relations negatively impact Afghanistan’s economic situation. Afghanistan’s essential goods were imported through the Wagah border, and with increased tensions, this process can undoubtedly cause serious harm to Afghanistan’s imports and exports.”
That is why Afghan officials have been calling for a separation between political-security tensions and economic issues. As a board member of the Chamber of Commerce and Investment, Khan Jan Alokozay, said, “The situation is damaging… We call on the governments of Pakistan and India to separate transit and trade issues from political and security matters.”
But there may be a silver lining: The border closures could provide the push Afghanistan needs to fully utilize Iran’s Chabahar port as an alternative for its trade. In 2016, Afghanistan, India, and Iran signed a trilateral agreement to develop the port as a transportation and trade corridor. The idea was to bypass Pakistan and provide a shorter trade route between Central Asia and India. In February 2024, the Taliban announced an investment of around $25 million in Chabahar port as an attempt to lessen Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistani ports to access to reach international markets. Moreover, the Taliban regime welcomed the India-Iran 10-year contract for the Chabahar port operation signed in May of last year.
Earlier this year, during a meeting between India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and the Taliban’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai, both countries also discussed boosting trade through Chabahar port. Thus, some argued that the conflict provided an incentive to fully utilize Chabahar port for trade with India. Mir Shaker Yaqubi, an economic expert, told TOLO News, “Given the regional situation – especially the tensions between India and Pakistan – the conditions are now favorable for using Chabahar port as an alternative to Wagah. We can significantly increase trade through this port, which is a golden opportunity for Afghanistan.”
Despite the de-escalation of the conflict between Islamabad and New Delhi, Afghanistan has good reason to reevaluate its trade routes. As a landlocked nation, it is essential for Kabul to optimize every possible route to enhance its trade. As a major road of the ancient Silk Road, Afghanistan has the potential to restore its former glory as a hub for regional trade.