Awaiting trial from within the confines of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte could only watch on as he was once again elected mayor of his hometown of Davao City, one of more than 18,000 positions up for grabs in last week’s midterm elections. Despite being situated thousands of miles away, the 80-year-old must have felt as close as ever to his supporters from his southern stronghold, who vehemently profess his innocence of the charges of crimes against humanity that he faces at the ICC.
The ICC charges relate to Duterte’s bloody “war on drugs”, the anti-narcotics campaign executed during his presidency between 2016 and 2022. An estimated 12,000-30,000 Filipinos were killed in the campaign, often on the streets or in their homes. The charges also stretch back to Duterte’s time as mayor of Davao, where he established his outspoken, hard-hitting reputation and perfected his blood-curdling anti-drugs policy.
However, it was no surprise that Duterte won a landslide in Davao. The Duterte dynasty has for decades held a tight grip over the southern island of Mindanao and remains popular among voters. Several other Dutertes enjoyed electoral success last week, including Rodrigo’s youngest son Baste, who was elected Davao’s vice-mayor, and will assume the responsibilities of the mayoralty in the absence of his father. Nepotism is not the sole preserve of the Dutertes; the practice of political dynasticism has long hindered Philippine democracy, often at the expense of tackling substantive issues for the Filipino people.
Marcos-Duterte Feud Rumbles On
The exhausting dominance of big political families is most sharply understood through their rivalries, chiefly the ongoing feud between the Dutertes and the Marcoses. Central to this battle is the relationship between the once formidable “UniTeam” of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, which over the past 18 months has deteriorated beyond repair. The feud took on an extra layer in March when Duterte Sr. was extradited to the ICC after Marcos honored the ICC’s warrant for his arrest.
The main battleground for the Marcos-Duterte feud in May 12’s midterms was the Senate, where 12 of the 24 seats were up for grabs. The elections delivered a weaker-than-expected result for Marcos-aligned candidates, who won six seats compared to the eight that some polls predicted they would secure. By contrast, the Duterte-backed candidates won four seats, performing better than expected. While the result was not a disaster for Marcos, it could tip the balance in Sara Duterte’s favor during her Senate impeachment trial, due in July.
The House of Representatives impeached Duterte in February for a number of transgressions, including her alleged misuse of public funds and an apparent threat to assassinate the president. Duterte claims that her impeachment is politically motivated. The political dynamics in the Senate are crucial because a two-thirds majority vote would remove VP Sara from office and prevent her from running for president in 2028. Such an outcome could mark a decisive end to the current Marcos-Duterte feud, leaving the Dutertes without an heir. Last week’s result muddies the waters for Marcos, as it is now less likely that Sara Duterte will be impeached by the Senate. Her survival would guarantee that the family feud continues on toward the next presidential election.
Geopolitical Situation Looms Large
Another central dynamic of last week’s midterms was the Philippines’ relationship with the United States. According to John Malvar, the election was, for the ruling elite, “a referendum on Philippine ties with its former colonial ruler, the United States.” Marcos has sought closer ties with the U.S., bringing the Philippines back in line with its long-standing alliance with America and combating Chinese influence in regional waters. This contrasts with former President Duterte’s emphasis on securing Chinese investment for infrastructure projects and downplaying the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea.
It wasn’t just the elite who were concerned about the Philippines’ place in U.S.-China tensions. Pre-election surveying by Social Weather Stations (SWS) revealed that 83 percent of respondents backed candidates who emphasized defending national sovereignty, making it a key issue for Philippine voters. SWS’ January report stated that “public sentiment favors leaders advocating for a stronger military presence, diplomatic strategies and reinforced national defense policies.”
Perhaps this didn’t translate into the results Marcos wanted, but geopolitical concerns continue to loom large over domestic Philippine affairs and, with China’s increased assertiveness in the South China Sea, is an issue that is not going away. Shaken by the midterm results, Marcos is likely to become further reliant on deepening U.S.-Philippines ties to affirm his credibility when it comes to national security.
U.S.-Philippines relations also play into the Marcos-Duterte feud, and not just the two leaders’ contrasting foreign policies. Duterte’s camp has previously appealed to President Donald Trump to throw his weight behind the incarcerated mayor and place further scrutiny on the ICC. Emboldened by a strong midterm showing, Duterte’s allies may return to this strategy with his initial trial dates fast approaching.
Trump’s ICC Hostility Opens Door For Duterte
One of the successfully returned senators was Rodrigo Duterte’s long-time ally, former Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa. Dela Rosa, who was reelected by a comfortable margin, was responsible for executing the “war on drugs” after Duterte took office in 2016. In the wake of Duterte’s arrest, dela Rosa called on President Trump to sanction those who aided in Duterte’s extradition and pushed the Senate panel on foreign relations to engage with Trump in order to determine the owner of the Gulfstream jet that flew Duterte to The Hague.
Dela Rosa stated: “If Malacañang is cooperating with the ICC, albeit in secret… it’s the panel’s moral obligation to share our findings to President Trump so that whoever the owner is of this Gulfstream aircraft, if he has assets in America, he will be covered by the executive order signed by Trump.”
The former PNP chief went on to say that it was “very clear in the executive order issued by President Trump that whoever facilitates the interference of ICC in their allied countries would be held liable.” Dela Rosa’s comments came after the panel’s head, Senator Imee Marcos, herself a Duterte ally, also called for sanctions against the owner of the aircraft.
Dela Rosa’s appeals to Trump attempted to capitalize on the U.S. president’s hostility towards the ICC. In February, Trump lambasted the court for its pursuit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for which he sanctioned its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan. As an executive order signed by Trump stated that the U.S. “unequivocally opposes and expects our allies to oppose any ICC sanctions against the United States, Israel, or any other ally that has not consented to ICC jurisdiction.”
The vague wording led some international human rights lawyers to fear that it could apply to a Filipino, because the country has not been a member of the ICC since Duterte withdrew the country in 2019 (although the ICC still has jurisdiction over alleged crimes that took place while the Philippines was a member). However, there is no mention of the Philippines or Duterte’s specific case in the executive order.
Duterte’s bidders may also be appealing to Trump’s personal relationship with Duterte and positive attitude towards strongman leaders. The two shared a personal bond in the past, and news outlets quickly drew comparisons between the pair’s similar use of shocking language, dubbing Duterte “The Trump of Asia.” Early on in his first term, Trump congratulated Duterte on the “unbelievable job” he was doing on tackling drugs. Despite Duterte’s personal resentment of the United States, he felt a connection with fellow strongman Trump, describing him as his “friend.”
However, despite the pleas from Duterte’s allies, so far, the Trump administration’s response has been noticeably muted. There has been no executive order, statement, or tirade of social media posts related to Duterte’s arrest, unlike in the case of Israel, and there are no indications that this will change anytime soon.
Deepening U.S.-Philippines Ties Benefit Marcos
The decades-long U.S.-Philippines alliance was rocked by Duterte during his six years in office. Despite his personal affection for Trump, Duterte deeply resented the Philippines’ former colonial power, threatened to pull the plug on joint military exercises, and cozied up to Russia and China. In contrast, since his 2022 election, Marcos has made a concerted effort to reinstate the country’s longstanding partnership with the U.S. amid increased tensions with China, albeit under intense pressure from the Biden administration.
The fruits of Marcos’ labor were there for all to see at the funeral of Pope Francis, where he was pictured exchanging pleasantries with former President Joe Biden, before a similarly cordial interaction with Trump. The exchanges were a reminder that, at a time of great geopolitical upheaval, one of the few surviving legacies of the Biden administration is the U.S.’ deepening relationship with the Philippines.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s visit to the Philippines in March was the new Trump administration’s first high-level Asian visit, ahead of the two countries’ annual Balikatan joint military exercises. Hegseth stated that Washington was “doubling down” on its alliance with the Philippines and was “reestablish[ing] deterrence” against China’s growing assertiveness in the region.
The Philippines has also benefited from large exemptions to the Trump administration’s foreign aid budget freeze. The money spared sustained Washington’s $500 million commitment to modernize the Philippine security forces amid the continued threat posed by China in the South China Sea. The Philippines has also been spared from the worst of Trump’s tariffs. The archipelago was subject to lower tariffs than most other Southeast Asian nations and enjoyed certain other exemptions.
The evidence suggests that the Trump administration is committed to strengthening ties with the Philippines. This is no surprise considering the country’s strategic importance and position on the front line of China’s expanding maritime power.
Considering the current centrality of the Marcos-Duterte feud in Philippine domestic politics, it would not make good diplomacy for the Trump administration to suddenly throw its support behind Marcos’ key political rival. This dynamic has become all the more important for Marcos after a lukewarm midterm election result, reducing the likelihood of a Trump intervention on Duterte’s ongoing ICC case, and bolstering his credibility when it comes to security and defense, an issue that continues to matter to Filipino voters.
The position of the Dutertes in Philippine politics is precarious given the upcoming trials, which could still prove fatal for the vice president. However, the midterms offered the southern dynasty a lifeline that may save Sara Duterte’s career and allow her to set her sights on the presidency in 2028. With the feud far from over, President Marcos will be hoping that deepening U.S. ties will be a source of strength as he fends off the attacks that are certain to come in the months and years ahead.