Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to conduct a caste census to enumerate the proportional share of different castes in India’s population. This marks a significant shift in the position of the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had hitherto strongly opposed the demand of opposition parties for a caste headcount.
In 2021, the Modi government had told the Supreme Court of India that the population census is not an ideal instrument for collecting details on caste. The magnitude of operational difficulties can compromise the basic integrity of census data, it claimed.
It is more likely, however, that the BJP’s opposition to the caste census has been driven by its aim to build the broadest possible Hindu socio-political unity. A caste census could open many doors for caste-based socio-political mobilizations that would weaken that unity. From that perspective, the BJP’s move came as a surprise, and was described in the media as a “U-turn” and “somersault.”
Many, including opposition parties, have attributed the BJP’s shift to its desperation to win the upcoming assembly election in Bihar state, a heartland of caste-based politics.
While the government said the caste census will be part of the coming national population census, its timing has not yet been announced.
The caste system — a hierarchical, hereditary, and exploitative social system based on occupations — originated in ancient Indian society. Though predominant among the Hindus, who make up four-fifths of India’s population, Sikh, Muslim, Christian, and Buddhist communities too are divided along caste lines, largely due to the conversion of people — especially lower castes from the Hindu fold — to these faiths.
The census last counted Indians by caste in 1931 during British colonial rule. Since the first decadal census in independent India in 1951, only Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) numbers have been counted separately. SCs, who have historically suffered discrimination in the form of Untouchability, receive constitutional protection in political representation, government jobs, and education, along with the tribal people.
The main demand for a comprehensive caste census comes mostly from the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), a category the Indian government recognized only in 1990.
OBCs are composed of the middle castes who fall between the upper or forward castes and the SCs. The OBCs are estimated to be the most numerous, but the numbers remain unknown. They receive some reservations in government jobs and education, but not in political representation.
Earlier, Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party had said that the day OBCs, SCs, and STs get to know about their population, “the country will change forever.” Highlighting caste-based social inequality, he had pointed out that even though OBCs comprised 50 percent of the population, there were just three OBCs among the top 90 officers of the Indian government.
As of now, based on a Supreme Court order, the upper limit for all kinds of reservations in jobs and education is 50 percent, and the rest are in the open/general category, which the forward castes dominate.
A caste census has the potential to alter the scene by throwing light on caste-wise representation in education, jobs, and politics. It may lead to the restructuring of the existing reservation system and change the socio-economic-political power dynamics of different communities.
Three recent caste census exercises give us glimpses into what might be coming. Karnataka, Bihar, and Telangana conducted the exercises in 2015, 2022, and 2024, respectively. All surveys were carried out when under opposition-ruled governments. The Bihar and Telangana survey results led to these governments increasing the OBC reservation quota in jobs and education, triggering anxieties among the forward castes.
Karnataka’s report, released only recently, triggered several controversies. Some influential social groups alleged they were undercounted, while some disadvantaged castes protested improper categorization.
The findings of the Bihar survey released in October 2023 revealed that people from the OBC categories constitute 63 percent of Bihar’s population. Since OBCs had only a 20 percent reservation in government jobs and education, the government subsequently moved to increase OBC reservation to 43 percent. However, the move was struck down by a high court, as it took the total share of reservations to 65 percent, well beyond the Supreme Court-prescribed upper limit of 50 percent on reservations.
While the Bihar government has challenged the order before the apex court, following the Modi government’s decision to include caste in the coming census, Gandhi demanded that the 50 percent upper limit on reservations be removed. Opposition parties also demanded the extension of the reservation system to the private sector.
Amid this political slugfest, there is much speculation over the socio-political implications of a caste census. A certain consequence of such enumeration is the demand for proportional reservation. Such a demand would begin with reservations in jobs and education, but could escalate to calls for quotas in political representation. This will likely lead to protests, and likely violent ones, as was seen in 1990 in the aftermath of the government’s decision to implement reservations for OBCs in jobs and education.
Predictably, discussions on the caste census have brought into the open upper or forward caste anxieties over having their space shrunk.
Anti-reservation activist Anuradha Tiwari, who takes pride in her “Brahmin (highest caste) gene,” wrote in a social media post on X (formerly Twitter), that the general category “is genuinely worried about their future after the caste census announcement — and Rightly So.” By general category, she essentially meant the forward castes.
“We’ve been ignored, used, and betrayed by every political party,” she alleged. “Now, it’s time we open our eyes — and stand united against these unfair policies.”
Interestingly, some SC groups fear that increased OBC reservation could shrink their quota unless the 50 percent cap on reservation is removed. This is especially since calls for excluding the “creamy layer” (the more privileged among the SCs) from reservation benefits have been gaining ground.
While both the BJP and the Congress-led opposition are eyeing the OBC vote bank, which will be crucial in the upcoming Bihar state elections, how the parties deal with the upper caste anxieties and anguish needs to be seen. Both the BJP and the Congress have a significant support base among the upper or forward castes, who enjoy the advantage of socio-political and economic powers.