Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese headed to Canada this week for the G-7 Summit. The current president of the group, Ottawa, decided that the present turbulent global environment is far too broad and dangerous to be confined to a discussion between the major industrialized countries. Canada therefore invited a number of important non-member states to join the summit: Australia, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, and Ukraine. (Saudi Arabia and Indonesia were also invited, but their leaders are not attending.)
The G-7 was established with the assumption that its members share a broadly consistent worldview and enough collective power to shape international affairs to this worldview. Yet half a century on, the idea of “like-minded” states has weakened significantly, as has the collective power of the G-7 states. As an institution, the G-7 members appear as if they are grasping at a dying world, while its collective consensus has dissipated.
This is because much of the global turbulence the G-7 was designed to negate is coming from inside the house – with the chaotic and self-serving nature of the current United States administration under Donald Trump, and the wave of discontent and agitation throughout the West that he has both tapped into and inflamed. Globally, a significant divergence of worldviews is not only occurring between Western states, but within them as well. This is leading to far greater unpredictability in the global system.
Navigating this terrain with sophistication is now a national imperative for Australia.
Australia remains committed to the world the G-7 promoted. Canberra believes in free trade, multilateral institutions, clear and transparent rules, and disputes being negotiated in good faith, rather than resorting to threats or force. This may seem naive to the brutes who now hold global power, and those imitators who lust after it, but it is simply what there is for Australia. No other world could be as advantageous.
Therefore, Albanese had no option except to go to Canada and argue the case for a liberal, cooperative, world. There he finds allies in most members of the G-7 – and their cooperative efforts can help build some resilience into the international system. But it was unlikely that the G-7’s biggest player would be on board. This is the reality of international affairs for Australia now and the country needs to adjust to the idea of doing what it can with who it can, with clear eyes about the current nature of the United States.
This is something that Australia beyond the government also needs to adjust to. The Australian press spent the week leading up to the G-7 hyperventilating about whether Albanese would secure a meeting with Trump, as if this was an important symbol of status for Australia. A meeting was eventually confirmed, but then Trump cancelled it to go back to Washington early – ostensibly due to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
This may seem worrying – an indication that Australia is of little importance to Trump – but in reality it was actually a win for Australia. Albanese meeting with Trump carries more risk than reward. The unpredictability of how Trump may react to any topic, and what he may say publicly, is not in Australia’s interests. Far better for Australia to just quietly work with elements of the administration that are familiar with the country and who are somewhat serious people, and hope that Trump signs off on whatever cooperation is negotiated.
This goes against the instincts of Australian political leaders, who see meeting with U.S. presidents as important to raising their own and Australia’s standing. But this instinct fails to understand the world as it currently is. Global politics is now highly personalized. It is driven by the appetites and resentments of both key world leaders, and of their domestic constituencies. Gone is the world of states developing policy through the rational consideration of their own and global interests. International policy is now feelings-based.
Due to this, countries like Australia must now navigate the world with a keener understanding of how these personality-driven actors operate. Like dealing with a rogue uncle at Christmas, there’s a need to know when to speak and when things are better left unsaid. An early exit from the G-7 by Trump was probably just what the rest of the family needed. It provided the opportunity to have a more sober discussion about how best to keep the furniture in place in the coming years.