For decades, the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held together as a tight unit, with each country ensuring the policy of not dabbling in a neighbor’s affairs was first and foremost when presenting a united front on the international diplomatic stage.
It was a well-trodden blessing and a nasty curse for journalists trying to find out what was going on, but the policy reduced the risk of regional squabbles jeopardizing the big picture on issues, ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to conflicts in the Middle East and global “war on terror.”
And there was an added veneer, one that glosses over differences between mainland and maritime Southeast Asia, the region’s cultural, religious, and economic divides, and a diversity of governments that range from democratic to communist and autocratic.
But one by one, divisions did emerge: China’s regional expansion, overlapping claims in the South China Sea, civil war in Myanmar, transnational crimes like the disappearance and assassinations of activists in exile, human trafficking, and scam compounds.
Then the border row between Thailand and Cambodia erupted and smashed such political niceties to a pulp with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen delivering the coup de grace by sharing an audio clip, a private conversation with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
It was supposed to be an intimate chat aimed at resolving a military standoff in the Emerald Triangle – a remote region where the borders of Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos meet – amid a sharp escalation in tensions after a Cambodian soldier was killed during a shootout on May 28.
Hun Sen was a longtime friend of her family and in particular her father Thaksin. She trusted Hun Sen and referred to him as “uncle.” Paetongtarn was at pains to negotiate and even confided there were issues within her own ranks, describing one general as an “opponent.”
And then, as they say in Washington, Hun Sen threw her under a bus.
Under media law, Hun Sen published that recording by sharing it with 80-odd officials and as the contents became known, Paetongtarn’s critics were outraged, demanding her resignation for compromising national security and effectively backstabbing a senior general.
The point is that such conversations between leaders are not uncommon, as demonstrated by Wikileaks and its publication of 250,000 U.S. confidential diplomatic cables about 15 years ago. Then, like now, it’s a matter of trust. In ASEAN, it’s also a matter of you shut up, we shut up.
Hun Sen followed up, saying that Paetongtarn won’t last more than three months as prime minister and that he already knows who the next leader will be. He didn’t name the next Thai prime minister.
That was another unfathomable breach of ASEAN protocol and a hard slap in the face for Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who, as the current chair of ASEAN, did score a bounty of praise for his handling of prickly issues at last month’s summit of leaders.
This included laurels like his “emphasis on dialogue, inclusivity, and regional solidarity certainly resonated with both ASEAN leaders and external partners.” Hardly.
One important factor within ASEAN is the persistence of family dynasties, which includes Anwar, Hun Sen, and Paetongtarn, as well as Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Philippines and Joko Widodo in Indonesia – and that is just to name a few. They will do whatever it takes to ensure that the power of their families persists.
For Hun Sen, politics and the border dispute are all about shoring up his son Hun Manet, who was installed as prime minister two years ago, with a marvelous bout of nationalism designed to sideline pesky issues like human trafficking and scam compounds.
Criminal syndicates were the reality that Paetongtarn used to justify the closure of Thailand’s 817-kilometer border with Cambodia, a minnow with little bite that has steadily isolated itself ever since Hun Sen launched a relentless crackdown on his critics about nine years ago.
One has to wonder how Hun Sen would have behaved if the boot was on the other foot and his conversations were leaked – given the hundreds of people who have been harassed and intimidated, sued, charged and jailed for daring to criticize his rule.
Either way, the isolation inflicted by the crackdown and the criminal syndicates has left Cambodia’s economy in dreadful shape and now the border dispute in the Emerald Triangle has exacerbated the problems for ordinary folk.
Bans on Thai goods could lead to shortages of fruit and vegetables, oil and gas, electricity and internet connections, and further fuel inflation. That, by far, is the greatest headache at home.
Abroad, Paetongtarn’s 10-month tenure as prime minister may well be cut short by Hun Sen’s political tactics, but every leader in ASEAN will be reevaluating their personal ties and therefore their professional standing with Cambodia’s ruling family, whose inheritance is at risk.