After a three-year hiatus, India hosted the 4th meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue at the foreign minister level on June 6. This dialogue holds significant importance for India’s foreign policy and its strategic security calculus, particularly given the fluctuating regional security dynamics and heightened concerns following the April Pahalgam attack. Subsequently, the growth spurt in Central Asia and its integration into the global economy have resulted in the region gaining considerable importance in Eurasian geoeconomics. As such, the economic drivers of New Delhi’s engagement with Central Asia have been strengthened.
Despite significant promise, the avenues of bilateral collaboration remain limited between India and the Central Asia states due to a multitude of factors. For New Delhi to break the mold, it is pivotal to identify strategic niches while moving beyond symbolic ties. This is easier said than done.
Historical Ties
India’s interest in establishing links with the Central Asian states is not a recent phenomenon. India has deep historical linkages with the region, intricately connected along the ancient Silk Road. These ties date back to the Kushan Empire and extend through the origins of the Mughals, who emerged from modern-day Uzbekistan to establish their empire in India. After a period of stagnation in the 20th century following the “Great Game” – a geopolitical competition between Imperial Russia and the British Empire, with South and Central Asia as the main theater – relations were resumed in wake of the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union.
There was a growing convergence of interests between Central Asian countries and India, as both laid a strong emphasis on regional security parameters, combating terrorism, extremism, and separatism. India further wanted to maximize trade with Central Asia. Thus, it came as no surprise that between 1993 and 1995, Indian Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao visited four of the five Central Asian states. However, this early engagement was followed by a two-decade period of weakened political will due to increased attention on domestic policies, until Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian leader to visit all five Central Asian states in 2015.
The Security Calculus
Following the launch of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has become the dominant economic partner in Central Asia, with Pakistan’s role in regional trade and stability growing, too. The strengthening of the China-Pakistan-Russia triangle has impacted India’s interests in Central Asia, with New Delhi mostly viewing the region as a transit hub and gateway to Eurasia, rather than a strategic priority.
The recent dialogue can be seen in light of India’s diplomatic outreach across the world in the wake of the Pahalgam incident. India sought not only to discuss security issues but also to strengthen diplomatic relations with the region more broadly. It can be viewed as a move toward reinforcing political and economic influence in Eurasia. Given the China-Russia proximity and improved Central Asia-Pakistan relations, it is geostrategically important for India to maintain good bilateral relations with Central Asia.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which India joined in 2017, with the primary aim of collectively combating terrorism and strengthening ties with the Central Asian region, has seen inconsistent Indian engagement since 2021, largely due to its diminishing relevance in addressing Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, even though the India-Pakistan issue lies outside the SCO’s formal purview.
It is important to note how Central Asia views India-Pakistan ties, particularly in terms of their impact on regional security dynamics and economic cooperation across the Durand Line. Pakistan remains an important partner for Central Asia, given its role in regional security as a stabilizer in Afghanistan. In addition, the port of Karachi serves as a key transportation hub for the landlocked region.
The Geoeconomic Calculus
The meeting can also be viewed from an economic perspective, with all five foreign ministers emphasizing the need to increase business investments from India, as the country moves toward becoming the world’s third-largest economy. Central Asia remains a region of great promise for India, and vice versa. Traditionally partners in sectors like pharmaceuticals, natural resources, and agriculture, India now seeks to deepen economic engagement, particularly in response to the growing demand for advanced technologies in the region. The Business Council Forum, which preceded the dialogue, brought renewed commitments for cooperation in areas such as connectivity, information technology, and rare earth minerals. The participation of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) as a business facilitator reflects India’s intent to enhance private sector involvement in advancing the government’s foreign policy objectives.
Missing Links
However, beyond identifying areas of cooperation, the real challenge lies in ensuring result-oriented implementation. The repeated emphasis by all five Central Asian leaders on digital collaboration highlights the growing relevance of India’s strengths in fintech and AI.
Yet, these plans must be viewed through a geopolitical lens. While India is an extended neighbor to the region, Central Asia shares direct borders with China and Russia, both dominant players with deep economic footprints. China has a comparative advantage in the region, offset by massive investments and technological edge, which has fulfilled much of the region’s economic needs, especially post-BRI. Russia, as a long-standing partner, enjoys an ease of doing business in the region that India still struggles to match.
However, the picture isn’t entirely bleak.
What India needs is a strong political impetus, marked by the ability to bridge vision with execution. One key area is boosting trade in minerals and rare earths. With India already the largest importer of Kazakhstan’s uranium, advancing joint technological initiatives in extraction and exploration is essential in a region that holds some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals, offering long-term strategic value for India.
In case of lesser relevance of operational multimodal connectivity projects like the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) in connecting India with the region, and amid geopolitical hurdles such as the India-Pakistan deadlock that has stalled the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, pragmatic bilateral solutions become essential.
Economic ties have improved in the last decade. It is also important to note that the quantum boost which India-Central Asia relations received following Modi’s visit to the region remains unmatched and necessarily highlights the importance of such high-level engagement for long-term foreign policy goals.
The newly launched first container train between India and Kazakhstan via Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran is a step forward, potentially slashing transportation time and mitigating the distance challenge. India’s operational terminal at Iran’s Chabahar Port (Shahid Beheshti), along with plans to strengthen cooperation through a Joint Working Group with Central Asia, reflects its intent to boost regional connectivity.
Way Forward
India’s engagement with Central Asia is situated in a complex geopolitical environment. In Central Asia, Russia remains a traditional power, China is aggressively expanding its economic footprint, and other countries, like Turkiye, are leveraging cultural affinities and new opportunities. In this regard, it is important to strengthen ties, as well as increase investment in cheaper technologies and sectors of common interest like agriculture. As highlighted during the dialogue, it is imperative to hold high-level engagement to achieve long-term foreign policy goals and to build on the unmatched boost that India-Central Asia relations received following Modi’s 2015 visit to all five Central Asian states. The most constructive path forward lies in strengthening people-to-people ties, deepening cooperation through platforms like the SCO, and enhancing outreach via ITEC and other mechanisms, particularly in affordable and adaptable technologies.
Central Asia must be viewed not merely as a gateway to Eurasia, but as a strategically significant region in its own right, central to India’s long-term geopolitical and economic vision. The fourth India-Central Asia Dialogue should be seen not just as another diplomatic event, but as a potential turning point – one that reinvigorates India’s extended neighborhood policy by translating strategic intent into tangible cooperation.