The significant global trade policy activity following the United States’ announcement – and subsequent pause – of reciprocal tariffs is set to profoundly impact the future trajectory of international trade. Southeast Asia stands out, due to the staggering number of new multilateral alliances and bilateral partnerships it has found itself in the midst of. Three distinct power centers of trade – the European Union, China, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – have emerged, with ambitions to strategically ramp up trade with the region. This is being complemented by efforts to strengthen existing relationships among Southeast Asian countries, including through leveraging digitalization to boost regional trade.
Southeast Asian countries, having faced some of the highest reciprocal tariff rates under the Trump administration, were expected to proactively diversify their trade relationships. However, leading global trading powers – with the EU, China, and the GCC at the front of the line – have reached out first, showing they are more than keen to forge new partnerships.
The motivation for this outreach is not rooted in just the manufacturing or export capabilities of the region but also its growing role as a consumer of global goods. The significant economic potential of Southeast Asia is actively reshaping its competitive edge and causing tectonic shifts in global trade relationships. International trade ties look set to strengthen in the Southeast Asian region and beyond, independent of the fate of the United States’ reciprocal tariffs.
Evolving Rhetoric on Global Trade
As the 90-day pause on U.S. reciprocal tariffs approaches its July 9 end date, initial concerns about the imminent breakdown of a rules-based global trade order have notably shifted. Instead, the narrative is being shaped by overwhelming international consensus on the critical importance of a multilateral trading system. From Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel to Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, leaders from across the globe have been openly advocating for forging new alliances to not only defend but also expand a rules-based trading system. As a testament to the diversity of emerging alliances, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) recently released a joint statement with Japan, China, and South Korea, reaffirming the group’s commitment to multilateralism in trade.
The continued preference for an open, inclusive, equitable, and transparent multilateral trading system indicates the value seen in the core tenet of free trade: realizing economic gains through pursuit of comparative advantage across borders. The risk from greater protectionism is not just limited to direct tariffs, but their second-order effects, including the overall collapse in global demand for goods from export-driven economies. Hence, countries recognize the critical importance of stepping up to keep free trade alive and are proactively building new frameworks of cooperation to achieve this goal.
As economies take action to realign their trade priorities, Southeast Asia is fast emerging as an epicenter for engagement. In the 90 days since the announcement of Liberation Day tariffs, three distinct trade trends have emerged in Southeast Asia: diversification of trade partners, the emergence of new trade power centers, and an emphasis on intra-ASEAN trade.
Diversification of Trade Partners to Build New Plurilateral Alliances
Southeast Asian countries are pursuing previously unexplored trade partnerships to forge new alliances or build on existing economic groupings and plurilateral agreements.
As one example, Malaysia hosted the first ever ASEAN-GCC-China summit on May 27. While this has not been formalized into a binding alliance, it is a first for this grouping of countries, representing more than 20 percent of the world’s GDP, to unite and pursue mutual trade goals. There are three interconnected tracks that the group hopes to pursue, the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 Upgrade, the proposed ASEAN-GCC Free Trade Agreement (FTA), and indirectly, the China-GCC FTA.
Separately, in a recent joint statement, members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) announced their intention to commence trade dialogues with the EU and ASEAN. This is a novel association more for the EU than ASEAN, as the latter already has overlapping members (Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam) with the CPTPP. While the EU is unlikely to formally join the CPTPP, closer cooperation can be expected in addressing trade barriers, coordinating response to the U.S. tariffs, and harmonizing rules in new areas such as digital trade and sustainability.
Another economically formidable trade bloc consisting of ASEAN, the United Kingdom, and Australia, informally dubbed as ASEANAUK, has garnered interest recently. Its key goals are expected to be centered around promoting economic security and supply chain resilience. The CPTPP will be a key starting point, as the U.K., Australia, and four of ASEAN’s 10 member-states already belong to the trans-Pacific trade bloc.
Emergence of New Power Centers of Trade
The growing economic prominence of Southeast Asian countries has attracted the attention of leading global trade powers. Europe, China, and the Gulf states are all strategically working to expand their spheres of influence in the region to forge new economic partnerships and fill the vacuum left by the U.S.
For the first time ever, this year’s edition of Asia’s premier security forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue, featured a keynote by a European leader. French President Emmanuel Macron presented his argument for the creation of a new coalition between Europe and Asia to uphold global norms for open trade, calling it a “third way” alternative to the U.S. and China. This is reflective of Europe’s overall pivot toward outreach to like-minded rising Asian powers, which are currently among the fastest growing consumer markets globally. The EU has a number of active engagements with Southeast Asian markets. Recent developments include the signing of an Agreement on Digital Trade with Singapore to set global standards for digital trade and reinvigoration of trade negotiations with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Within days of the United States’ announcement of reciprocal tariffs, Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on a three-country tour to the hardest hit economies in the Southeast Asian region. His goal was clear: to build meaningful partnerships for safeguarding the multilateral trading system. He visited Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia to shore up trade ties and ended up signing 37, 45, and 31 agreements with these states, respectively. Following this, China reaffirmed its commitment to ASEAN, writ large, by concluding negotiations for the China-ASEAN FTA version 3.0, which includes new elements such as the digital and green economies. These are indicative of China’s bolstered intent to intensify engagement with SEA economies in a bid to stand up a broader coalition to protect the global free trade system.
As the newest bloc to strategically engage with the Southeast Asian region on trade, the GCC has been building momentum for the past few months through FTA negotiations with Indonesia, which are expected to conclude by the end of 2025. The GCC recently commenced FTA negotiations with Malaysia as well, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit. Another key outcome of this summit was the GCC signing up as a primary participant in the new ASEAN-GCC-China trading bloc. There are significant economic gains based on comparative advantage to be unlocked through these new relationships. Moreover, the GCC’s size and spending potential promise to make it a valuable trade partner for ASEAN.
Strengthened Intra-ASEAN Trade Commitment
Amid increased international engagement, Southeast Asian countries are also renewing their commitment to regional cooperation through both rhetoric and concrete actions. In a macro-level effort to boost regional trade and deepen intra-ASEAN integration, the bloc recently concluded negotiations on an upgraded ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement. This revision further lowers all remaining regional tariffs and significantly removes non-tariff barriers to improve trade flows and enhance regional supply chain resilience.
Zooming in to the bilateral level, Thailand and Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s two biggest economies, are setting up a joint government committee to promote bilateral trade. Vietnam recently upgraded its relationship with Thailand to “comprehensive strategic partnership” status, the highest such ranking used by Hanoi, to significantly expand market access and boost investment. This is Vietnam’s fourth such partnership with a fellow ASEAN country and indicates its interest in being a key participant in strengthening regional ties. There has also been increased traction for Singapore and Malaysia’s newly announced Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, which is set to enhance the economic interlinkages between the two countries and be a platform for boosting ASEAN’s overall supply chain resilience.
Looking Ahead
All the above movement in trade policy has occurred in just the last three months. The speed is a testament to the agility with which countries are willing to move to preserve an open global trading order. While a complete pivot away from the United States is not on any country’s agenda, there is an emerging transition from the previous “China + 1” strategy to a “U.S. + n” approach. Here “n” stands for proactive trade diversification by forging new relationships with not just one, but a number of countries.
New trade alliances are excellent for realizing previously untapped comparative advantage-related gains and building closer geopolitical ties. This is something that middle powers such as the Southeast Asian countries are increasingly excelling at. If this continues, it looks like the future may belong to middle powers leading global economic growth through greater autonomy and close cooperation among each other. Such a truly multipolar world with numerous players championing free trade may have sounded fantastical just a few months ago, but apparently a lot can happen in 90 days.