By late 2024, Iran’s hardening approach toward Afghan migrants and refugees was becoming increasingly clear, as deportations of undocumented Afghans intensified. What was once a fragile system of tolerance has now shifted to an effort to strip hundreds of thousands of Afghans of their legal status and deport them from Iran.
The Iranian government’s decision to revoke bargeh sarshomari (census slips), documents that once provided limited but vital protection to over 2 million Afghans, has plunged many Afghans into precarity. Rebranded as illegal foreigners, these individuals now face an aggressive deportation campaign in Iran. Families who had built lives in Iran have been subjected to arrests, detention, and forced return. Women, children, and the elderly are now among those being expelled, often without access to legal recourse or humanitarian support.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan remains critically unprepared to receive or reintegrate hundreds of thousands of returnees. Many are already trapped in cycles of renewed displacement and irregular migration, fueling smuggling networks and exposing more people to risks along mixed migration routes.
The rollback of protection space for Afghans is no longer a risk; it is a grim reality. Across the region, deportations and pushbacks of Afghans from Pakistan, Turkiye, and Tajikistan are converging with Iran’s crackdown to form a coercive regime of forced returns. The revocation of bargeh sarshomari marks a turning point, stripping more than 2 million Afghans of their semi-regularized status and rendering them undocumented and at risk of deportation.
Iran’s Revocation of Protection Leaves Many Afghans Facing an Uncertain Future
Iran’s Afghan population includes multiple legal and quasi-legal categories: holders of Amayesh cards (formally recognized refugees from earlier displacement waves), passport and visa holders (many of them temporary labor migrants), and the more recent group of census slip holders (Afghans who arrived primarily after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021). These slips, known locally as bargeh sarshomari, provided holders with provisional recognition and limited access to essential services such as education and healthcare. The primary aim was to manage the presence of undocumented Afghans and integrate them into a formal system; however, it was temporary by design and offered no durable legal status.
By the end of 2022, approximately 2.6 million Afghans had been registered through this process. However, these census slips offered no path to permanent residency or formal refugee status. Their temporary nature left holders vulnerable to policy shifts. In early 2025, the Iranian government abruptly declared these slips as no longer valid and ordered an estimated 2 million census slip holders to leave the country by June 5, 2025. The state narrative framed this shift as part of a wider campaign of samandehi (regulating foreign nationals), citing the need to regulate undocumented migration and alleviate pressure on public services. The offer for Afghans to re-enter Iran legally with a visa is out of reach for many due to logistical and political barriers to obtain documentation in Afghanistan.
Suddenly reclassified as undocumented, many Afghans have lost their access to healthcare and education and face detention and deportation. This policy shift also takes place amid an increasingly hostile public discourse and xenophobia. Economic instability, inflation, and political uncertainty have fueled anti-migrant sentiment, further exacerbated by state-aligned media linking Afghans to social disorder and crime. This approach reflects a broader hardening of migration policies in the region, where states are increasingly resorting to coercive measures rather than protection.
Deportation Is Now a Policy and Expanding in Scope
Deportations from Iran have intensified in both scale and nature. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), between January and May 2025, more than 450,000 Afghans returned from Iran, including 30,266 families. Unlike earlier campaigns that predominantly targeted single, undocumented men, the current phase increasingly includes entire families, women, children, unaccompanied minors, and the elderly. The proportion of families among returnees from Iran, for example, increased from 11 percent in January to 44 percent in May this year.
The methods of removal have also grown harsher. Raids on homes, workplaces, and construction sites have become widespread, while deportation now functions as a routine instrument of the state policy. Afghan families are often separated during deportations, with individuals detained in Iran while their relatives are expelled to Afghanistan. Children of families with census slips have been expelled from school. Aid organizations report that Afghan deportees face abuse and extortion during the deportation process, including beatings, confiscation of belongings, degrading transport conditions, and handover to the Taliban at border crossings without proper coordination or support.
The psychological toll is devastating. Many Afghans face not only forced return but a profound loss of dignity and hope. In a recent tragic example, a former Afghan Air Force pilot reportedly died by self-immolation in Mashhad, Iran, in May 2025 in front of a Kefalat office, after receiving an exit notice under the new policy. His case reflects the desperation among Afghans for whom return is impossible due to political affiliations, security fears, or lack of support networks in Afghanistan. Afghan women and girls, many of whom had accessed education in Iran through bargeh sarshomari, now face the loss of schooling as these documents are revoked. Families report rising anxiety and despair among female students who face the dual threat of losing both their legal presence in Iran and their right to learn.
Iran and the Taliban: An Uneasy Pact on Migration
Iran has sought to frame its deportation campaigns as part of a coordinated return process with the Taliban authorities. In May 2025, for example, the facilitation of returns to Afghanistan was a key topic discussed during the visit to Tehran by a high-level Taliban delegation, led by Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. Yet these talks are not transparent, and it remains unclear whether any public agreements on returns exist. What is clear, however, is that any coordination remains fragile and shaped more by political interests than by protection considerations.
For Tehran, this provides a diplomatic buffer, a narrative to deflect international criticism. For the Taliban, the return of large numbers of Afghans is a double-edged sword: an opportunity to claim legitimacy by welcoming back exiled Afghans, but also a potential source of political instability, as returnees may include critics and opposition figures. Afghanistan is unprepared to absorb mass returns as the Taliban lacks the capacity, resources, and will to support tens of thousands of returnees each month. Reintegration infrastructure is minimal. The funding cuts and suspension of USAID operations by the Trump administration has compounded this vacuum, leaving thousands without access to housing, psychosocial support, or job opportunities.
Border provinces are saturated, aid agencies are overstretched, and even basic assistance – food, healthcare, shelter – is often out of reach. The result is a vicious cycle of humanitarian suffering: expulsion fuels poverty, poverty drives desperation, and desperation drives further irregular migration – a dynamic that undermines the very migration management Iran claims to pursue.
Forced Returns of Afghans Escalate Across the Region
Iran is not acting alone. Since late 2023, Pakistan has intensified its deportation campaign against Afghan nationals. In April alone, more than 135,000 Afghans left Pakistan, followed by approximately 67,000 in May. The Pakistan’s “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan” targets undocumented migrants, including long-term resident Afghans and those awaiting resettlement.
Turkiye has continued to operate removal centers and conduct charter deportation flights to Kabul throughout 2024. In parallel, it has continued pushbacks along its eastern border with Iran, where Afghan migrants attempting to enter Turkish territory are being systematically forced back.
Tajikistan, though hosting smaller numbers of Afghan refugees, has also begun deportations. In December 2024, at least 80 Afghan refugees were forcibly returned, many holding valid refugee documents. More recently, in late May 2025, Tajik authorities deported 49 Afghan migrants, including individuals with residence permits and valid visas.
In Europe, far-right parties in Germany and Austria are pushing to resume deportations to Afghanistan. European states are exploring legal justifications for returning rejected asylum seekers, moves that could undermine the principle of non-refoulement.
In the United States, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced in May the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Afghanistan, effective July 14, 2025, affecting approximately 11,700 Afghan nationals.
What links these diverse geographies is a shared political calculus: the shifting of responsibility for refugee protection and the use of migration as a political tool. Afghan refugees are increasingly caught in this dynamic, treated as political leverage with diminishing regard for their rights, safety, or protection needs.
A Humanitarian Response is Urgently Needed
The situation unfolding in Iran and across the region is not simply a question of migration management; it is a test of the international community’s commitment to protection. The shrinking protection spaces for Afghans is accelerating a humanitarian crisis that cannot be addressed through coercion or deportation. For many, return to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is not viable. The country remains unsafe, especially for women, ethnic minorities, political opponents, and those linked to former institutions. With no reintegration capacity, returnees face destitution, stigmatization, and renewed displacement, with many embarking again on perilous migration journeys.
There is an urgent need to shift from punitive approaches to rights-based, protection-centered responses. Iran must suspend deportations – particularly of women, children, and long-term residents – and restore legal pathways to temporary protection. Regional actors must recognize that unilateral expulsions deepen instability and drive irregular migration. A revitalized multilateral framework, notably the UNHCR-led Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees (SSAR), is essential to uphold dignity, improve protection, and support voluntary return where feasible.
The choice is stark: pursue coercion or uphold the core principles of humane migration policy. The lives of millions of Afghans hang in the balance.