Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, suffered a significant setback in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (TMA) election held on June 22. Despite a modest rebound in public support, the LDP continues to face headwinds, with approval ratings still lagging behind disapproval. According to NHK, the approval rating stands at 39 percent, while disapproval is at 42 percent, highlighting persistent public dissatisfaction.
The LDP not only lost its standing as the largest party in the Tokyo Assembly but also recorded a historic low in terms of seats won. Komeito also faltered, securing only 19 seats – four fewer than in the previous election. It marked the first time in decades that Komeito failed to win every seat it contested.
Tokyo Governor Koike Yuriko’s regional party, Tomin First no Kai, won the most seats, though no party secured a majority in the 127-member Assembly. The TMA election was a critical test for Ishiba’s leadership and his party, and the LDP failed it.
The next major hurdle is the national upper house election on July 20, in which half of the 248 members of the House of Councillors will be elected. While the upper house holds less sway over policymaking than the more powerful House of Representatives (which selects the prime minister and Cabinet), a poor performance could be politically fatal. Following a dismal showing in the 2007 upper house election, then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzo resigned, ushering in five years of political instability and annual leadership changes until Abe’s return in 2012.
Media outlets have widely described the Tokyo results as a “leading indicator for the looming national election” and a “bellwether for this summer’s House of Councillors race.” While LDP officials downplay any direct impact, Tokyo’s political weight makes the impact hard to dismiss.
Currently, the ruling coalition controls the 248-seat upper house, which is a “permanent” chamber with staggered six-year terms – half the seats are up for election every three years. With 125 seats contested this cycle (including one vacant seat), the coalition needs to win at least 50 seats to maintain a majority, based on Ishiba’s modest goal of 125 total seats, including the 75 not up for election.
Why set such a low bar? The ongoing political funding scandal, which emerged under Ishiba’s predecessor, Kishida Fumio, continues to damage public trust. Despite efforts to distance his administration from the scandal, Ishiba has failed to satisfy voters.
On top of the scandal, rising living costs – particularly a spike in rice prices – have increased public dissatisfaction. In response, the LDP appointed the popular Koizumi Shinjiro as agriculture minister and proposed a one-time 20,000 yen cash handout per resident. However, these measures have fallen flat with the public.
As with the House of Representatives election last year, the LDP faces an uphill battle in the upcoming vote. Yet the opposition is not poised to capitalize fully. The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), which gained ground last year, is under fire for fielding a scandal-tainted candidate in the national proportional bloc, leading to declining support.
A decisive factor will be the 32 single-member districts. Unified opposition candidates have historically been crucial to unseating LDP incumbents, but so far, fewer than half of these districts have finalized candidates.
The timing of the election – Sunday, July 20 – falls during a summer holiday weekend, which may depress turnout. Low turnout typically benefits well-organized parties like the LDP and Komeito and disadvantages opposition parties, which rely more heavily on unaffiliated or “floating” voters.
Economic issues will dominate the campaign. The ruling coalition is cautious about cutting the consumption tax, while opposition parties are pushing aggressively for tax relief. While public trust in the LDP has eroded, the opposition’s populist messaging has yet to galvanize widespread support.
Should the ruling coalition fail to secure the necessary 50 seats, pressure on Ishiba to resign could mount. However, without a clear successor or a secure lower house majority, LDP lawmakers may hesitate to trigger a leadership change. Japan’s political future remains deeply uncertain. But one outcome seems likely: the LDP-Komeito coalition will remain in power – less because of its own strength, and more because of a fragmented and weakened opposition.