In early May, India and Pakistan were on the brink of war: they exchanged missile fire, sent drones across each other’s borders to conduct attacks, and engaged in aerial combat. The conflagration was thankfully short lived; after four days, the two sides declared a ceasefire, causing some analysts to dub the events the “100-hour war.” But the episode, however brief, may have reshaped deterrence dynamics between the nuclear-armed neighbors in a more lasting way.
In the following interview, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert and a senior fellow (nonresident) at the Asia Pacific Foundation, explains why the May 2025 clashes were unique from previous India-Pakistan strikes. “The scale and the intensity of the recent conflict was so much greater than what we’ve seen for so long,” Kugelman told The Diplomat.
Even after the ceasefire, the India-Pakistan relationship is far from returning to the status quo ante. India has “suspended all trade with Pakistan, closed down the only open land border, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty,” Kugelman pointed out. “These are drastic steps, and, in the case of the IWT move, unprecedented.”
With the benefit of time and hindsight, how serious was the India-Pakistan crisis of early May? What was different in the latest round of strikes, versus previous episodes in 2019 and 2016?
It was very serious, given the level of escalation and the scale of the hostilities. I’d argue it was the biggest test of the nuclear deterrent since both countries formally became nuclear states in 1998 – with the only possible exception of the massive military mobilization along the border in 2001 and 2002.
What we saw in May was part of a consistent pattern in India-Pakistan escalation dynamics over nearly a decade: Each side is comfortable using increasing amounts of limited conventional force below the nuclear threshold. In 2016, India staged what it described as “surgical strikes” – commandos crossing the border to target terrorists on the other side. In 2019, India launched air strikes on Pakistan, resulting in a Pakistani response and a brief dogfight in the skies before the conflict wound down.
In the most recent case, Operation Sindoor, India carried out air strikes that were greater in scale than in 2019, resulting in a more muscular Pakistani response. And, unlike in 2019, there was another phase in the conflict beyond the initial strike and counterstrike: Both sides launched missiles and drones against each other.
This consistent pattern, however, may mask just how different this crisis was from the previous ones – and in ways that amplify just how serious the escalation risks could be when the next conflict breaks out. Four key differences stand out.