Myanmar’s military junta has further extended a temporary ceasefire in order to facilitate earthquake relief and reconstruction efforts, following a call from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at its summit last month.
In a statement dated May 31, and published widely in state-run media the following day, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s office announced “a further extension of the temporary ceasefire period” until the end of June.
This, it said, was necessary “to continue implementing reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts in the earthquake-stricken areas with momentum” and to “restore a genuine and durable peace.” It also said that it was necessary to move forward with preparations for the widely-criticized election that it has scheduled for the end of the year.
On March 28, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar, causing widespread destruction along the Sagaing fault, which runs north-south through Myanmar’s central dry zone, destroying bridges, roads, schools, pagodas, government buildings, and thousands of homes. The disaster killed around 3,800 people and injured more than 5,100, according to the most recent junta figures.
The Myanmar military’s statement was nearly identical to those that have attended its three previous ceasefire announcements. The first was announced on April 2, lasting until April 22. The junta later extended this until the end of April after talks between Min Aung Hlaing and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Bangkok. On May 7, it further extended this until the end of May.
The latest extension comes after last week’s ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings in Kuala Lumpur, during which the region’s leaders issued a statement on the situation in Myanmar. This expressed appreciation for the junta’s three previous ceasefires, as well as those announced by resistance groups, and called for the “sustained extension and nationwide expansion of the ceasefire in Myanmar.”
This it said should be undertaken as “an initial step towards the cessation of violence, with a view to create a safe and conducive environment in ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid and assistance, to reach those in need and establishing an inclusive national dialogue, consistent with the Five-Point Consensus.” The latter is a reference to ASEAN’s peace plan, formulated three months after the February 2021 coup, which calls for an “immediate cessation” of violence and political dialogue involving “all parties” to the country’s conflict.
Nearly from the moment of the ASEAN peace plan’s inception, the military has done little to implement its most important terms, prompting calls for ASEAN to drop the policy and adopt a more muscular approach toward the junta. While ASEAN has barred political representatives of the junta from attending its summits and high-level meetings, it has continued to affirm its support for the Five-Point Consensus in the face of criticisms by resistance groups and civil society organizations.
Based on recent comments from Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the current ASEAN chair, it is clear that the Southeast Asian bloc views the junta’s ceasefires as a potentially productive concession that could open the way to dialogue. While Saturday’s ceasefire announcement did not mention ASEAN, it is evident that by extending the ceasefire, the junta hopes to normalize its relations with ASEAN.
In recent days, however, ASEAN has been subject to harsh criticism for taking the recent ceasefires at face value, given that they have reportedly done little to prevent junta attacks on civilian populations, including the aerial bombing of a school in a resistance-run part of Sagaing Region on May 12. The attack reportedly killed more than 25 people, most of them children.
In its response to the ASEAN statement, the opposition National Unity Government (NUG) noted “with deep concern” the fact that “despite its own declared ceasefire, the military junta continues to conduct airstrikes, artillery attacks, excessive use of force against civilians, and other acts of violence, including the destruction of property and loss of innocent lives.” The NUG has claimed that nearly 300 civilians have been killed in airstrikes during the junta’s ceasefires.
In a statement on May 29, Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) noted that while ASEAN foreign ministers were meeting in KL, “a Myanmar junta airstrike on a wedding in Kyaukkyi Township of Bago Region killed at least 10 civilians, including the bride and two children.”
“That ASEAN continues to default to the redundant Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar shows an alarming lack of urgency, commitment, and creativity in tackling the biggest regional crisis in half a century,” Marzuki Darusman of SAC-M said in the statement.
Indeed, while there is no easy option for ASEAN on Myanmar, the zero-sum nature of the current conflict makes any possibility of an inclusive national dialogue along the lines suggested by the Five-Point Consensus unlikely. As things stand, the military junta appears bent on pushing through with its planned election and a “transition” to a civilianized government that it hopes will attract diplomatic support and create an off-ramp for the conflict, while the NUG and some of the country’s largest resistance groups remain committed to extricating the military permanently from Myanmar’s political and economic life.
ASEAN’s view that the junta’s ceasefires could lay the groundwork for peace might make sense if they had actually resulted in a reduction in the regime’s attacks on civilians. Without that, it is in its own way a striking recognition of how difficult the bloc’s task on Myanmar continues to be.