Thailand’s commerce minister says that trade talks with the United States are making good progress, expressing confidence that the two sides could agree to lower tariffs to as low as 10 percent.
Speaking to reporters yesterday, Pichai Naripthaphan said that Thai and U.S. officials would hold talks this week via video link, but that a date for in-person ministerial-level talks had not yet been set.
Pichai did not provide details on how his team would secure a reduction in the 36 percent “reciprocal tariff” that President Donald Trump imposed on Thailand in April during his “liberation day” tariff announcement.
“We expect to see more clarity this week,” he said, according to the Bangkok Post. “Don’t worry, we have everything prepared and our negotiations should be successful.”
The minister added that the U.S. government had shown its willingness to extend the 90-day postponement that it announced shortly after the tariffs for nations demonstrating a sincere commitment to negotiating with Washington. The period is set to expire on July 9.
“We have shown our intention to negotiate, and I am confident we can secure a favourable tariff rate,” he said, adding, “I expect a 10 percent tariff for Thailand.” Whether this includes the “baseline” 10 percent tariff that Trump imposed on every nation during his April announcement, or will be added on top of it, remains unclear.
Last month, the commerce minister’s colleague, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira (no relation), announced that Bangkok had submitted a proposal to Washington that aims to address the trade imbalance, which totaled $45.6 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office. This included enhanced market access for U.S. exports and pledges to increase imports of goods such as natural gas, corn, and soybean meal.
Like Vietnam, it also involves efforts to crack down on transshipment violations that have enabled Chinese and other suppliers to perform an end-run around existing U.S. tariffs. Through these various measures, the finance minister estimated that Thailand could cut its trade surplus with the U.S. by up to $15 billion, or around a third.
Commerce Minister Pichai was also upbeat about the export figures for May, which he said would be released on Wednesday.
It is hard to read whether the minister’s optimism is warranted. Certainly, the Thai government has good reasons to worry about the impacts of a significant tariff, which threatens to further restrict Thailand’s export-dependent economy. The U.S. was Thailand’s largest export market last year, accounting for 18.3 percent of its total exports, and the Pheu Thai-led government that took office in 2023 has struggled to revive the economy, including the important tourism sector.
The U.S. tariffs have prompted ratings agencies and international financial institutions to revise downward their already modest growth projections for Thailand. In April, the World Bank trimmed its projections of Thai growth for this year from 2.9 percent, a prediction made in January, to just 1.6 percent. Around the same time, Moody’s Ratings announced that it was downgrading Thailand’s rating outlook from “stable” to “negative,” citing the likely impacts of the Trump tariffs, which it said would have a “material negative impact” on the country’s economy. The Asian Development Bank, in its April regional update, was more optimistic, projecting 2.8 percent growth in 2025.
Whether or not the Thai government succeeds in convincing the Trump administration to drop the bulk of its “reciprocal tariff,” the stakes for the country – and its politically embattled Pheu Thai government – are high.