Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government is on the verge of collapse following the withdrawal of the second-largest party in its coalition, in connection with her handling of the ongoing border crisis with Cambodia.
In a statement late yesterday, the Bhumjaithai party, which holds 69 seats in the House of Representatives, announced that it was pulling out of the Pheu Thai-led coalition due to the impact on the nation of a leaked recording of a phone call between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
The call addressed the ongoing border dispute that has seen relations between the two neighbors deteriorate markedly since an armed clash in an undemarcated area of the border on May 28. The crisis has led to a cascade of actions by both sides that have restricted border crossings and trade, threatening open rupture between Bangkok and Phnom Penh.
In its statement, Bhumjaithai accused Paetongtarn of “compromising Thailand’s honor, national dignity, the people, and the military,” The Nation reported. It added that it would “work with all Thai people to support the army and officials who safeguard the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and interests of Thailand in all ways.”
In the recording (a full Thai-language transcript is available here), Paetongtarn sounds deferential, calling Hun Sen “uncle” and vowing to “take care of whatever” he needed. Most explosively, she effectively accused the commander of Thailand’s Second Army Region, which is responsible for the disputed border, of inciting anti-government sentiment in connection with the issue. She told Hun Sen that the general is “completely aligned with the other side” and blamed the military for “saying things that aren’t beneficial to the country.” She also said that despite Hun Sen’s frequent provocative Facebook posts about the border situation, she refused to respond, because she “loves and respects him.”
Paetongtarn subsequently confirmed that the recording was real, and accused Hun Sen of releasing the clip for his own political gain. “It’s now clear that Hun Sen’s goal is to boost his popularity without regard for the impact on bilateral ties,” she said, according to the Thai Enquirer.
In response, Hun Sen confirmed in a Facebook post that he had recorded a 17-minute call with Paetongtarn on the evening of June 15 and shared it with around 80 people before a 9-minute excerpt was leaked. “As is customary, in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misrepresentation in official matters, it was necessary to record the conversation for the sake of transparency, including for internal Cambodian purposes,” Hun Sen said, according to Kiri Post. He added that he was “prepared to release the entire 17-minute and 6-second audio in its entirety,” which he did subsequently late yesterday. (Leaking recordings of phone conversations is something that Hun Sen has done many times to his domestic opponents.)
The domestic political reaction inside Thailand has been swift, from both sides of the political spectrum. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the opposition People’s Party, immediately demanded that Paetongtarn step down.
“I call on the prime minister to take responsibility by dissolving the Parliament,” he said in a statement. “This is to return the power to the people and prevent some groups from using this mistake to create situations that will hurt our democratic system.”
Hours later, Bhumjaithai announced its withdrawal from the coalition.
Bhumjaithai joined the Pheu Thai-led coalition government as part of the so-called “devil’s pact” that followed the May 2023 general election. This pact saw the Pheu Thai party and its rivals in the conservative establishment join hands, in order to prevent the formation of a new government by the progressive Move Forward Party, the now-dissolved predecessor to the People’s Party, which won a plurality of the votes. As part of this pact, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the patriarch of the Pheu Thai party and the father of Paetongtarn, was allowed to return from self-exile after nearly 15 years.
However, the relationship between Pheu Thai and its conservative partners (Bhumjaithai in particular) has grown “tenuous,” as Ken Lohatepanont detailed in an article for East Asia Forum this week.
Bhumjaithai, led by Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, has in recent months begun to chafe against Pheu Thai’s leadership; it has stymied several Pheu Thai policies and taken an increasingly conservative and pro-monarchist line which, given the history of clashes between the Shinawatras and the conservative forces arrayed around the Palace, contained an implicit provocation. In response, Thaksin has moved to clip Bhumjaithai’s wings, including by attempting to take back the important Interior Ministry from Anutin.
From outside the tent, royalist and conservative activists, many of whom have never been able to shake off their mistrust of Thaksin, have revived their assaults on Pheu Thai and the Shinawatras. Complaints filed by royalist “serial petitioners” prompted the removal from office of Srettha Thavisin, who led the Pheu Thai government during its first year, for a minor breach of ethics. This opened the way to the appointment of the 38-year-old Paetongtarn, who had never before held elected office. Conservatives have in turn accused of her incompetence and acting as a proxy for her influential father, who also now faces legal scrutiny for the circumstances following his return to Thailand in August 2023.
The growing tensions with Cambodia have created ample opportunities for royalist and conservative opponents of the Shinawatras to drape themselves in the flag and attack the government for failing to stand up for Thai interests. In particular, critics have focused on the supposedly close relationship between the Shinawatra and Hun clans, which they argue have prevented Paetongtarn’s government from doing what is necessary to defend Thai sovereignty.
The audio recording that was leaked yesterday, in which Paetongtarn effectively positions herself with Hun Sen on the “opposing side” to the Thai military, has merely validated these criticisms and undermined her political authority, perhaps fatally. Paetongtarn’s criticism of the military is potentially perilous, given recent history: the Royal Thai Army launched coups d’etat against Shinawatra-led governments in both 2006 and 2014. Former opposition lawmaker Piyabutr Saengkanokkul warned that the controversy over the leaked audio could fuel talk of another military intervention.
Bhumjaithai’s withdrawal has left Paetongtarn’s government with a narrow majority of 254 out of 500 seats in the House of Representatives. As of press time, it was unclear whether other coalition partners would follow Anutin and his party out the door, but with several poised to meet later today, Paetongtarn’s premiership is hanging by a thread.