On June 12, Israel launched a significant military operation targeting Iran, marking a dramatic escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. This operation, described as a preemptive strike, aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear program and eliminating key military leaders associated with it. The ongoing strikes exchanged since then by Israel and Iran will have significant implications for India, given its strategic interests and relationships with both nations.
The Israeli airstrikes focused on multiple military and nuclear sites across Iran, including facilities in Tehran and other strategic locations. Reports indicate that the strikes resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian officials, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Major General Hossein Salami, among others. The Israeli military confirmed that the operation was intended to disrupt Iran’s nuclear capabilities and missile programs.
Iranian officials vowed to respond decisively to what they view as an act of aggression. Following the Israeli strikes, Iran declared a state of emergency and launched retaliatory missile attacks against Israel. Reports indicate that Iran fired dozens of missiles, with some reaching Israeli territory, leading to casualties and damage.
The conflict is bad news for India for several reasons.
First, Iran serves as India’s conduit to Central Asia. India has invested billions in Iran’s Chabahar port – a competitor to Gwadar port in Pakistan – to establish a direct link with Central Asia. Central Asia is crucial for India, not only regarding energy security but also due to its abundance of rare earth minerals, but India does not share a direct border with the region, limited trade potential. The Iran-Israel conflict will jeopardize India’s connectivity plans and impede the long-anticipated progress of the International North-South Corridor.
The regional escalation will also sever the connection between India and Afghanistan, a trade relations that also runs through Chabahar. In that scenario, China will swiftly supplant India in Afghanistan, as it has been endeavoring to do for an extended period. The recent China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral dialogue was just the latest example of Beijing’s efforts in that regard.
In addition, the Iran-Israel strikes will put India’s energy security and economy at risk. India is highly dependent on oil imports, with over 80 percent of its crude oil supply coming from the West Asia region, including Iran and other Gulf countries. The conflict has already led to a spike in global oil prices, which could rise further if tensions escalate. Analysts predict that oil prices could reach $120 per barrel, significantly impacting India’s economy by increasing inflation and straining the current account deficit. Higher oil prices would also affect transportation costs, leading to increased prices for goods and services across the board, which could squeeze household budgets and impact economic growth.
The conflict could also pose security risks for Indian nationals in the region. With a significant number of Indians residing in both Israel (around 18,000) and Iran (around 10,000), any escalation in hostilities could endanger their safety. The Indian government has already issued travel advisories and is closely monitoring the situation to ensure the safety of its citizens.
Meanwhile, Israel’s attack on Iran will enhance Pakistan’s strategic significance. An incapacitated Iran will not be favorable for India, but it may confer further leverage to Pakistan within the region.
Despite being an Islamic nation, Iran does not maintain a strong relationship with Pakistan; instead, Iran holds more importance for India as it seeks to compete with China-Pakistan plans in the region. Bilateral relations between Iran and Pakistan have deteriorated in recent years, with the two even exchanging cross-border strikes in January 2024 over accusations of hosting cross-border terrorist groups.
After Operation Sindoor, India’s own strikes on Pakistani targets in retaliation for a terrorist attack, both India and Pakistan engaged in a vigorous campaign to solicit support in different capitals. India was particularly concerned about the United States’ perceived covert support for Pakistan. U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire was met with disapproval in New Delhi. The United States’ effort to place Pakistan and India on an equal plane has been criticized by India. Adding to New Delhi’s concerns, the U.S. chief of Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, described Pakistan as an “exceptional counterterrorism partner,” despite India’s emphasis on Pakistan’s role in fostering terror groups post-Operation Sindoor.
Should the tensions between Iran and Israel intensify, Pakistan – and its lengthy border with Iran – will become a valuable geopolitical asset for the United States. This might enhance U.S. military and financial assistance to Pakistan, which India would undoubtedly oppose.
India maintains amicable relations with both Israel and Iran, the result of a delicate balancing act stretching back decades. While India has strengthened ties with Israel, particularly in defense and technology, it also values its historical and cultural connections with Iran. An escalation in the conflict could force India to take a clearer stance, which may alienate one of its partners. This balancing act is crucial as India seeks to maintain its influence in the region and protect its strategic interests. India will find it exceedingly challenging to maintain a balanced relationship with both countries during armed buildup.