Central Asia and the European Union are at present prioritizing the development of trade, economic, and transport links. These areas are interrelated and cannot be considered in isolation.
Europe remains one of the key players in Central Asia. The EU is Uzbekistan’s third-largest trading partner after China and Russia.
Thanks to the GSP+ preference system, Uzbekistan has the opportunity to export more than 6,000 commodity items into the Eurozone duty-free. This contributes to an increase in trade and freight traffic. In 2024, the volume of international freight traffic in Uzbekistan was around 60 million tons. The share of European destinations continues to grow, reflecting the steady increase in mutual trade turnover, which reached $6.4 billion by the end of 2024. Uzbek exports accounted for $1.7 billion of this total. The main export commodity (54 percent) was chemicals, including radioactive elements such as uranium. Germany and France are among Uzbekistan’s ten largest trading partners, and the role of raw materials factor is important here too.
Central Asia and the EU are connected by three transport corridors: the northern route through Russia and Belarus, the middle route through the Caspian Sea, and the southern route through Iran.
The Northern Corridor includes both rail and road routes. Although it is the most developed in terms of infrastructure, its functionality is limited due to anti-Russian sanctions. The Middle Corridor is 2,000 kilometers shorter than the Northern Corridor, but due to its multimodality, it is inferior in terms of freight delivery speed. Nevertheless, its projected carrying capacity is estimated at 25 million tons per year, which promises great prospects for the development of trans-Caspian transportation.
Cargo traffic along the Southern Corridor is the lowest, at up to 1.8 million tons, primarily due to technical issues. Anti-Iran sanctions also have an impact. Despite these difficulties, routes through Iran to Turkiye and Europe have potential for increased development, especially given the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan highway.
Around 80 percent of all transport along the aforementioned corridors is by rail. However, there is a significant imbalance in the distribution of potential freight flows to Europe among the Central Asian countries. According to recent studies, Kazakhstan accounts for more than 93 percent of the total volume, while Turkmenistan accounts for 3 percent, Uzbekistan for 2.3 percent, Kyrgyzstan for 1.1 percent, and Tajikistan for just 0.03 percent.
Uzbekistan’s involvement in servicing transport and transit flows to Europe is minimal. In order to improve its position in this area, the country is implementing two major transport projects.
The first is the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which will shorten the land trade route between East Asia and Europe by 900 kilometers and reduce delivery times by 7-8 days. Consequently, the Southern Corridor will become the shortest monomodal route connecting two global economic centers. It could also branch off to the Middle East (the Persian Gulf countries) and even the African continent.
It should be noted that a few years ago, work began on establishing the China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkiye-EU railway corridor, which makes use of Kazakhstan’s transit potential. Active steps are also being taken to develop the multimodal route from China to the EU via Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. Once the international highway from China to the Uzbek border through Tajikistan is completed, another land route along the China-Europe axis will be established that is shorter than the existing one.
While the launch of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will reinforce the importance of the southern transit route of the Middle Corridor, it will not be able to compete equally with the Kazakh section, as some experts predict or fear. This is because two transit routes pass through Kazakhstan – the northern and central routes – and both run through relatively flat terrain, unlike the railway line through mountainous Kyrgyzstan. Consequently, improving the Middle Corridor will only enable two Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, to increase their exports of transport services, as they have unimpeded access to the Caspian Sea. For the other republics in the region, this corridor will become one of the additional routes for delivering export cargo to Southern Europe.
The second major project is the construction of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway, with access to the ports of the Indian Ocean. In the future, this Kabul Corridor may be connected to the Northern and Middle Corridors, forming the basis for new intercontinental logistics chains. In the first scenario, countries of Northern Europe, Russia and Belarus will gain land communication with the Indian subcontinent. In the second scenario, states of the South Caucasus, Turkiye, and parts of Europe will have a similar opportunity. In both cases, Uzbekistan will act as a transit hub, thereby strengthening its strategic position in the region.