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This week our top story comes from Indonesia, where preparations for Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim holiday marking the end of Ramadan, have been accompanied by grave concerns. As Teguh Maulana explains, outbreaks of COVID-19 and vaccine supply problems loom large, threatening a spike in cases after the holiday. We also have an interview with Commissioner Gary L. Bauer of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom on China’s growing influence in the Pacific.
The Diplomat Brief
May 12, 2021thediplomat.com
Welcome to the latest issue of Diplomat Brief. This week our top story comes from Indonesia, where preparations for Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim holiday marking the end of Ramadan, have been accompanied by grave concerns. As Teguh Maulana explains, outbreaks of COVID-19 and vaccine supply problems loom large, threatening a spike in cases after the holiday. We also have an interview with Commissioner Gary L. Bauer of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom on China’s growing influence in the Pacific.
Story of the week
With COVID-19 Rampant, Indonesia Braces for the Holidays

POLITICS

With COVID-19 Rampant, Indonesia Braces for the Holidays

What Happened: The Muslim festival of Eid al-Fitr – this year falling between May 13 and 14 – usually involves large numbers of people traveling home, sparking concerns that this year’s holiday will only worsen Indonesia’s pandemic problems, already exacerbated by a lack of vaccine access.

Our Focus: While the Indonesia government has officially banned mudik -- the traveling of migrants back to their home villages for the holidays -- again this year, there is widespread concern that just like last year enough people will defy the ban to see COVID-19 cases rise in the ensuing weeks. Combined with inconsistent government messaging and vaccine supply problems, Indonesia faces the prospect of a steep rise in cases.

What Comes Next: “Those who insist on participating in mudik this year, in defiance of the government’s ban,” writes Teguh Maulana, “may end up paying” a heavy price, one that could have been avoided by more equitable international cooperation on vaccine distribution.

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Behind the News

INTERVIEW

Gary L. Bauer

Commissioner Gary L. Bauer of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom on China’s growing influence in the Pacific: “I would argue to policymakers in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, that a Pacific down the road that has to get up every morning trying to figure out how it’s going to please the leadership in Beijing is going to be a Pacific that is much less hospitable to the desires, the ambitions, of the people of those countries.”

Read the interview
This Week in Asia

Northeast Asia

COVID case numbers are rising in Japan, as are calls to cancel the Olympics

Japan is in the middle of a COVID-19 wave, sparking extended states of emergency in major cities -- including Tokyo, set to host the Summer Olympics in less than three months. With protests mounting calling for the government to cancel the Olympics altogether, the government faces a tough decision.

Find out more

South Asia

Nepal's Prime Minister Oli defeated in trust vote

After months in the making that marked a particularly tumultuous phase in Nepalese politics, Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli lost a crucial vote of confidence in Nepal's parliament on May 10. However, whether Oli's defeat marks the end of his prime ministership remains an open question whose answer rests in deeply fractured political arrangements. Meanwhile, Nepal is staring at a massive second wave of COVID-19 infections.

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Southeast Asia

COVID-19 testing scam undercovered in North Sumatra

Following complaints of false positives by passengers arriving through Kualanamu International Airport in Medan, North Sumatra, a police investigation revealed employees of a pharmaceutical company recycling nasal swab testing kits, in another case employees repackaged used kits for sale.

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Central Asia

Uzbekistan faces criticism after sentencing of blogger

Uzbek blogger Otabek Sattoriy was given a 6.5 year sentence this week following convictions on extortion and libel charges which human rights advocates say were absurd. The case, for some, is a true measure of progress on media freedoms in Uzbekistan.

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Visualizing APAC

What are the economics of the China-India-Sri Lanka triangle?

See the full picture
Word of the Week

POLITICS

Halk Maslahaty

The “People’s Council” is currently the upper chamber of Turkmenistan's parliament. A body with that same name has held other positions in the Turkmen political architecture over the years. While the Turkmen legislature is ineffective in a traditional sense, it has undergone a series of evolutions at the behest of the president.

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The Diplomat BriefBell AH-1Z Viper
Beyond Xinjiang: Xi Jinping’s Ethnic Crackdown

The Diplomat Magazine | May 2021

Beyond Xinjiang:
Xi Jinping’s Ethnic Crackdown

This month, our cover story traces China’s increasingly coercive approach to ethnic minorities, in Xinjiang and beyond. We also analyze the state of South Korea’s political landscape after crucial by-elections, document the real-world impact of Rodrigo Duterte’s polarizing presidency in the Philippines, and parse Kyrgyzstan’s local elections for hints about the country’s future. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.

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An Asian Space Odyssey: Civil, Military, and Commercial Space Ambitions

DRI REPORT NO. 03 | March 2021

An Asian Space Odyssey: 
Civil, Military, and Commercial Space Ambitions

Five experts survey the state of play when it comes to major Asia-Pacific powers’ civil, military and commercial space plans, with a focus on medium- and long-term trends when it comes to capabilities and intent, as well as their impact on space governance and international security.

Read the Report
Diplomat Risk Intelligence