DIPLOMACY

What Happened: In early January, Kazakhstan’s Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for – and received – a deployment of CSTO troops to help quash unrest in Almaty. At the time, the unprecedented move sparked concern about the role of Russia in Kazakhstan and Central Asia writ large. Various commentators aired opinions about a possible “debt” Nur-Sultan would owe to Moscow. However, when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, Kazakhstan distanced itself from the conflict – including reportedly rejecting a request for Kazakh troops to join the operation.

Our Focus: “Russia may have had its own reasons to assist Kazakhstan in January and so there is no ‘debt’ owed to Russia by Kazakhstan at all,” writes Kazakhstan-based researcher Aliya Askar for The Diplomat. “But as the situation stands now, if there is a ‘debt,’ Nur-Sultan isn’t paying it.” Kazakhstan has outright refused to follow Russia in recognizing two regions of Ukraine as independent states. Kazakhstan’s government also allowed a protest against the war to take place in Almaty – despite having a long history of shutting down protests on sensitive topics. Indeed, if we take the war in Ukraine as a test case, almost two months after the CSTO operation, “we can observe that there has been no major shift in Kazakhstan’s internal or external politics in Russia’s favor,” Askar concludes.

What Comes Next: We shouldn’t read too much into this positioning, of course – for historical, cultural, and security reasons Kazakhstan is not going to break with Russia entirely, or even directly criticize its invasion of Ukraine. Still, as Askar notes, “Kazakhstan abstaining from outright supporting Russia is a signal loud enough to indicate the Kazakh government’s divergence from the Kremlin’s chosen course.” That, in turn, could potentially open the way for Kazakhstan to play a mediating role in the crisis – Nur-Sultan, after all, is trusted by Russia, but shares with Ukraine existential concerns about Russia waking up one morning to decide it no longer believes in the independence of a former SSR.

INTERVIEW

David Sacks, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), on how one-man rule in China increases the odds of a Taiwan war: “Once Xi essentially ensconces himself as the leader of China for life, I do not see many internal barriers to him ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan or resorting to force if that is the path he is determined to take… there are few checks on his power, and it is unlikely he would take advice from others that contradicts his own thinking.”

Northeast Asia

On March 9, South Koreans went to the polls to decide on their next president. As of launch time for the newsletter, the results were still pending, with exit polls showing a virtual dead heat between the leading candidates: Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party. It's been an especially nasty presidential campaign, with both sides marred by scandal and plagued by low public trust. A tight election result – and possible allegations of voter fraud, which have been baselessly raised by fringe conservatives in the past – could further polarize South Korea at a time when it faces daunting national challenges.

South Asia

Sri Lanka is in the midst of an unprecedented foreign exchange crisis, with less than $1 billion left in reserves. Colombo has repeatedly refused to go to the IMF for assistance, instead preferring to seek credit lines and currency swaps from both China and India. But those are short-term solutions to a problem decades in the making – and likely won’t stave off a full default in the coming months.

Southeast Asia

Voters in the Malaysian state of Johor will go to the polls this Saturday, in a contest that could have far-reaching ramifications on the national political landscape. Politics in Johor, an economic powerhouse bordering Singapore, has mirrored the revolving door at the national level, with three chief ministers since the last general election 2018. After leading the Barisan Nasional coalition to a substantial victory at a state election in Melaka late last year, a further success could help consolidate the position of Prime Minister Ismail Saabri Yaakob ahead of the next general election, due by July next year.

Central Asia

On March 12, Turkmenistan will hold a presidential election a full two years early. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, 63, is ready to step away from the presidency and his son, Serdar, 40, will take over the post. The election is a formality in a country with no political competition, but there are plenty of unknowns beyond election day. We don’t know much about Serdar as a leader or whether this really means the father will step aside for the son. Maybe Berdimuhamedov will simply transcend the presidency and go on ruling from behind the throne.

Last week, 141 countries voted to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the United Nations General Assembly. Five countries voted against the resolution; 35 abstained – including 10 in the Asia-Pacific.

SECURITY

Anti-pemi, Korean for “anti-feminist.” Feminism vs. anti-feminism was a key cleavage issue in the presidential election.