Security

What Happened: The deadly attack on Crocus City Hall outside Moscow, Russia, was a tragic reminder that Islamic State’s branch in Afghanistan – Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) – has grown into a potent force in transnational terror. Following its success in Russia – and mass casualty attacks in Iran and Turkey earlier this year – ISKP now has its sights set on a high-profile attack in Europe.

Our Focus: The Russia attack was not an aberration, analysts Peter Smith, Levent Kemal, and Lucas Webber point out for The Diplomat. “ISKP’s retooling from operations focused within its base of operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan to a focus on external attacks and operational plots has resulted in a surge of both foiled plots and successful attacks either claimed or attributed to ISKP over the past year,” they write. Like the Crocus City Hall attack, successful and attempted attacks in other countries leverage marginalized communities, often Central Asian migrants. ISKP has been extending its networks for both funding and radicalization in Turkey, in particular, which could serve as a gateway to Europe.

What Comes Next: “Besides Russia, Iran, and Turkey, ISKP has been previously credited with attacks in the Maldives, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, while plots have been intercepted in Germany, the Netherlands, Qatar, Turkey, India, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia,” the authors note. ISKP’s propaganda apparatus is ramping up calls for major attacks in Western Europe, especially at upcoming sporting mega-events. Law enforcement in target countries must be on guard, as “ISKP has shown both the capability, intention, and persistence needed to carry out another successful attack.”

INTERVIEW

Journalist Edward Acton Cavanough, author of “Divided Isles: Solomon Islands and the China Switch,” on how Solomon Islands’ decision to drop Taiwan for China caught the world by surprise: “The Solomons’ switch became one of the most important geopolitical events in the Pacific for decades. It fundamentally reshaped the region’s geopolitics. But it caught many observers flat-footed, because there hadn’t been nearly enough attention paid to the determinants of such an event within Solomon Islands.”

Northeast Asia

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his second visit to China late last week, in a trip highlighted by the airing of grievances on both sides. Blinken publicly emphasized U.S. displeasure over China’s support for Russia, while Beijing continued to push for an end to U.S. sanctions and export controls on Chinese tech firms. As expected, neither side was willing to budge on these issues. In China, many hawkish commentators questioned the wisdom of hosting Blinken in the first place, complaining that he had only some to “issue an ultimatum to China.”

South Asia

The People’s National Congress (PNC), the party of Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu, won big in the parliamentary elections last week. Between the PNC itself and aligned independents, Muizzu’s faction notched 72 out of 93 seats. The main opposition, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) managed just 12. It’s a big vote of confidence for Muizzu – and his much-discussed “India Out” agenda for the Maldives.

Southeast Asia

The head of Vietnam’s parliament resigned this week, becoming the latest senior member of government to leave office amid an intensifying anti-corruption campaign that has become intertwined with factional rivalries. Vuong Dinh Hue, the chair of the National Assembly, one of the country’s top four political posts, stepped down shortly after his longtime assistant was arrested on charges of abusing his position and power for personal gain. Hue’s resignation came after President Vo Van Thuong vacated his post last month, just a year after replacing Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who also resigned in connection with the anti-corruption campaign. Political infighting at the top of Vietnamese politics has already fostered perceptions of political instability, but could well intensify in the weeks and months to come, as factions and individuals jockey to fill the vacant posts – and seek advantage ahead of the Communist Party Congress due in early 2026.

Central Asia

Much of Kazakhstan has been devastated by terrible spring flooding, the product of heavy snow and a rapid spring thaw. As recovery gets underway, the state is attempting to parcel out compensation for those affected. But it’s also meting out fines for critics, including a hooliganism charge for a journalist who used profanity in an Instagram story and a false information charge against an activist for a clearly satirical joke.

Despite government efforts to attract FDI, a recent survey found a plurality of Americans are wary of foreign investment in the United States.

Society

Trudoizbitochnost, Russian for “excess of labor,” is generally used as the explanation for Tajikistan’s massive outflow of migrant workers – conveniently avoiding any need for economic reform.