Diplomacy

What Happened: Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited China from July 8-10, just over two weeks after wrapping a two-day trip to India. She brought with her a massive delegation of nearly 200 people, along with a clear focus on the economy – particularly the quest for a $5 billion financial aid package to ease Bangladesh’s foreign currency crisis. In the end, Hasina left with a pledge of just 1 billion Chinese yuan – equivalent to under $140 million – in assistance, and few concrete commitments among the 21 MoUs signed during the visit. Some commenters drew a direct link between the apparent snub and Hasina’s decision to grant India preferential treatment during her visit to New Delhi earlier this summer.

Our Focus: “We don’t see any mentionable achievements from the China visit,” Md. Touhid Hossain, a former foreign secretary of Bangladesh, told The Diplomat. Hossain believes this is because Bangladesh has “recently come out from maintaining a balanced relation with China and India… Because we have taken many decisions recently despite knowing that China will be unhappy.” Worse, Hossain and other experts believe Bangladesh has little to show for its concessions to India, which includes stonewalling China on development projects due to Indian security concerns. But others say China’s reluctance to provide funding is purely economic: “I think China’s own assessment about our ability, and the state of our financial management, worked as factors behind not granting budget support,” M. Humayun Kabir, a former ambassador of Bangladesh to the United States, argued.

What Comes Next: Regardless of the rationale behind the decision, the lack of a financial aid package from China is a blow to Hasina’s government, as it will exacerbate the foreign reserves shortfall. And it’s not just the missing aid package; Bangladesh did not receive firm commitments on prized development projects, including the Payra port area. China, which is undergoing its own economic woes, has recently become more hesitant about committing large sums of money on overseas infrastructure projects. With economic realities combining with disgruntlement over Dhaka’s perceived pro-India tilt, it’s clear that China is in no rush to bail out Bangladesh’s economy.

INTERVIEW

Ayesha Jehangir, a research fellow at the Center for Media Transition at the University of Technology Sydney and the author of “Afghan Refugees, Pakistani Media and the State: The Missing Peace,” on the Pakistani media “war” against Afghan refugees: “There is a constant attack on Afghan refugees in Pakistan, with narratives portraying Afghan refugees as enemies of the state, a security threat, burden, or in other stereotypical ways.”

Northeast Asia

The CCP’s Central Committee is convening its Third Plenum from July 15-18 – around eight months behind the usual schedule. The Third Plenum following each National Party Congress is hotly anticipated, as it sets the stage for economic policy over the next five years – a tradition dating back to the famous Third Plenum of 1978. This year, the stakes are high as China’s economy continues to stall and foreign investors lose confidence. Chinese media and the CCP itself have been sending out signals of major reforms in the works, but observers expect any changes to be modest.

South Asia

Pakistan’s government has a new tactic to keep former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on the outs: seeking a full ban of the political party. The announcement came after Khan and the PTI have won a series of legal victories, from acquittals for Khan in previous convictions to a ruling awarding the PTI additional seats in Parliament under a quota reservation system. Rather than accepting defeat, however, the government is upping the ante, mulling treason charges against Khan and key allies. Khan and the PTI remain highly popular in Pakistan, as shown by the party’s surprise success in the 2024 general elections.

Southeast Asia

Following a physical clash near a disputed reef in the South China Sea in late June, China and the Philippines have pursued ways to defuse tensions – while not budging on their conflicting territorial and maritime claims in the waters. In the latest development, China and the Philippines agreed to set up a new emergency hotline directly linking their presidential offices, to help avoid escalation during sensitive encounters. The hope is that the presidential line will avoid the issues that plagued previous “maritime communication” mechanisms, where Philippine officials complained that messages simply went unanswered in times of crisis.

Central Asia

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's annual summit earlier this month saw the group expand to 10, with the addition of Belarus. But despite the inclusion of a close Russian ally, the SCO’s Eurasian heartland is increasingly China’s to dominate. Indeed, this year’s SCO summit may have been Russia’s first as a clear junior partner to Beijing.

Thousands of Bangladeshi students have been protesting against a newly reinstated quota system for government jobs, culminating in a violent clash that left at least five dead.

Economy

Literally “downstreaming” in Indonesian, the term refers to Joko Widodo’s policy for promoting value-addition in Indonesia’s natural resource industry, especially nickel.