Economy

What Happened: Electric vehicles have become another battleground in the geopolitical competition between China and the United States and its allies. In recent months, both the U.S. and the European Union have rolled out tariffs on Chinese EVs, claiming they are necessary to address issues of overcapacity. However, a narrow focus on tariffs overlooks the true complexity of the EV industry. At each step of the supply chain – raw materials, intermediate goods, and the finished product – there are potential bottlenecks as the U.S. and China jockey for control.

Our Focus: The EV supply chain touches on many other critical industries: critical minerals (lithium, nickel, rare earths, etc.), batteries, and semiconductors, to name a few. Each of these, in turn, is the focus of its own raft of government policies designed to guarantee steady supply and prevent market shocks. Access to these materials can even reshape the final product entirely – for example, U.S. carmakers “initially favored AC induction motors to mitigate rare earth constraints,” whereas “China’s abundant rare earth reserves have made permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) the dominant motor technology in Chinese EVs.” Even data regulations have knock-on effects for the EV industry as cars become more and more intelligent.

What Comes Next: “A supply chain perspective provides a comprehensive and nuanced picture of the geopolitics of EVs,” scholars from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, conclude in their analysis for The Diplomat. “Unfortunately, competition, accusation, and techno-nationalism overshadow the cooperation and the ‘green’ aspect of the industry.” It’s not only tariffs complicating the EV market, but the overlapping and conflicting policies at every step of the supply chain.

INTERVIEW

Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House, on China’s calculations vis-a-vis the Russia-Ukraine war: “There is also a strong view among many Chinese international affairs specialists that even if Beijing sided with Europe, Europeans would not have responded in kind; and the transatlantic alliance countering China would not be weakened by China’s stances on this war.”

Northeast Asia

Every year, Nagasaki – the last city in the world to be struck by an atomic bomb – holds a peace ceremony commemorating the tragic event. This year’s edition was attended by Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, but not the ambassadors of some of Japan’s closest allies, its fellow G-7 members. The U.S., France, Germany, and others stayed away over a perceived snub: Israel’s ambassador was not invited, a decision Nagasaki’s mayor claimed was motivated by security concerns, not politics. However, Nagasaki has previously called for a ceasefire in Gaza. Japan is home to a small but growing movement of sympathy and support for Palestine and especially Gaza, where Israel has wage a brutal campaign in retribution for Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israeli civilians.

South Asia

August 15, 2024, marks the three-year anniversary of the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul – and the group’s return to de facto rule over the entire country of Afghanistan. The Taliban have declared the date a national holiday, but many Afghans see little to celebrate. The takeover of Kabul was preceded – and followed – by a violent campaign targeting figures in the previous Republic government. Women’s rights have been severely curtailed, with few options to work or even leave the house. Girls are banned from school after finishing primary education. Universities have been reshaped entirely to focus on Islamic education that does little to boost students’ job prospects. It’s hard to overstate the changes, both practical and psychological, that have unfolded in Afghanistan since August 15, 2021.

Southeast Asia

Thailand’s progressive movement has regrouped after last week’s court-ordered dissolution of the Move Forward Party (MFP). On August 7, the Constitutional Court disbanded the party, which won a plurality of votes at last year’s general election, over its campaign pledge to amend the country’s harsh royal defamation law. Eleven leading MFP politicians were also banned from politics for 10 years. MFP officials quickly announced the formation of a new “People’s Party,” with which they hope to win enough votes at the next election to form government alone. The new party boasts a logo almost identical to that of the MFP, and an English name that recalls the elite group of French-educated civil servants and soldiers that ended Thailand’s absolute monarchy in 1932. With the new party now attracting millions of baht in donations, the stage is set for another clash with the country’s conservative establishment.

Central Asia

Last week, Central Asia’s five presidents met in Astana, Kazakhstan, for their sixth consultative meeting. Although there was no breakthrough on a previously proposed friendship treaty (Tajikistan and Turkmenistan remain holdouts), it’s nevertheless clear that the format is entering a new phase. Integration appears to be back on the menu. Despite hesitation on the parts of some, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – the region's largest states and most significant economies – are forging a path forward together.

Ladakh, along the disputed China-India border, has borne the brunt of military tensions between the two neighbors.

Politics

Phak Prachachon, the Thai name of the newly formed People’s Party. While the names in English are the same, the Thai name of the new party is different from the party behind the 1932 revolution (คณะราษฎร or Khana Ratsadon).