Politics

What Happened: The arrest of Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, the former head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has roiled the country. Hameed is the first ISI chief to face prosecution; notably, he’s also seen as a close ally of ousted – and now jailed – former Prime Minister Imran Khan. “Imran Khan needed Faiz Hameed to become the prime minister, and Faiz Hameed needed Imran Khan to become the army chief,” a senior intelligence officer told The Diplomat. Hameed’s fate is intertwined with Khan’s, as the former prime minister faces pending legal cases.

Our Focus: Hameed was Khan’s biggest backer within the military – hoping in exchange to get the coveted post of chief of army staff. When he was passed over for Gen. Asim Munir, it represented a schism within the military leadership. “These divisions [in the army leadership] exist based on personal inclinations. They are inevitable because the military has been so heavily involved in politics since the inception of the country,” former military commander Lt. Gen. Talat Masood told The Diplomat. When Hameed’s faction lost the power struggle, that contributed to a dramatic falling out between Khan and the military leadership, resulting in his arrest. Now analysts suspect Khan and Hameed might face new charges resulting from riots that followed Khan’s arrest.

What Comes Next: In Pakistan’s politics, however, there are no permanent friends or enemies where the military is involved. Khan had the military’s backing to oust the PML-N government in 2018; the PML-N got the nod in this year’s elections. Now Khan is hopeful that he could get back into the army’s good graces – especially as the PML-N is deeply unpopular. Khan has toned down his criticism of the military, while showing no willingness to reconcile with his political opponents. “There are signs of flexibility, especially about talks [with the army]. Sometimes the [anti-establishment] statements are less compared to the past,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, the author of “The Military and Politics in Pakistan.” Khan’s fate thus hangs in the balance: he could either receive a harsh sentence, or make a triumphant comeback – and either path would have damaging repercussions for Pakistan’s democracy.

INTERVIEW

Sherri Goodman, the first U.S. deputy undersecretary of defense for environmental security and the author of “Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military leadership and the Fight for Global Security,” on the importance of addressing climate change for U.S. national security: “China is the opponent on the other side of the chess board, but climate change is reshaping the board. To ignore it is to put yourself at a disadvantage.”

Northeast Asia

The South Korea-U.S. annual joint military exercises, Ulchi Freedom Shield, started on August 19 and will conclude August 29. Despite North Korea’s insistence that such drills are “invasion preparation” and thus a severe provocation, Pyongyang has been relatively quiet. But on August 26, state media said that North Korea had tested new exploding drones and reiterated the commitment to roll out advanced drones “as early as possible.”

South Asia

Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Ukraine, six weeks after a similar visit to Russia. From Kyiv, Modi reiterated that India is on “the side of peace,” raising hopes that New Delhi – one of the few governments to have cordial relations with both Moscow and Kyiv – might propose a formal plan for ending the conflict. So far the Modi government has been fairly hands-off when it comes to mediation, but it may see a path to one-up China in their competition for global influence.

Southeast Asia

Indonesian pro-government lawmakers were this week forced to abandon changes to election laws that would have advantaged President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his political coalition at regional elections in November. Protests erupted across the country late last week after a parliamentary legislative committee drafted changes to election laws that overrode two Constitutional Court rulings handed down on August 21. The rulings opened the way for a key rival of Jokowi and President-elect Prabowo Subianto to run in the election for Jakarta’s governor, and blocked Jokowi’s youngest son from doing the same in Central Java. On Sunday, facing a wave of public anger, lawmakers and the General Elections Commission agreed on a revised version of the changes that upheld the court rulings. While civil society hailed the decision as a victory, it does not rule out more attempts to co-opt and preempt opposition once Prabowo takes office in October.

Central Asia

When Ukraine went on the offensive and crossed into Russia’s Kursk region in early August, Russia’s allies were mostly silent. As the incursion continues, Moscow finds itself increasingly isolated, with its allies, both within and outside the CSTO, extending neither military nor political support. Russia hasn’t called on the CSTO for support, yet, but Moscow has to wonder who would come if it did?

Young brides, aged 18 or 19, are becoming more common in Uzbekistan, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of total registered marriages.

Society

Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, Sanskrit for “the world is one family,” is an ancient concept that has been adopted as a slogan for India’s diplomacy – including military diplomacy.