Security

What Happened: On September 18, for the first time, a Chinese aircraft carrier passed between Japan’s Yonaguni Island and Iriomote Island, entering the “contiguous zone” that lies just outside a country’s territorial waters. The close approach of the Liaoning sparked alarm and a formal protest from Japan. However, it needs to be seen as part of a broader trend in PLA activity ultimately aimed not at Japan, but at Taiwan.

Our Focus: Yonaguni, one of Japan’s southwestern islands, is just over 100 km to the east of Taiwan. And China’s navy is increasing its presence in the area beyond the headline-grabbing transit of the Liaoning. Researchers Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang of the Research Project on China’s Defense Affairs note that relatively fewer PLAN ships are using the Miyako Strait, which is farther north, closer to Okinawa Island, with an increasing proportion transiting near Yonaguni – and Taiwan. “From 2018 to 2023, PLAN vessels passing through the Miyako Strait accounted for between 54.8 percent and 100 percent of all Chinese navy passages through the waters between Japan’s southwestern islands,” they write. This year, the proportion of PLAN vessels using the Miyako Strait dropped to 43 percent, while over a quarter of such transits now use the waters around Yonaguni. “The increase in frequency of PLAN passages through this region despite the risk of electronic signal detection suggests that China may have designated the Yonaguni Channel as a critical area for operational training,” Ma and Tang note.

What Comes Next: China is stepping up naval activity to the immediate east of Taiwan – including not only the Liaoning’s passage but, more importantly, frequent forays by hydrographic survey ships and anti-submarine warfare helicopters. The information and operational expertise gathered would help China’s navy in the event of a contingency. Japan and Taiwan both have reasons to be concerned about the increase in PLAN presence near Yonaguni, Ma and Tang conclude. Their governments need to find a way to work together to share information and coordinate their own operations in increasingly congested waters.

INTERVIEW

Marites Vitug, a veteran Filipino journalist and co-author of the new book “Unrequited Love: Duterte’s China Embrace,” on the limits of Rodrigo Duterte’s pivot to China: “Duterte changed the country’s foreign policy unilaterally, true to his autocratic character. He did not consult with key members of his Cabinet… Thus, it was difficult for Duterte to change the strategic thinking of the defense and security establishment and the foreign affairs department – and sway it towards China.”

Northeast Asia

On September 27, Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, will elect a new president. The internal party poll will also determined Japan’s next prime minister – at least until the next general election. It’s an unusually crowded race; nine candidates have registered, making it likely there will be a run-off between the top two contenders. For many voters, the election is a test of whether the LDP can truly change its ways. The two favorites in national polling are 43-year-old Koizumi Shinjiro and long-time LDP iconoclast Ishiba Shigeru – but with LDP Diet members holding a disproportionate say in the ultimate result, party leadership elections don’t always align with public opinion.

South Asia

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in the United States this week to attend a U.N. summit as well as a Quad Leaders’ Summit hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden. The trip packed a punch, from a visit to Biden’s personal home to discussion of U.N. reform at the Summit of the Future. However, Modi also spent less time than normal in the U.S., departing before the U.N. General Assembly convened.

Southeast Asia

Singapore this week opened the trial of former Transport Minister S. Iswaran, its first corruption trial involving a Cabinet member in decades. A high-ranking member of the People’s Action Party (PAP), Iswaran faces a total of 35 charges, most of them under Section 165 of the Penal Code, which forbids civil servants from obtaining anything of value from any person with whom they are involved in an official capacity. Prosecutors allege that the 62-year-old received more than $400,000 worth of gifts, including concert tickets, golf clubs, and bottles of whisky, from two businessmen. On the opening day of the trial, prosecutors said that they would only move forward with five of the charges, but would request that the remainder be considered during sentencing. Iswaran then pleaded guilty to all five charges. While the PAP has an impressive track record on anti-corruption, it seems eager to move quickly through the trial, lest it cast a shadow over the country’s next general election, which is due to be held by November 2025.

Central Asia

On September 24, the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly's General Debate kicked off. The debate provides a powerfully equal platform for leaders of all nations, regardless of size and clout, to address the world. For Central Asia, the speeches – typically delivered by presidents or foreign ministers – provide an opportunity to clarify their positions on major global issues. After more than two years, the Russian war in Ukraine is a key issue to track across the Central Asian states' speeches.

Source: AIS Data

The proportion of Chinese naval vessels passing between Taiwan and Japan’s Yonaguni Island – rather than traveling south of Taiwan to reach the Pacific Ocean – has dramatically increased this year.

Politics

Jimintō wo bukkowasu, or “destroy the Liberal Democratic Party,” was a famous campaign slogan during Koizumi Junichiro’s successful leadership bid in 1999. This time around, LDP leaders are also promising rejuvenation for the party – although not in quite as colorful of terms.