Security

What Happened: For the last two decades, Portugal’s liberal immigration approach has been an outlier in the European Union and has attracted people from around the world, including many from South Asia. For South Asians seeking to earn better wages, Portugal was one of the few avenues to legally migrate to Europe; from 2018-2022, over 86,000 South Asians took advantage of the pathway to gain a Portuguese passport. But in June of this year, the door suddenly slammed shut, stranding many South Asians already in Portugal. And more continue to arrive, now by extralegal means, as the demand for their labor remains high.

Our Focus: Dr. Alexandra Pereira, a postdoctoral fellow specializing in Nepali migration to Portugal and Europe, estimates that at least 40,000 people, “mostly Indian and Nepali migrants,” are stuck in legal limbo, with the pathway to legal residency now blocked. “[T]hese migrants keep coming because there is labor demand. South Asians are in a dangerous situation because they are more vulnerable to the smugglers and to the mafias that bring them to Portugal and to exploitation by their employers,” she said. An immigration lawyer in Lisbon told The Diplomat many migrants may be unaware of the legal changes in Portugal: “Many people are still being lured into coming here even though there is no way now to get a passport… Owners know that workers who come after June 3 don’t have the right to documents anymore, but they will give people fake contracts anyway.”

What Comes Next: Alberto Matos, a longtime labor activist in Portugal’s Alentejo region, described the change: “They closed the door to legalization, and opened all the windows to the black market.” People from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh pay 10,000 or even 20,000 euros to labor brokers, many with ties to organized crime, for the chance to come to Portugal. Upon arriving in Portugal, however, they find that the intermediaries charge them exorbitant fees for cramped housing and even transport to work, leaving almost nothing to send back home, much less pay down their debt. Add in the remote location of the farms where many migrants work, and conditions are ripe for labor abuses: underpay, lack of water and food, and long hours. “If you are expecting a better life, good income, it is not possible,” one Nepali labor activist in Portugal warned.

INTERVIEW

Avinash Paliwal, author of the book “India’s Near East: A New History” on the flawed foundations of the “Act East” policy: “There is a structural tension in New Delhi’s approach towards its near east. India desires better economic connectivity with Bangladesh and Myanmar to develop India’s far eastern states. But it also wants to limit, or heavily regulate, the movement of people.”

Northeast Asia

On October 27, Japan will hold a general election for the lower house of the Diet. It’s the first major test for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, who won office through an internal LDP election and is now seeking the seal of public approval. The big question is whether the change in leadership will boost the LDP’s popularity, which had fallen to rock-bottom under former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio for reasons that had little to do with Kishida personally. Japan’s opposition parties – from the Constitutional Democratic Party to Nippon Ishin – are hoping to capitalize on public disgruntlement to bolster their seat counts. Even if the LDP maintains its majority, a loss in seats could spell a short tenure for Ishiba.

South Asia

Over four years since deadly clashes in the Galwan Valley, the China-India standoff along their disputed border appears to be reaching an end. The two sides signed an agreement on patrolling arrangements and disengagement along the Line of Actual Control. It’s not yet clear, however, whether this agreement covers all the friction points or just some of them. Still, the timing was pointed: With Indian Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi both in Russia for the BRICS summit this week, the agreement paved the way for the leaders’ first formal meeting since the border standoff began in early 2020.

Southeast Asia

Vietnam's parliament this week selected an army general as state president, replacing To Lam, the chief of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV). Gen. Luong Cuong, 67, was voted into the position unanimously, and promised to help build a “socialist” and “rich” nation while “strengthening national defense and security.” Cuong’s appointment, which was widely predicted by Vietnam watchers, means that Lam no longer sits atop two of the “four pillars” of the Vietnamese political system. It thus ends – at least for now – a period of unusual political churn created by the country’s intense anti-corruption campaign and the frenzied race to succeed former party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, who died in July. It also strengthens the influence of security personnel, who now occupy three of the country’s top four political posts.

Central Asia

Women commit far fewer murders than men in Uzbekistan. Examining who, why, and how Uzbek women kill reflects on the conditions women face in their daily lives. Domestic violence, and the often dismissive attitude of law enforcement toward such reports, was a factor many of the cases examined. Pushed to the edge, some women lash out and others defend themselves – to deadly ends.

A young Nepali man picks raspberries on a farm in the Alentejo region of Portugal.

Diplomacy

Yí Měi lùn, Mandarin for “Doubt America Theory” or “America Skepticism Theory,” a narrative pushing the idea that the U.S. is an unreliable ally seeking to exploit Taiwan for its own purposes.