Politics

What Happened: U.S. voters will pick their next president on November 5: either current Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, or former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party. The two candidates offer different visions for foreign and economic policy. Governments in the Asia-Pacific are thus watching closely – and every country has a different stake in the election. The Diplomat’s authors examine a selection of 13 regional countries to tease out what their government’s preferences might be. In other words, if the Asia-Pacific countries could vote, whom would they choose: Harris or Trump?

Our Focus: The biggest takeaway is that there is no clear consensus on which candidate foreign governments might prefer. U.S. allies like Australia, Japan, and South Korea might prefer the stability and predictability of a Harris administration, but other important partners like India have reason to favor Trump, who is less likely to criticize human rights issues abroad. Meanwhile, countries in Southeast and Central Asia – and even China – don’t expect much change in U.S. policy either way – a telling sign of the points of convergence between two politicians often held up as opposites.

What Comes Next: Asia-Pacific governments have been hedging their bets, trying to develop contacts with both campaigns so they can start on the right foot regardless of the outcome. It’s a hard-won lesson from 2016, when Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton shocked the world and left many governments scrambling to develop ties with Trump’s future administration. Now, with less than one week left until the polls, Asia-Pacific governments will wait to see what their region can expect from U.S. policy starting in 2025.

INTERVIEW

Dr. Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, on North Korea’s claim of a South Korean drone in Pyongyang: “The airspace over the Workers’ Party headquarters, home to Kim Jong Un’s office, was breached, resulting in a state of emergency in North Korea. The Kim regime’s decision to disclose this information to the public likely stems from the fact that many residents of Pyongyang may have already seen the [anti-regime] flyers.”

Northeast Asia

After years of low approval ratings, Japanese voters finally had a chance to express their discontent with the ruling LDP at the ballot box – and they did. The LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority for the first time since 2012. However, no other party won more seats, meaning Japan has a hung parliament. As the horse-trading and coalition-building unfolds, Japan’s once-marginalized opposition parties have been elevated to kingmaker status. Will the LDP convince an extra party to back its continued government, or can the diverse opposition groups find a common cause?

South Asia

Over the summer, Jeromy Pittmann, a U.S. Navy Reserve commander with 20 years of service, was convicted of providing false recommendation letters to more than 20 SIV applicants in exchange for bribes. This week he was sentenced to 30 months in prison. Pittmann’s crime, which officials say is a rare instance of fraud in the SIV program, risks further damaging the reputation of a program that advocates say fulfills U.S. commitments to Afghans who aided the U.S. and NATO over the course of a 20 year war.

Southeast Asia

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte this week appeared before a Senate inquiry into his bloody “war on drugs,” during which he said he took “full legal responsibility” for the violent and controversial campaign. In his testimony before the country’s Senate, the 79-year-old said he offered “no apologies, no excuses” for the campaign, during which between 12,000 and 30,000 people were killed. However, he denied ordering police to carry out extrajudicial killings and said they should “repel the aggression only in self-defense.” The Senate inquiry is proceeding in parallel with another probe by a subcommittee of the House of Representatives, which was opened by allies of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., in response to the escalating feud with the Dutertes. The “drug war” killings are also the subject of an investigation at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

Central Asia

Last weekend two critical events took place in Uzbekistan. On October 26, Komil Allamjonov, until late September the head of the Information Policy Department in Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration, was reportedly the target of an assassination attempt. The next day, Uzbek citizens went to the polls to elect a new parliament under new rules that ultimately resulted in a strengthening of the ruling party. Observers say the election lacked genuine choice. There’s nothing necessarily linking the two events – aside from the fact that the real politics in Uzbekistan continues to take place behind the scenes and outside of the voting booth.

Source: Foreign Policy, Robert Barnett

Map showing the principal areas of Bhutan currently claimed by China. China is building villages in the western sector of Bhutan (in Bji Gewog in Haa dzongkhag) and in the northeastern sector (in Beyul and Menchuma in Lhuentse dzongkhag).

Diplomacy

Tagalog for “enhancer of skills,” it’s a slang term for methamphetamine in the Philippines – pointing to the widespread practice of wage-workers in Southeast Asia resorting to drug use to increase their productivity.