Diplomacy

What Happened: When Joe Biden came to office, he did so promising to restore U.S. leadership after the tumultuous presidency of Donald Trump, whose transactional and proudly self-interested approach to foreign policy rubbed many U.S. allies the wrong way. Now Trump is heading back to the White House once again. Despite general bipartisan agreement in the United States on the need to check China’s challenge to U.S. leadership, the differences between Biden and Trump have Indo-Pacific partners on edge – and “the countries most concerned are the same ones that have aligned with and depend on the United States in facing major perceived threats from rising China,” writes Robert Sutter, a Professor of Practice of International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.

Our Focus: When it comes to China policy – a vast area these days, covering security as well as economic issues like tariffs and export controls – “Harris was expected to continue Biden’s incremental policies, which were often introduced after close consultations with impacted regional governments,” Sutter notes. “This approach was preferred in most Asian countries to a Trump administration’s predicted abrupt, unilateral, and disruptive policies.” U.S. allies in particular are concerned that Trump’s focus on trade deficits and “insurance” payments for U.S. military support will weaken newly strengthened partnerships with Washington.

What Comes Next: Trump pinned his election campaign on promises to undo most of his predecessor’s policies, which attracted a majority of U.S. voters. But in the Indo-Pacific, that’s cause for concern. “Neglecting or disrupting the positive features of the Biden legacy and ignoring or worsening the gap between Asian governments and Trump will have serious costs that work to the benefit of rising China,” Sutter warns.

INTERVIEW

S.I. Keethaponcalan, professor of conflict resolution at Salisbury University in Maryland, and author of “Electoral Politics in Sri Lanka: Presidential Elections, Manipulation and Democracy,” on Sri Lanka’s major shift to the left: “Voters were disappointed and frustrated with the political parties and leaders who held power so far… The flip side is that Sri Lankan voters do not take any responsibility for what happened in 2022, even though they constantly voted for known corrupt officials and abusers of power.”

Northeast Asia

South Korea’s opposition leader, Lee Jae-myung, has been convicted in the first of several pending cases against him. A court found Lee violated election law by lying during the 2022 campaign, a ruling that, if upheld, would not only see him ousted from parliament but prevent him from running for president in 2027. Lee has promised to appeal, calling the cases against him political persecution. Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk-yeol is under increasing pressure from a Lee-led campaign to force him from office. Public discontent is running high due to Yoon’s refusal to investigate a number of high-profile scandals – including, but not limited to, corruption allegations against First Lady Kim Keon-hee.

South Asia

With Sri Lanka’s NPP gaining an unprecedented majority in parliament last week, India’s concerns about pro-China parties winning in South Asian elections continue. From Sri Lanka to Nepal, from Bangladesh to the Maldives, recent changes in government in South Asian countries have ousted pro-Indian leaders. In part that’s due to India’s neighbors actively pursuing hedging to avoid overreliance on the regional powerhouse. But India is to blame as well for failing to pursue deeper engagement with all major political parties – something it has done with great success in Mauritius.

Southeast Asia

China’s government is increasing its support for Myanmar’s beleaguered military junta, with reports this week suggesting that Chinese authorities have detained Peng Daxun, the head of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), in Yunnan. The MNDAA has spearheaded an offensive over the last year that has inflicted major defeats on the Myanmar armed forces. The decision to place Peng under house arrest, after inviting the commander to Yunnan for talks, is the latest attempt by Beijing to force the MNDAA to halt its offensives and withdraw from Lashio, a major city in northern Shan State that it seized in early August. Beijing’s apparent aim is to prevent the collapse of the junta, which it believes would be detrimental to Chinese interests in Myanmar. The news came shortly after reports that China and Myanmar’s junta are in the process of setting up a joint security company to safeguard Chinese assets and personnel in the country.

Central Asia

At 22, Erbayan Mukhtar was conscripted into Kazakhstan’s military, ultimately landing in the National Guard. Within a year, he was in a coma after “falling” in a bathroom at 2 a.m. There were, according to video from the hallway, eight other soldiers in the bathroom at the time. Even as more stories emerge regarding alleged hazing leading to serious injury or death, Kazakhstan’s defense and internal affairs ministry representatives maintain that hazing is not a systemic issue in the military.

Taiwan’s contested international status is reflected in the terms U.S. media outlets use in their articles.

Politics

Kengash, a local council in Uzbekistan, and the “real voice of the people” (настоящий голос народа) according to a recent presidential decree.