Security

What Happened: Violence is on the uptick in Pakistan. While terrorist attacks by the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch militant groups attract most of the attention, there’s another form of violence at play: sectarian conflict between Pakistan’s Shia and Sunni communities. And nowhere is that risk higher than in Kurram, the only district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in which the Shia community is in the majority. At least 130 people were killed in the latest outbreak of sectarian violence in late November, and many analysts are doubtful that a fragile ceasefire announced in December will last.

Our Focus: Kurram district, especially its central town, Parachinar, has a long history of recurring sectarian violence, dating back to before Pakistan’s independence. From 2007 to 2011 alone, some 2,000 people, mostly Shiites, were killed. In Kurram, sectarian tensions combine with inter-tribal grievances and land disputes, making for a toxic combination where both Shia and Sunni residents see the other side as an existential threat. “Every other week, we have a dispute over land that leads to fighting, which engulfs the entire district. During these times, we cannot do anything because everything shuts down, and at times, we are close to starving,” one local resident explained. Further inflaming the situation, proxy militias – the Iran-backed Zainebiyoun Brigade on the Shia side, and the TTP, the Afghan Taliban’s brother group, on the Sunni side – are quick to escalate.

What Comes Next: While the violence had been around for decades, like other conflicts within Pakistan, the situation in Kurram has dramatically worsened in the past three years. “The scale and intensity of conflict over land disputes in Kurram has escalated, driven by an influx of advanced American weapons left behind by retreating Afghan forces,” Zai Ur Rehman, a journalist and researcher covering sectarian violence in Pakistan, told The Diplomat. It’s unlikely Pakistan’s government can find the will to address the situation, given pressing security concerns around the country. In the meantime, locals in Kurram are left to mourn their dead and fear for their futures. “This senseless killing has taken countless lives, and there is no end in sight to it,” lamented one local shopkeeper, who lost his brother in the recent violence.

INTERVIEW

Kim Byung-joo, a retired four-star Army general and a senior lawmaker from the Democratic Party, on the DP’s push to impeach South Korea’s president: “President Yoon Suk-yeol is a criminal offender [guilty] of insurrection and, without question, should have been impeached. Impeachment alone is insufficient. He must be arrested and thoroughly investigated.”

Northeast Asia

It’s been a week of turmoil and tension in South Korea, starting from President Yoon Suk-yeol’s stunning declaration of martial law late on the night of December 3. Martial law lasted only six hours, thanks to a hastily arranged National Assembly vote to overturn it, but it was a near miss: lawmakers confirmed that Yoon had set in motion a plan to arrest leading opposition political figures. The Democratic Party and its allies moved rapidly to impeach Yoon, but the first attempt on December 7 failed after Yoon’s People Power Party ordered its lawmakers to boycott the voting, thus preventing a quorum. The DP will try for a second impeachment vote on December 14, having dismissed the PPP’s convoluted plan to sideline Yoon while keeping him in office indefinitely.

South Asia

In a stunning development, Syria’s long-time dictator, Bashar al-Assad, has been ousted from power by rebel groups in Syria. Countries around the world are scrambling to adjust to the rapid gains by Islamist militias in Syria, and India has much at stake. Unlike other Islamic nations that have backed Pakistan on the Kashmir question, Syria under Assad had been steadfast in its support of India. A new regime in Damascus is unlikely to continue that trend.

Southeast Asia

A major ethnic rebel group in western Myanmar said this week that it is in full control of the country’s border with Bangladesh, after capturing the final Myanmar military base in the town of Maungdaw. The group, which is fighting to create an autonomous state for the Rakhine ethnic group, seized the military base near Maungdaw on December 8, after six months of fighting. If verified, the group’s capture of the township would complete its control of the northern part of Rakhine State, and mark another important step forward in its bid to establish a self-governing state in western Myanmar. With the AA also fighting for control of three townships in southern Rakhine State, it may be simply a matter of time before the Myanmar military’s position in Rakhine State collapses altogether.

Central Asia

Each of Kyrgyzstan's three revolutions – in 2005, 2010, and 2020 – was sparked and carried through by massive public protests. So it’s perhaps no surprise that the current government, headed by Sadyr Japarov, has continued to prolong a ban on rallies in much of the capital that’s been in place since March 2022. Japarov’s claim recently that there “hasn’t been a single rally in the country for three years” isn't true, but it reflects a strident desire to project a sense of stability.

Source: Compiled by RCDA based on press releases from the Ministry of National Defense, ROC (Taiwan)

While the number of PLA aircraft and naval vessels on patrols near Taiwan has remained relatively constant over the past year, more of them are crossing the median line.

Politics

Urdu for “Final Call Protest,” the slogan used by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf to urge its followers to march on Pakistan’s capital from November 24-27.