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This week our top story examines what Chinese citizens think of the Belt and Road Initiative. We also have an interview with Ahmad Shuja Jamal, a senior Afghan civil servant in the Office of the National Security Council of the Ashraf Ghani government, on the future of diplomacy with the Taliban.
The Diplomat Brief
January 15, 2025thediplomat.com
Welcome to the latest issue of Diplomat Brief. This week our top story examines what Chinese citizens think of the Belt and Road Initiative. We also have an interview with Ahmad Shuja Jamal, a senior Afghan civil servant in the Office of the National Security Council of the Ashraf Ghani government, on the future of diplomacy with the Taliban.
Story of the week
What Does the Chinese Public Think of the Belt and Road?

Society

What Does the Chinese Public Think of the Belt and Road?

What Happened: In 2013, China’s President Xi Jinping launched what became known as the Belt and Road Initiative, an ambitious global infrastructure and connectivity project. The Chinese government has incorporated the BRI into nearly all its diplomatic initiatives, and discussions of the project are generally focused on geopolitics and national interests. But what does the Chinese public think about the BRI and its benefits – and costs – for their country?

Our Focus: Through a series of interviews, researcher Syed Inam Ali Naqvi explored Chinese public perceptions of the BRI. The project is largely viewed positively, as a success story for China’s diplomacy and its global leadership. As one interviewee explained, “The BRI is not just about roads or ports; it is about integrating China into the global economy and securing our place in it.” Many pointed to the need for the BRI in a context where China faces increasing headwinds, especially economically, in its relations with the West. Many Chinese citizens also see soft power gains from the BRI, expressing confidence that the investments improve China’s image abroad. But there are also concerns, especially resistance to the idea of funding overseas infrastructure when China itself struggles with poverty. “Why invest so much abroad when parts of China still need development?” was one common refrain.

What Comes Next: For many of the interviewees, their views on the BRI reflect a belief in the government’s strategic foresight and its ability to balance domestic and international investment. The BRI is generally viewed positively, and while there are concerns they are mostly expressed alongside optimism that the Chinese government has a plan to address the issues. “There is no doubt that China’s global ambitions are important, but we also need to ensure that the benefits of the BRI reach our less-developed regions,” said one interviewee.

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Behind the News

INTERVIEW

Ahmad Shuja Jamal

Ahmad Shuja Jamal, a senior Afghan civil servant in the Office of the National Security Council of the Ashraf Ghani government and co-author of “The Decline and Fall of Republican Afghanistan” on the prospects for India, the U.S., and other governments to forge productive relations with the Taliban: “The Taliban have also repeatedly demonstrated that they are only takers in a relationship — they will not bite you only as long as your hand feeds them. With a group like that, the mutual interest approach borne out of realpolitik can only take you so far. You also need some form of ideological alignment.”

Read the interview
This Week in Asia

Northeast Asia

New Details on North Koreans Fighting for Russia

This week, Ukraine announced it had captured its first North Korea soldiers, months after troops from North Korea joined Russian soldiers on the battlefield in Kursk. One North Korean soldier claimed they had not been told they were being sent to an active battlefield, but were being deployed for “training.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has held open the possibility of repatriating the captured soldiers – or providing them with asylum in a third country, possibly South Korea, if requested. So far, South Korea’s government estimates that some 300 North Koreans have died fighting for Russia, with another 2,700 wounded.

Find out more

South Asia

PTI-Government Talks in Pakistan

After over two years of political discord, starting from Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ouster in a no-confidence vote, Khan’s PTI and the Pakistani government are beginning talks to potentially calm the long-simmering dispute. The PTI has held multiple rounds of protests, especially following Khan’s arrest, while the government has repeatedly cracked down on such demonstrations. The talks could provide a way out from the instability, but it’s far from clear that the two sides will reach a compromise that satisfies both. Khan himself still faces legal charges, and the PTI may prefer to pin its hopes on the new Trump administration to secure their leader’s release.

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Southeast Asia

Thai Police Investigate Shooting of Cambodian Ex-MP

Thai police continue to investigate the brazen daylight assassination of a former Cambodian opposition lawmaker in Bangkok on January 7. This week, Cambodian authorities extradited Ekkalak Pheanoi, the primary suspect in the case, who was arrested in Battambang province the day after the shooting. Thai police say that the 42-year-old former marine has since confessed to shooting Lim Kimya, 73, shortly after he stepped off a bus in the Thai capital. But Ekkalak has refused to divulge the identity of the person who hired him to carry out the murder, out of fear for the safety of his family. The suspect’s reticence adds to widespread suspicions that Kimya’s murder was ordered by powerful people within the Cambodian security state. Thai police are also on the hunt for a second suspect who acted as a spotter in the killing, a Cambodian national who is reportedly the brother of a minor government official.

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Central Asia

Kyrgyzstan’s Social Democrats Under Pressure

A decade ago, the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) was riding high: It had a plurality presence in parliament and its founder was president. But parties in Kyrgyzstan have always been weak. SDPK was succeeded by the Social Democrats in 2019 following former President Atambayev’s downfall. And now the party, with as little power as it has, finds itself the target of the Japarov administration, with its leader facing vote-buying allegations and party members being put to questioning.

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Visualizing APAC

Source: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement FY2024 Annual Report

The number of Central Asians deported from the U.S. has surged dramatically since 2022, reflecting an influx of migrants following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its complicating effects for Central Asia.

See the full picture
Word of the Week

Environment

سانس لینے دو

Saans Lene Do, Urdu for “let me breathe,” became the slogan for a protest against staggering air pollution in Lahore, Pakistan.

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2025: What to Expect

The Diplomat Magazine | January 2025

2025: What to Expect

Welcome to the January 2025 issue of The Diplomat. As always, our first cover story of the new year offers a sampling of trends and events to watch in the Asia-Pacific. We also revisit the COVID-19 pandemic and its continuing impact in China, as well as taking stock of Malaysia’s priorities for its turn as ASEAN chair. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.

Read the Magazine