Security

What Happened: In December 2024, Syria’s long-time dictator, Bashar al-Assad, was driven out of the country by a militant coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). While the Islamic group’s victory was hailed by many similar outfits – including the Taliban, who compared HTS’ victory with their own seizure of Afghanistan in 2021 – the Islamic State was intent on undermining Syria’s new rulers. HTS split from the Islamic State during the days of the Caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Today, the Islamic State’s largest footprint is in Central Asia and the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, where the branch known as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is attempting to capitalize on anti-HTS narratives to bolter support.

Our Focus: Writing for The Diplomat, researchers Abdul Sayed and Riccardo Valle analyze the output of various ISKP and ISKP-aligned media accounts to get a sense of the group’s narrative. While the group celebrated Assad’s fall, it sees HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, as a traitor. To justify its position, ISKP claims that Julani was maneuvered into power not through military victories but through an unlikely coalition of global powers: “Russia, the U.S., and Israel and their regional proxies.” In this context, HTS’s pledges to respect the rights of minority groups, including Shia Muslims and Christians, are framed as a betrayal of “true” Islam. ISKP is hoping that stoking sectarian and communal tensions will bolster its recruitment efforts in Central and South Asia.

What Comes Next: Alarmingly, one of the main points of criticism ISKP is aiming at the interim government in Syria is that HTS will not permit Central Asian militants – many of whom joined the Islamic State on the battlefield in Syria – to attack their homelands. As Sayed and Valle note, the Taliban in Afghanistan were “able to temporarily avoid this issue due to the ongoing war in Syria that diverted the attention of Central Asian militants.” With that outlet closed, “there is the possibility that Central Asian jihadists might become impatient to point their weapons toward Central Asia. And ISKP is set to offer the opportunity.”

INTERVIEW

Washington Post technology reporter Eva Dou, author of the new book House of Huawei: The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful Company, on Huawei’s ties to the Chinese government: “Huawei has resisted becoming too intertwined with Beijing over the years, with Ren Zhengfei [Huawei’s founder] fearful the company would lose its competitive edge if it was subsumed into state bureaucracy. But the reality is that tech companies must cooperate with the national-security requirements of their governments – that is the case under the law in China, the United States, and countries around the world.”

Northeast Asia

When U.S. President Donald Trump was sworn into office on Monday, there were two unusual guests in Washington: Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Taiwan’s President of the Legislative Yuan (essentially, parliamentary speaker) Han Kuo-yu. Han Zheng met with his new counterpart, J.D. Vance, while Han Kuo-yu held a series of meetings with members of Congress. Both attendees represented a major upgrade from the traditional level of representation: China typically sends its ambassador to U.S. inauguration ceremonies, while Taiwan sent its de facto ambassador in 2021, after receiving the first such invite since the U.S. severed formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

South Asia

January 26 marks India’s Republic Day celebrations, and each year a foreign leader is invited to attend as “chief guest.” This year, the honor is being bestowed on Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, who will make a state visit to India for the occasion. It’s Prabowo’s first visit to India since taking office, and the invitation reflects India’s interest in shoring up ties with Indonesia (and Southeast Asia more generally) under its Act Easy policy. Adding to the diplomatic synergy, Indonesia recently joined India as a member of BRICS, becoming the first Southeast Asian country to join the grouping.

Southeast Asia

ASEAN’s foreign ministers this week warned Myanmar’s military junta that it should prioritize peace over an election planned for later this year, saying that any poll must be “inclusive” and “involve all stakeholders.” The message was delivered at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in Langkawi, the first major ASEAN meeting to be convened in 2025 under Malaysia’s chairmanship, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said after Sunday’s meeting. The military government says it plans to hold an election sometime this year, as part of a “transition” back to civilian rule. But given that most opposition parties have been disbanded, and large swathes of the country are now under the control of various resistance forces, there is little chance of this being any more than a mask for continued military domination.

Central Asia

As the Caspian Sea's international profile rises – given intense interest in trans-Caspian trade routes that cut Russia out of Eurasian trade and increasing gas extraction – so too do the risks to the sea. Receding shores, collapsing ecosystems, and communities struggling at the edge portend dark days for the region. Existing agreements between the five littoral states are often undermined by competing national interests. Can the sea be saved?

Source: Flora Yan/Foreign Policy Research Institute

290 China-related measures were introduced in U.S. state legislatures in 2024. Of those, over 68 percent failed; just 16 percent were enacted or adopted.

Economy

An acronym for “Make America Great Again,” it has become shorthand for the often isolationist and protectionist tendencies of new U.S. President Donald Trump.