Economy

What Happened: Ruili handles up to 40 percent of China’s trade with Myanmar. That powered the city’s economic boom during the 2010s as China pursued the various connectivity projects of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. But the heyday of growth – reaching “an astonishing 16.9 percent at its peak in 2014” – has long since passed, thanks to the devastating one-two punch of pandemic-era border closures, followed by the coup in Myanmar and resulting civil war. Researchers Mingyue Yang and Yaolong Xian detail the city’s transformation – and the implications for China’s broader Myanmar policy.

Our Focus: Ruili, seen as a hub for CMEC, was one of the major beneficiaries of the Chinese government’s push to turn Yunnan Province into a major cross-border transit point. The logic went beyond trade flows: Ruili welcomed immigrants from Myanmar with open arms, relying on their cheap labor to fuel its industrial parks. This workforce essentially disappeared during the pandemic, dropping from 100,000 to 1,000. Even after the pandemic, as Myanmar plunged into civil war, security concerns in China came to trump Ruili’s economic incentives. “The once semi-open border was transformed, reinforced with barbed wire and surveillance cameras, signaling a dramatic shift in policy,” Yang and Xian write. Adding to Ruili’s woes, many of its industries were set up to cater to demand in Myanmar – but the border areas, and especially the major transport arteries leading deeper into Myanmar, have become a war zone. Even if shipping goods were possible, consumer spending in Myanmar collapsed as the country descended into open war.

What Comes Next: The example of Ruili shows how trouble in Myanmar has upended China’s plans to revitalize the province of Yunnan. Even Ruili’s domestic-focused industries have suffered, as the city’s reputation has been tainted by its mere proximity to Myanmar. Once a vibrant tourist spot, “Ruli is now widely perceived as a perilous destination, deterring potential visitors” and investors, write Yang and Xian. China’s government is taking an increasingly active role in Myanmar’s conflict, leaning on ethnic armed organizations to reach ceasefire deals with the military. But with some of Beijing’s own policies – especially tightened border controls – contributing to Ruili’s plight, the city may ultimately become a sacrifice in the name of national security.

INTERVIEW

Y. Nithiyanandam, a professor and head of the Geospatial Research Program at Takshashila Institution, on the difficulty of estimating how a dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River will impact India: “The contribution of the Yarlung Tsangpo to the Brahmaputra [as the river is known in India] remains contentious due to inconsistent and often outdated data… China’s reluctance to share consistent hydrological data has compounded these challenges, particularly amid recent geopolitical tensions.”

Northeast Asia

The release of a new AI model has catapulted DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, to the upper echelon of AI developers. It’s not only that the model is comparable, and arguably superior, to competitors from U.S. firms like OpenAI, but it was built with far fewer resources – in terms of both money and computing power. DeepSeek’s success suggests that the U.S. strategy to curtail China’s progress in AI is even less successful than assumed (and the efficacy was questionable, at best, even before this).

Of less geopolitical import, but far more significance for over 1 billion people in East Asia, today is the Lunar New Year holiday. Happy Year of the Snake!

South Asia

Sri Lanka’s new government has paused wind power projects worth $440 million that had been awarded to India’s Adani Group, a major conglomerate with close ties to the Modi government. The projects have been controversial in Sri Lanka since the deal was signed under the previous president in 2023, with critics saying Adani Group overcharged for electricity and raising concerns that India’s government tipped the scales in the company’s favor. Adani’s presence in Sri Lanka came under additional scrutiny after U.S. prosecutors indicted company executives on bribery charges late last year.

Southeast Asia

This week, China’s government announced the arrest of a “major criminal suspect” in a number of recent human trafficking cases on the Myanmar-Thailand border, including the kidnapping of a well-known Chinese actor. The Ministry of Public Security said that the suspect, who was surnamed Yan, was detained and extradited with the help of Thai law enforcement agencies. The arrest is the latest action promised since Chinese actor Wang Xing, 22, went missing on January 3 near Thailand’s border with Myanmar. The actor was rescued four days later from a scam center in Shwe Kokko, a notorious scamming hub in eastern Myanmar. The high-profile case has prompted a flurry of diplomatic activity between China and the Mekong nations, which pledged last week to bolster their efforts to eradicate the region’s scamming scourge.

Central Asia

With the unprecedented wave of executive orders signed in the first week of his second administration, U.S. President Donald Trump dealt a devastating blow to an already embattled group of American allies: Afghans. Orders freezing foreign aid and immigration have led to the effective suspension of the Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program, stranding thousands, activists say. The administration hasn’t moved to exempt Afghans from restrictions or NGOs that assist in their integration into the United States.

Locals bearing arms in Pakistan’s Kurram District, which has been paralyzed by sectarian violence since November 2024.

Society

Chūn Wǎn, referring to the CCTV New Year’s Gala – the most-watched TV program in the world, and a key platform for CCP messaging each year.