Diplomacy

What Happened: The border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which runs along the edge of the famed Fergana Valley, has been a point of tension for more than 30 years. The border was the site of violent clashes in 2021 and 2022. Then in December 2024, the two governments announced that they had finally come to an agreement at last. Although the final deal has yet to be made public, on January 28, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said bilateral work was underway, to be followed by signatures by intergovernmental commissions and foreign ministers, then ratification in each country’s parliament. Presidential signatures would finally bring the treaty into law.

Our Focus: Reporting for The Diplomat, Joe Luc Barnes and Alibek Mukambayev talked to locals and experts on both sides of the border in order to try and gauge expectations ahead of the prospective agreement’s revelation. After decades of tension and occasional violence, trust runs low, but many are ready for a settlement at long last. Doolotbek Bektimirov, who lives in Kyrgyzstan’s Ak-Tatyr village, a few hundred meters from the disputed corridor, told our journalists that a fully demarcated border is the only way he’ll feel safe. “I can’t fully trust Tajiks. I think they are ready to begin to conflict at any moment.” Nevertheless, both sides have been historically loathe to yield territory, particularly when it comes to the tricky corridor that connects Vorukh, a Tajik enclave surrounded by Kyrgyz territory, to the rest of Tajikistan. Until the final border details are know, the risk remains that public backlash could undo the deal.

What Comes Next: “There is precedent for [a deal on Vorukh]. In 2021, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement to allow for the free movement of goods and people through Kyrgyz territory to the Uzbek enclave of Sokh,” Barnes and Mukambayev write. “Such a solution might see one of the sides losing face, but compromise here could unlock far greater economic benefits.” In order to take full advantage of booming regional cooperation, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, it’s in the interests of both Bishkek and Dushanbe to find a pathway toward a normalized border and easier crossings for locals.

INTERVIEW

Neil Loughlin, a senior lecturer at the University of London and author of the new book “The Politics of Coercion,” on the key to the CPP’s political dominance in Cambodia: “Coercion also became foundational to Cambodia’s crony-capitalist political economy, as the CPP leveraged state resources to form alliances with emerging business tycoons, with the state providing legal and, when necessary, violent cover to protect their interests. These tycoons, in turn, provided funding and resources to sustain the regime.”

Northeast Asia

Last week, China welcomed a slew of foreign leaders – including Thailand’s prime minister and Pakistan’s president – to attend the opening ceremony for the 2025 Asian Winter Games. This week, another round of foreign dignitaries will arrive in China for the closing ceremony – including Mongolia’s Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai. During his visit, Oyun-Erdene and his Chinese counterparts are expected to unveil a final agreement on a cross-border railway, which is expected to boost Mongolia’s coal exports to China. But the deal faces critics in Mongolia, who say it will cement Mongolia’s unhealthy level of dependence on Beijing, and on exports of the very fossil fuels that are contributing to Ulaanbaatar’s air pollution crisis.

South Asia

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Washington, D.C. on February 12-13 to meet with newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump. Their talks will set the stage for India-U.S. relations across a variety of hot-button issues, from trade (and tariffs) to migration to security cooperation. Indian officials are largely optimistic about the relationship in Trump’s second term, but this first summit will provide a key test for the ability to avoid faultlines.

Southeast Asia

This week, the Philippines began its 90-day campaign period for the mid-term elections scheduled for May 12, against the backdrop of bitter political infighting between the Marcos and Duterte clans. A total of 18,280 seats are up for grabs, including all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half of the 24 seats in the Senate, and thousands more executive and legislative positions at lower levels of government. But the polls are set to be overshadowed by last week’s sensational impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, the culmination of her bitter public feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The elections were already shaping up as a proxy fight between Marcos and Duterte, but the impeachment has  added further weight to the polls, given that the 12 newly-elected senators will make up half of the jury that will rule on whether to impeach Duterte.

Central Asia

Faced with climate disasters at home, Kazakhstan is accepting clean energy as a necessity, not just an ambition. But for a country whose economy remains very much tied to the fossil fuel industry, the challenges loom large. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan is pursuing a range of projects, from wind and solar to nuclear, in pursuit of its goal to have 50 percent of its energy mix shifted to renewables by 2050. When it comes to developing nuclear energy, which Astana is pursuing following a referendum last year, Kazakhstan is looking intensely toward international cooperation.

Source: Original survey by author

Bangladesh hasn’t held an election considered “free and fair” since 2008. Young people who became old enough to vote after that have largely refrained from participating in elections – but not due to a lack of trying.

Economy

Khawarij literally refers to a group that has broken with Islam. In Pakistan, it’s the newly en vogue name for the Pakistani Taliban, now used by the government and media alike.