Security

What Happened: While there are obvious differences between Taiwan and Ukraine, the similarities between the two – both “democracies with strong national identities threatened by authoritarian neighbors that claim historical sovereignty over their territories” – also merit analysis. Last year, The Diplomat ran a recurring series on the lessons China’s war planners were taking from the Russia-Ukraine war; this week, a group of authors explores the question of what Taiwan should be learning from Ukraine about how to best defend itself. After a year-long study of the campaign in Ukraine vs Taiwan’s military strategies and defense acquisitions, three researchers at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) offer their conclusions.

Our Focus: For Ukraine, asymmetric denial has been crucial in the war. Taiwan, however, has traditionally embraced a deterrence-heavy strategy centered on big-ticket items. The authors urge Taipei to follow its own military planners’ recommendations and truly embrace an asymmetric defense focused on integrated air and missile defense (IAMD), “cyber, drone technology, and resilient battlefield communication.” Bolstering domestic defense production will also be crucial to keep Taiwan’s military supplied. “Yet, the most vital lesson from Ukraine is not military but geopolitical: international support and alignments are indispensable,” the researchers argue. “Ukraine would have not resisted as long as it did without the global endorsement it received.”

What Comes Next: At a time when the U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s defense looks shakier than ever, the authors urge Taiwan to diversify its partnerships, particularly with regional countries. “By adapting a denial defense posture, strengthening its regional partnerships, and proactively shaping global narratives, Taiwan can enhance its deterrence while reinforcing broader Indo-Pacific security,” the authors conclude.

INTERVIEW

Shawn VanDiver, president of #AfghanEvac, a coalition of over 250 non-governmental organizations working to advocate for Afghan allies, on the broader impact of the U.S. abandonment of Afghans: “America’s credibility is on the line. This is not just about one group of people … Whether in Ukraine, Africa, or the Indo-Pacific, people who work alongside American forces are watching this closely.”

Northeast Asia

While it’s not a certainty, most reporting out of South Korea expects the Constitutional Court to issue its ruling on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol this week – possibly on Friday. The stakes are high; intense political polarization has taken hold in South Korea, with Yoon’s resort to conspiracy theories and fringe YouTube talking points to defend his declaration of martial law exacerbating the issue. With dueling protests between anti-Yoon and pro-Yoon groups in the lead up to the ruling, the potential for political violence is riding high.

South Asia

Last week, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) derailed and then hijacked a train traveling through the mountains of Balochistan, taking hundreds of passengers hostage. A pitched battle erupted, with the military and the BLA issuing wildly different casualty counts and explanations. On Sunday, the BLA conducted another attack, this time targeting a military bus convoy with a suicide bombing followed by a gun battle. The back-to-back mass casualty events have caused some to question the extent of Pakistan’s control over Balochistan, which forms a crucial node in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Southeast Asia

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte this week appeared for the first time before judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC), after his sensational arrest and extradition to The Hague last week. During the hearing, the judges informed the 79-year-old former leader of the charges against him, which relate to his violent “war on drugs.” Duterte, who was arrested on March 11 by Philippine police acting on an ICC warrant accusing him of crimes against humanity, reportedly appeared frail as he beamed in via video link from his detention unit, confirming his name and date of birth for the judges. Meanwhile, back in the Philippines, supporters of the former leader have held rallies calling for his return, raising the possibility of political turbulence in the run-up to the midterm elections scheduled for May 12. The ICC judges have provisionally scheduled a “confirmation of charges” hearing to begin on September 23.

Central Asia

RFE/RL, a non-profit news organization funded by the U.S. Congress, has long been criticized and pressured by Central Asia’s leaders. In 2022, when the Kyrgyz government blocked RFE/RL’s websites in the country, the U.S. government and others pushed back. The case against the broadcaster was scrapped in 2023, but two years later, the U.S. government – under the direction of President Donald Trump – has moved of its own accord to dismantle RFE/RL, and its fellow U.S.-funded outlets that provide a free press in countries that lack one. As RFE/RL’s President and CEO Stephen Capus said, “The cancellation of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s grant agreement would be a massive gift to America’s enemies.”

Source: Original survey data

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol is broadly unpopular, but support for the impeached leader varies widely by political affiliation, whether the opposition DP or Yoon’s PPP.

Society

Saikaihatsu, Japanese for “redevelopment,” has become a mantra of sorts for Tokyo – but at a social and environmental cost.