Diplomacy

What Happened: In 2022, when China inked a controversial – and secretive – security pact with the Solomon Islands, it set off warning bells in the United States. Washington had grown complacent about its status in the Pacific Islands, but the Solomon Islands deal hammered home just how quickly China’s influence was growing. The Biden administration rolled out a new U.S. Pacific strategy that involved increased aid, an expanded diplomatic presence, and greater commitments on climate change – the single most important issue to the Pacific Island states. But “whatever progress the United States made in the Pacific during the last couple of years, the White House is throwing it away,” writes Camilla Pohle, an expert on the Pacific Islands region, for The Diplomat.

Our Focus: There’s no reason to think that the Trump administration is purposefully trying to sabotage the U.S. position in the Pacific. But the sum total of its moves since assuming office – ripping up U.S. climate commitments, ending nearly all U.S. foreign aid, and planning to shut down U.S. embassies around the world – sent shockwaves through the Pacific Islands. “Pacific Island countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change in the world, have the least developed health infrastructure in the world, and are especially aid-dependent,” Pohle notes. “It’s simply not possible to strengthen Washington’s ties with Pacific Island countries when U.S. foreign policy is harming them to such an extreme degree.” If the Trump administration pushes Congress to cut hard-won funding to the Pacific COFA partners, it will effectively be “game over” for U.S. credibility in the region.

What Comes Next: With Washington essentially removing itself from the game, Beijing will face little opposition in consolidating its influence. When the China-U.S. competition in the Pacific Islands began to gain serious momentum in 2022, Pohle writes, “It made little sense, at the time, to declare who was ‘winning’ or ‘losing’ because the competition was still active, and there were so many metrics to consider.” But now, “it’s clear what losing looks like for the United States. It looks like this.”

INTERVIEW

Ogulgerek Palwanova a researcher at the Progres Foundation who authored a recent report on human development in Turkmenistan, on why the government’s neglect of the Turkmen people has transnational significance: “Turkmenistan may not dominate global headlines, but it’s a country that matters – both for regional stability and for broader global concerns like energy security, human rights, and climate change.”

Northeast Asia

The United States’ East Asian allies were among the first governments to send formal delegations to Washington with an eye toward securing a deal that would permanently exempt them from Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs.” Japan’s economic minister and finance minister made separate trips to Washington on April 17 and 22, respectively, while South Korea’s trade and finance ministers are making a joint trip later this week. Japan’s efforts so far haven’t resulted in concrete progress, while in South Korea the mere talks themselves have stoked controversy. The opposition thinks Han Duck-soo is overstepping his authority as acting president by negotiating on South Korea’s behalf.

South Asia

In the 1990s, Bhutan undertook the mass deportation of ethnic Nepalis, known as Lhotshampa. Nepal didn’t recognize them as citizens, either, and tens of thousands of the Lhotshampa languished in refugee camps until third countries – including the United States – offered them resettlement. But with the Trump administration undertaking its own mass deportations of immigrations, often with little cause, these Bhutanese refugees are once against being forced into statelessness. A dozen or so have been deported back to Bhutan – where officials accept the deportees from U.S. law enforcement, then quietly dump them over the border in India, with strict instructions never to return.

Southeast Asia

The United States and the Philippines this week kicked off the 40th iteration of their annual Balikatan military exercises. The three-week-long military drills will involve more than 14,000 American and Filipino soldiers, as well as personnel from Canada, France, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. While the total number of troops is slightly down on last year, Balikatan 2025 will showcase greater kinetic power, involving live-fire missile tests, including of the U.S. Marines’ NMESIS “ship killer” missile system, and the sinking of a decommissioned World War II-era Philippine Navy vessel. The exercises take place against a backdrop of tension in the South China Sea, where the China Coast Guard has increased both the frequency and intensity of its incursions into Philippine-claimed waters, resulting in a string of clashes between the two sides.

Central Asia

In a little-noted bit of diplomatic maneuvering, during the Central Asia-EU Summit in early April, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan signed onto a joint text that supports two resolutions passed by the U.N. Security Council in the early 1980s deeming secessionist activities in Cyprus invalid. While this fits into the region’s generally strong stance against all kinds of separatism, it throws a possible wrench into relations with Turkiye, which supports the declared (but globally unrecognized) sovereignty of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). The October Organization of Turkic States (OTS) summit in Baku could be very interesting.

Source: World Values Survey, Institute of Sociology at Academia Sinica, Institute for National Defense and Security Research, American Portrait Survey Project

Survey results show a majority of Taiwanese – including youths specifically – have long expressed a willingness to defend Taiwan in case of attack.

Politics

Chin-Yoon, literally meaning “pro-Yoon” in Korean, refers to supporters of impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol, especially within the People Power Party.