Politics

What Happened: On April 22, gunmen attacked tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing 26. India quickly blamed Pakistan for the attack and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), among other moves. Pakistan pushed back, warning that the abrogation of the IWT would be considered an “act of war.” But the unified response to India belies pre-existing faultlines in Pakistan’s ruling coalition – both between the two main parties, the PML-N and the PPP, and between the civilian leaders and the heavy hand of the military.

Our Focus: Based on conversations with members of the government, The Diplomat’s Kunwar Khuldune reported, frictions run deep. The PML-N and the PPP have long been rivals and their alliance remains uneasy – especially as the contentious issue of a canal project in PML-N-ruled Punjab causes controversy and anger in Sindh, the PPP’s stronghold. But faced with India’s move to threaten Pakistan’s access to the Indus waters altogether, both parties have downplayed their internal issues. “When the matter is the security and integrity of Pakistan, everyone is united, and there can be no differences between us,” Senator Pervaiz Rashid of the PML-N told The Diplomat. “What is the PPP going to say now, that they do not stand with the government at a time when the country is at war with India?”

What Comes Next: While both parties are marking a show of unity, there is still a fundamental tension at play: the PPP continues to hope it can wrest control of the government away from the PML-N. “I don’t know about the future of the alliance,” said a PPP spokesperson. “That’s the thing with crises, they inevitably offer opportunities.” As is always the case in Pakistan, each of the rival political parties – including the PTI, which is stuck in the political wilderness for now – will be hoping to gain the backing of the all-important military to rule over its rivals. A crisis with India, and the promise of carte blanche for the security apparatus to take the reins, might be an opening for any of the main players to win over the Pakistan Army.

INTERVIEW

Dr. Michael A. Hunzeker, an associate professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, on the uncertainty in Taiwan-U.S. relations under Trump: “Taipei’s overarching objective remains unchanged. President Lai wants to deepen Taiwan’s ties with the United States across a range of domains… But because Washington’s priorities have suddenly become harder to discern, Lai’s ability to achieve those objectives just got a lot harder.”

Northeast Asia

The stage is almost set for South Korea’s snap presidential election on June 3. As expected, the Democratic Party nominated Lee Jae-myung, the DP candidate in 2022 who took up the mantle of party chief in the interim. The People Power Party (PPP) – the party of impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol – had a more crowded slate but is now down to the final 2: Kim Moon-soo, the former labor minister under Yoon, and Han Dong-hoon, who was the party leader until just after Yoon’s impeachment. That sets up a battle for the future of the PPP, where Kim represents the pro-Yoon camp while Han supported Yoon’s impeachment. There’s speculation, though, that in the end the PPP might back a third person: Acting President Han Duck-soo, who is rumored to be eyeing a presidential run as an independent candidate.

South Asia

Following the attack on tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, India’s government pointed the finger at Pakistan, claiming it offered support to the attackers. That has raised calls for New Delhi to respond kinetically, with cross-border strikes, just as it did following the 2019 Pulwama attack. Pakistan, meanwhile, is primed to respond, having already called India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty an act of war. The possibility for a cascading crisis is high, and the world is watching to see what choices will be made in the coming days.

Southeast Asia

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is on the road in Southeast Asia this week, making official visits to Vietnam and the Philippines, against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty. During his two-day visit to Hanoi, Ishiba and his Vietnamese counterpart, Pham Minh Chinh, pledged to deepen economic cooperation and to “cooperate to maintain a free and open international order based on the rule of law.” Ishiba’s trip follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs announcement on April 2, which saw both nations hit with punitive import duties. The visit is just the latest in a series of high-level meetings between Asian leaders aimed at deepening economic cooperation and pushing back against Washington’s protectionist “shock therapy.” Indeed, while in Hanoi Ishiba struck much the same note as Chinese President Xi Jinping during his own recent state visit to Vietnam, when Xi said that “there are no winners in a trade war” and called for Vietnam and China “to resolutely safeguard the multilateral trading system.”

Central Asia

It’s become a well-established pattern in Central Asia: governments warn their citizens not to join the Russian Army in its war on Ukraine, and arrest those who disobey – all while ignoring the Russia government’s attempts to recruit Central Asian nationals. A new case in Kyrgyzstan, however, hits a bit closer to the root of the problem: A Kyrgyz employee of a Russian government agency, an employee in the Osh mayor’s office, and two others were detained on April 19 on suspicion of recruiting Kyrgyz citizens to fight for the Russian army in Ukraine. Kyrgyz authorities have not shared details yets, but the case has explosive potential if there was any direct Russian government involvement in the scheme.

Sandy Cay, an uninhabited reef in the Spratly Islands, has become the latest flashpoint in the South China Sea, with both China and the Philippines conducting flag-raising operations there in the past week.

Environment

Kalapatthar, meaning “black rock” in Nepali – as opposed to the white of Himalayan glaciers, which are melting at an alarming rate.