SOCIETY

What Happened: In 2017, brutal clearance operations by the Myanmar military against the Rohingya people in Rakhine State sparked accusations of genocide – and drove 1 million Rohingya across the border into refugee camps in Bangladesh. Today, those same camps are seeing another influx of Rohingya refugees, this time displaced by a campaign of targeted violence undertaken by both the Myanmar military and its sworn enemy, the Arakan Army.

Our Focus: Rohingya photojournalist Rohim Ullah interviewed new arrivals at the refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, for their stories. Through a combination of photographs and survivor accounts, Ullah documents the violence that surged in the summer of 2024, as the Arakan Army made rapid advances through Myanmar. Rohingya people were caught in the crossfire of drone and air strikes, and at times deliberately targeted – even as they desperately sought to make it across the border. Many lost family members – spouses, parents, children – in the attacks; a number of those who survived still suffer from injuries received in drone strikes or mortar shellings.

What Comes Next: “This ongoing campaign of genocide is not isolated. It is part of a broader, long-standing pattern of persecution, statelessness, and exclusion faced by the Rohingya people that has persisted over decades,” Ullah stresses. What is new is that the refugees are arriving at camps that are already stressed to the breaking point by a lack of funding and basic necessities. “We deserve to live with dignity, just like any other human being,” one refugee told The Diplomat, urging the resumption of international funding for the camps.

INTERVIEW

Ajai Sahni, who is a founding member and executive director of the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management and South Asia Terrorism Portal, on the effectiveness of Operation Sindoor: “The surgical strikes at Balakot [in 2019] had zero impact on weakening the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan. Even Op Sindoor, which has inflicted far greater material damage, will have little impact on the ‘terrorist infrastructure,’ which principally comprises hundreds of small camps and launch pads.”

Northeast Asia

The 21-day campaign period for South Korea’s June 3 presidential election began on Monday. The slate of candidates is set, after some last-minute drama within the People Power Party (PPP) of former President Yoon Suk-yeol. Voting in the PPP primary process awarded the nomination to Kim Moon-soo, who served as labor minister under Yoon. But it was assumed, even as the primary played out, that the PPP actually wanted to field Han Duck-soo, who served as the acting president and prime minister until resigning to join the race in early May. Kim, however, resisted pressure to back down, resulting in an embarrassing confrontation between the party and its nominee. In the end, Kim was (re)confirmed as the PPP candidate; he’ll face off against the heavily favored Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party. That is, unless the PPP can succeed in a second effort to create a “unity” ticket with other conservative players.

South Asia

On May 10, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a social media post that India and Pakistan had agreed to a ceasefire. That served as a badly needed off-ramp for the nuclear-armed rivals, after four days of escalating military exchanges involving drones, loitering munitions, missiles, artillery, and fighter aircraft. But the stage is set for a future round of confrontations: India has declared that any future terror attack will be treated as an act of war, while Pakistan has new confidence in its ability to weather a strike from India and retaliate.

Southeast Asia

On Monday, the Philippines held much-anticipated midterm elections in which nearly 70 million eligible voters went to the polls to choose more than 18,000 political leaders. Most of the local and international attention was focused on the battle for the 12 open seats in the Senate, which shaped as a proxy battle in the ongoing feud between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. The early, unofficial results were inconclusive, with pro-Marcos candidates set to win at least six of the 12 seats, preserving the president’s control of the upper house. However, Duterte-aligned candidates performed better than expected, and were set to win as many as four seats. This could have a bearing on the upcoming Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, who was impeached by the House in February over a range of issues, including an alleged plot against the president’s life. If Duterte survives impeachment – it requires a two-thirds vote – she is likely to set her sights on capturing the presidency in 2028. This would ensure that Philippine politics will be dominated by the Marcos-Duterte drama, to the detriment of the public’s material concerns.

Central Asia

Astana’s balancing act – a careful navigation of deep political, social, and economic ties to Russia alongside Kazakhstan's own sovereignty and soul – is becoming ever more precarious, with civil society caught in the crossfire at a moment when its voice is needed most. Kazakhstan’s domestic media space has become crowded with anonymous Telegram channels amplifying seemingly pro-government narratives alongside pro-Russian ones. The cases of recently detained and jailed journalists and activists suggest an opportunistic seizing of the chaotic moment to silence critics and placate Russia, even as Astana pushes back in other areas on Moscow’s overt nationalism.

Photo by Rohim Ullah

A tarp covers dead bodies of Rohingya individuals that were recovered from the Naf River by local residents and Rohingya refugees. According to eyewitnesses on the ground, the victims appeared to have been killed in a drone attack, whether carried out by the Arakan Army or the Myanmar military junta.

SECURITY

Sindoor: Hindi for “vermillion,” which married Hindu women dot or smear on their forehead. “Operation Sindoor” was the code-name for India’s cross-border strikes on May 6-7, a reference to the fact that several women were left widowed by the Pahalgam terrorist attack.