DIPLOMACY

What Happened: In the China-U.S. geopolitical competition, much attention is paid to U.S. efforts to expand its influence in regions bordering China, like Southeast Asia or Central Asia. But the reverse is also true: China is attempting to bolster its presence and influence in the U.S. near abroad, including in the Caribbean region. With the Trump administration back in office, Caribbean states are reckoning with new instability in the relationship with their most powerful neighbor, even while Washington steps up the pressure to force regional states to curtail ties with China.

Our Focus: Nand C. Bardouille, the manager of The Diplomatic Academy of the Caribbean in the Institute of International Relations at The University of the West Indies, outlines the dynamics at play in the Caribbean. First, the region is a battleground for the “One China” policy; of Taiwan’s 12 remaining diplomatic allies in the world, five are Caribbean nations. But the vast majority of Caribbean countries have relations with Beijing, and they – like many developing nations – welcome the influx of investment and infrastructure that comes with China’s Belt and Road. They also greatly value their sovereignty – and will not appreciate efforts by either China or the U.S. to pressure a rethink of Caribbean foreign policy.

What Comes Next: “As the Trump administration’s China strategy-related machinations are afoot, CARICOM member states are wary of what may be in store,” writes Bardouille. Caribbean states “that for decades have aligned themselves with the One China policy are clear-eyed about their motivations in doing so.” Adding to the intrigue, the Trump administration’s pressure over Caribbean China policies is unfolding at a time when U.S. willingness to help regional states achieve their own goals is ever-more in doubt.

INTERVIEW

Researchers Bradley Jardine, Akbota Karibayeva, and Edward Lemon on the gap between Central Asian governments and publics when it comes to China: “There is a stark divergence between elite and public perceptions of China in Central Asia… Political and business elites largely view China as an essential development partner… In contrast, average citizens are more skeptical and often distrustful of China’s growing presence.”

Northeast Asia

For over two weeks, protesters – mostly youth – have gathered in Mongolia’s capital to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene over social media posts that flaunted his son’s wealth. Far from an isolated incident, the protests mark another phase of Mongolia’s recurring struggle against corruption and inequality. While the public discontent is genuine, Mongolia’s political and business elites are maneuvering to turn the situation to their own advantage, as contenders jockey for position to become the next prime minister.

South Asia

Late last week, rumors flew that Muhammad Yunus, who heads Bangladesh’s interim government, was going to resign. Yunus decided to stay on, but released a fiery statement on May 24 warning of potential interference by “defeated forces” or “a foreign conspiracy.” Yunus and the unelected interim government face increasing pressure from political parties – particularly the BNP and upstart NCP, which are jockeying for political power in the post-Hasina era. One of the major issues is Yunus’ reluctance to set a date for elections.

Southeast Asia

Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, was abuzz with dignitaries this week. Not only were the leaders of the 10 ASEAN states in town for the 46th ASEAN Summit, but leaders from the Gulf and China joined for the first ever trilateral summit involving ASEAN, the GCC, and Beijing. As always, Myanmar’s intractable conflict – and the role of a regional grouping laser-focused on consensus and noninterference – ranked high on the agenda, with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim claiming “significant” progress. The trade uncertainty brought by Trump was also a major point of discussion, especially at the ASEAN-China-GCC trilateral. Anwar is hoping to organize yet another summit between the United States and ASEAN leaders to focus on trade issues.

Central Asia

There are no comprehensive, official, public lists available, but in recent years Russia and Kazakhstan have traded individual travel bans. Russia tends to bar Kazakhs who have spoken out about the war in Ukraine; Kazakhstan blocks Russians who have questioned the country’s sovereignty. Earlier in May, Kazakh journalist Irina Mednikova was informed she had been declared “undesirable” by Russian authorities. Kazakhstan had just barred Russian historian Andrei Grozin from entering the country. Ironically, Grozin was scheduled to attend an event in Kazakhstan to “take stock of problems in Russian-Kazakh relations.”

Source: ACLED

More clashes have been recorded between India and Pakistan’s security forces in 2025 so far than in any single year since 2021 – a trend that began even before the Pahalgam attack.

Magazine

“Meoksanism,” a neologism derived from the Korean phrase for “eating and living,” is the central plank of Lee Jae-myung’s presidential campaign as he seeks to appeal across the aisle to Koreans concerned about pocketbook issues.