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This week our top story explores a secretive tobacco deal that made millions for a Lao tycoon, while jeopardizing public health. We also have an interview with historian Jeffrey Wasserstrom on the “Milk Tea Alliance” that brought together young activists from Hong Kong, Thailand, and Myanmar.
The Diplomat Brief
June 18, 2025thediplomat.com
Taiwan Fellowship
Welcome to the latest issue of Diplomat Brief. This week our top story explores a secretive tobacco deal that made millions for a Lao tycoon, while jeopardizing public health. We also have an interview with historian Jeffrey Wasserstrom on the “Milk Tea Alliance” that brought together young activists from Hong Kong, Thailand, and Myanmar.
Story of the week
How a Secret Tobacco Deal in Laos Enriched a Political Insider

Politics

How a Secret Tobacco Deal in Laos Enriched a Political Insider

What Happened: In 2001, Laos’s then-prime minister, Bounnhang Vorachit, signed off on a contract that would award millions of dollars in profits to a U.K.-based tobacco giant and business tycoon Sithat Xaysoulivong – a close ally, and eventual in-law, of Bounnhang. Exclusive reporting by The Examination, co-published with The Diplomat, reveals the details of the contract, which swore all parties to secrecy. The pact privatized Laos’ state tobacco monopoly by creating a joint venture between the government and British firm Imperial. A company held by Sithat also received a minority stake; The Examination’s analysis of financial records found that Sithat’s company received more than $28 million under the deal since 2023. Importantly, the contract also prevented Laos from raising taxes on cigarettes, meaning the country has some of the world’s cheapest cigarettes. Those low prices are part of the reason why Laos’ male cigarette smoking rate is among the highest in the world – with all the negative health outcomes that implies.

Our Focus: The 2001 deal “has all the hallmarks of a corrupt scheme,” said Kush Amin, a legal specialist at the anti-corruption group Transparency International, who reviewed the documents obtained by The Examination. Sithat, who made millions from the deal, is both politically well-connected and had no prior experience in the tobacco industry before being offered the chance to buy into the joint venture. (In a statement, Imperial said it is is “committed to operating with integrity and in adherence with all applicable compliance standards.”) But beyond enriching a politically-connected businessman, the deal has had immense consequences for public health. The secretary of Laos’ parliament even wrote a letter to the current prime minister arguing that the deal “resulted in significant losses to national revenue and negatively impacted the health of the Lao people.”

What Comes Next: The 2001 deal takes on special relevance now, because key provisions – including the tax freeze – are due to expire next year. The current prime minister, Sonexay Siphandone, indicated in November that his government would terminate the contract – but also left the door open for negotiations over a new agreement. Whether the deal is renewed, and under what terms, will be a key question for public health outcomes in Laos. “The Lao people have already suffered from this contract for 25 years,” said Bungon Ritthiphakdee, executive director of the Thailand-based Global Center for Good Governance in Tobacco Control. “The question is whether a new generation will have to continue suffering.”

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Newsletter

The Examination

The Examination is an independent nonprofit newsroom that investigates preventable health threats. For more original reporting, investigations, and interviews from The Examination, please subscribe to their newsletter.

Behind the News

INTERVIEW

Jeffrey Wasserstrom

Jeffrey Wasserstrom, a professor of history at the University of California, Irvine and the author of “The Milk Tea Alliance: Inside Asia’s Struggle Against Autocracy and Beijing,” on the legacy of the loose coalition: “Its brief flourishing was due to a unique convergence of factors, but I see it as having a broader relevance. Some of the networks established during it remain, and it maintains some presence in online spaces and real-life ones, too, in part via activities such as talks and film showings.”

Read the interview
This Week in Asia

Northeast Asia

Will the Latest China-US Trade Deal Stick?

Late last week, the Trump administration announced it had forged a trade deal with China to resolve questions of tariffs, rare earth exports, and more. In practice, though, the “deal” was really just a more fleshed out version of the agreement reached in May, under which both sides would remove most of their retaliatory tariffs – and China would resume rare earth exports to the U.S. According to the U.S., the May deal was never upheld, leading to new rounds of retaliation and another set of talks. Far from a lasting resolution, the question is whether the June 11 announcement holds for more than a few weeks – its predecessor certainly didn’t.

Find out more

South Asia

Iran-Israel Conflict Causes a Headache For India

As Iran and Israel continue to trade strikes, following Israel’s decision to bomb numerous military targets in Iran, the geopolitical ramifications are just beginning to emerge. For India, it’s all bad news. Iran is a crucial partner for New Delhi; its weakening will jeopardize importance cooperative projects like Chabahar Port and the International North-South Corridor, which allow India to connect to markets to its north and west while bypassing Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan stands to benefit – its border with Iran will take on even more geopolitical significance amid the conflict, while threats to oil shipments will remind China of why it’s invested so much in the trouble China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

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Southeast Asia

Cambodia Requests ICJ Intercession in Thai Border Dispute

Cambodia’s government this week wrote to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to request its help in resolving its border dispute with Thailand, amid a steady ratcheting up of tension between the two neighbors. Phnom Penh previously announced that it would ask the ICJ to rule on four disputed areas along the 800-kilometer shared border, including an area close to the border with Laos where an armed clash on May 28 left one Cambodian soldier dead. Since then both nations have reinforced their military presence along undemarcated stretches of the border, while imposing border restrictions and other measures in retaliation. Thailand has rejected the ICJ’s involvement, telling Cambodia that it wants to resolve the disputes bilaterally. But now that nationalist sentiment has been mobilized on both sides of the border, it is much harder for either government to make any sort of compromise without paying a significant political cost.

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Central Asia

Rosatom Set to Build Kazakhstan's First Nuclear Power Plant

Authorities in Kazakhstan recently announced that Russia’s Rosatom will head up what’s hoped to be an international consortium to construct Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. A referendum last year paved the way for the construction of nuclear power plants in the country, although the issue remains controversial. Not to snub China, just as Xi Jinping came to town for the second Central Asia-China Summit Kazakh authorities suggested they’d explore the possibility of a separate agreement for China to build the country’s second nuclear power plant.

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Visualizing APAC

While South Korea’s liberal governments are often seen as “pro-China” and skeptical of the U.S., trends in South Korean alignment belie that assumption.

See the full picture
Word of the Week

Security

海洋权益

Hǎiyáng quányì, Mandarin for “maritime rights and interests,” was newly elevated to one of China’s top national security concerns in a recent white paper.

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American Democracy Versus Chinese Governance: The Ultimate Contest

The Diplomat Magazine | June 2025

American Democracy Versus Chinese Governance: The Ultimate Contest

This month, our cover story asks whether U.S. democracy is still a selling point in its global competition with China. We also trace the rise and fall of India’s democracy and analyze the latest twists and turns in the Philippines’ political journey. And of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.

Read the Magazine
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