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This week our top story looks at the mysterious arrest of 10 Chinese nationals by Afghanistan’s intelligence agency. We also have an interview with Kadyr Toktogulov, Kyrgyzstan’s former ambassador to the United States and Canada, about Kyrgyzstan’s political drama and the regional context.
The Diplomat Brief
February 17, 2021thediplomat.com
Welcome to the latest issue of Diplomat Brief. This week our top story looks at the mysterious arrest of 10 Chinese nationals by Afghanistan’s intelligence agency. We also have an interview with Kadyr Toktogulov, Kyrgyzstan’s former ambassador to the United States and Canada, about Kyrgyzstan’s political drama and the regional context.
Story of the week
Did China Build a Spy Network in Kabul?

SECURITY

Did China Build a Spy Network in Kabul?

What Happened: In December 2020, 10 Chinese nationals were arrested, with little fanfare, on murky charges of contact with the Haqqani Network. They were just as quietly released without charge and deported to China – but the damage to Afghanistan-China relations was done.

Our Focus: “With few exceptions, Afghanistan has historically been a geopolitical hot-spot for rivalry and tension between global and regional powers,” Omar Samad, former Afghan ambassador to France and Canada, told The Diplomat. “These rivalries have taken on new forms in recent times, intensifying the Afghan conflict and further complicating a search for a peaceful outcome.”

What Comes Next: Even as the peace process continues, the fate of the Haqqani Network in particular is unclear – and, as this case suggests, the Taliban’s “sword arm” continues to pose an attractive option for foreign powers looking to advance their interests in Afghanistan through non-state actors.

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Behind the News

INTERVIEW

Kadyr Toktogulov

Kadyr Toktogulov, Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador to the United States and Canada from 2015 to 2019, on the country’s continuing political challenges: “What is more or less certain is that Kyrgyzstan will likely be going through a couple of national votes, parliamentary elections and a constitutional referendum. And pretty much every national vote is a test of political and economic stability for Kyrgyzstan.”

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This Week in Asia

Northeast Asia

Who Will Be the New Tokyo Olympics Chief?

Last week, Mori Yoshiro resigned at the head of the Tokyo Olympics Organizing Committee after widespread backlash over his sexist comments. That didn’t end the scandal, however, with his handpicked replacement quickly reversing course to refuse the job after revelations Mori would have been asked to stay on as a consultant. Now all eyes are on the Organizing Committee as it chooses another leader – a critical decision for a beleaguered Games in its final stretch.

Find out more

South Asia

The China-India Disengagement Continues

China and India have both confirmed that they are mutually disengaging troops at key friction points in the months-long military standoff in eastern Ladakh. If the drawdown continues as planned – and that’s no guarantee, as previous efforts have fallen apart – it would mark the beginning of the end to a tense standoff that began in May 2020 and has claimed at least 20 lives.

Find out more

Southeast Asia

Aung San Suu Kyi Faces Junta Charges

Myanmar’s deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi is due in court this week in the capital Naypyidaw, where she faces charges that include breaches of COVID-19 rules and the arcane crime of illegally importing walkie-talkies. “The Lady’s” scheduled appearance comes as protests continue to spread across the country, and the new junta government girds itself for what depressingly looks like another crackdown.

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Central Asia

Uzbekistan Turns to Pakistan

Although double landlocked Uzbekistan already uses a route through Iran for exports, Tashkent has set its eyes – and shaken hands with Afghan and Pakistani officials – on pursuing a railroad route through Afghanistan to the Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi. Keep an eye on Uzbekistan as it looks to South Asia for sea access and new markets.

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Visualizing APAC
Are the Uyghurs Safe in Turkey?

SOCIETY

Are the Uyghurs Safe in Turkey?

Uyghur women stand outside the Chinese consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, next to binders with files on people missing in Xinjiang, demanding answers about their families. Photo by Nicholas Muller.

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Word of the Week

ECONOMY

土味

Tuwei: Mandarin, literally means something that has the flavor of soil. Figuratively it refers to something that is either tacky-cool, outdated, or cringe-worthy and sometimes of bad taste.

Find out more
The Diplomat BriefBell AH-1Z Viper
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The Diplomat Magazine | February 2021

The US-Taliban Deal:
A Year Later

This month, our cover story retraces the year since the U.S.-Taliban peace deal – and those 12 months, sadly, do not bode well for a lasting peace in Afghanistan. We also outline the strategic challenge the EU faces in the South China Sea, assess Taiwan’s world-class COVID-19 response a year later, and stress-test the myth of a “post-Nazarbayev” era in Kazakhstan. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.

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Diplomat Risk Intelligence