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This week our top story goes inside the mansion of deposed warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum – which is now occupied by the Taliban. We also have an interview with Seth Cropsey, senior fellow and director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute in Washington D.C., about the trajectory of Taiwan-U.S. defense relations.
The Diplomat Brief
December 8, 2021thediplomat.com
Welcome to the latest issue of Diplomat Brief. This week our top story goes inside the mansion of deposed warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum – which is now occupied by the Taliban. We also have an interview with Seth Cropsey, senior fellow and director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute in Washington D.C., about the trajectory of Taiwan-U.S. defense relations.
Story of the week
Inside Dostum’s Mansion: Afghanistan’s Inequality Laid Bare

POLITICS

Inside Dostum’s Mansion: Afghanistan’s Inequality Laid Bare

What Happened: When the Taliban captured control of Afghanistan, President Ashraf Ghani wasn’t the only leader they deposed. Local warlords were also forced to flee – including Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek leader and a former vice president who ran the north as if it was his own private kingdom. With Dostum gone – rumors say he fled to Uzbekistan, and then onward from there – the Taliban have occupied his mansion, which they hold up as a symbol of the corruption that plagued the previous government.

Our Focus: “The impressive mansion has seven floors, including a basement hosting a pool and a hot tub. Each floor has two to three spacious bedrooms. Onyx, marble, and gold cover the interiors… In the backyard a fountain and a small zoo were available for the delight of visitors,” writes Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska, describing a visit to Dostum’s mansion in September. “For Dostum, there was never too much luxury.” A Taliban fighter sums up the pervasive sentiment toward Dostum’s opulent home: “The most surprising thing for me was to see that he spent so much money on the house, but he didn’t help the poor. We’ve always known he was a selfish person.”

What Comes Next: Widespread corruption among former government leaders was a key factor in the Taliban’s rapid takeover, and the Taliban are attempting to capitalize on this by promising clean governance. But their ability to govern at all remains seriously in question, with a cratering economy and a devastating food shortage.

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Behind the News

INTERVIEW

Seth Cropsey

Seth Cropsey, senior fellow and director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute in Washington D.C., on the implications of the U.S. Arm Taiwan Act, should it become law: “The ATA would demonstrate, first, that the U.S. takes Taiwan’s defense seriously. However, second, it would indicate that the U.S. remains uncertain about a commitment to aiding Taiwan before a conflict, given that the ATA hinges specifically upon Taiwanese strategy.”

Read the interview
This Week in Asia

Northeast Asia

How Will China Respond to the US Diplomatic Boycott of Beijing 2022?

The Biden administration announced Monday that it will not send any officials to the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, confirming earlier reports that such a plan was in the works. China has vowed unspecified “countermeasures,” which will likely be revealed this week. In the meantime, other countries will have to decide if they want to join the U.S. in avoiding the Beijing Games.

Find out more

South Asia

Lynching Sparks Debate Over Pakistan’s Blasphemy Laws

A Sri Lankan factory manager was beaten to death in Sialkot city over allegations of blasphemy, the latest grisly example of a religiously-motivated lynching in Pakistan. The incident, in addition to complicating ties with Sri Lanka, shines a spotlight on the mainstreaming of religious extremists in Pakistan.

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Southeast Asia

Washington’s Top Diplomat Bound for Southeast Asia

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will this week make his first visit to Southeast Asia since taking up his post, visiting both Indonesia and Malaysia on December 13-15. The visit is the latest in a line of senior U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Vice President Kamala Harris, who have taken a turn through the region over the past six months, as Washington seeks to assemble a coalition to curb China’s growing regional clout.

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Central Asia

Is It Time for the U.S. to Press Uzbekistan on Human Rights?

An Uzbek delegation is expected soon in Washington for the first U.S.-Uzbekistan Strategic Partnership Dialogue, after last year’s elevation of the ongoing annual bilateral consultations. A group of U.S. Senators have urged the Biden administration to stress human rights issues with their Uzbek counterparts.

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Visualizing APAC

Did FOCAC 2021 really downgrade China’s commitments to Africa? A close comparison of this year’s edition and the previous one complicates that narrative.

See the full picture
Word of the Week

SOCIETY

低级红

dī​jí hóng: iterally “low-level red” in Mandarin, the term is internet slang for someone who expresses their patriotism in an over-the-top, unproductive way. A related term is 高级黑 (gāo​jí hēi, “high-level black”) or a comment that looks patriotic on the surface but is actually a well-concealed criticism. China’s government has spoken out against both types of comments.

Find out more
JAGUAR LAND ROVER DIPLOMATIC SALES
Asia After the Soviet Union

The Diplomat Magazine | December 2021

Asia After the Soviet Union

This month, our cover story explores how the collapse of the Soviet Union impacted key Asian countries: China, India, Japan, the Koreas, and Vietnam. We also outline the ups and downs of Bangladesh’s relations with India and Pakistan in the 50 years since its independence, retrace the events before and after the 2011 Zhanaozen massacre in Kazakhstan, and take stock of the mood on the ground in Hong Kong during its first elections since the national security law. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.

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Dense Grey Webs: Cyber Risks and Trends in the Asia-Pacific

DRI REPORT NO. 07 | JULY-AUGUST 2021

Afghanistan and Taliban 2.0: International Security and Geopolitical Implications

In this edition of the DRI Monthly Report—the second and concluding part of a major Diplomat Risk Intelligence project on Afghanistan after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 15, and based on exhaustive in-house research and interviews with 10 leading experts— we look at the Taliban’s relationships with key terrorist organizations and Afghanistan's neighbors. We also examine the Taliban’s convoluted relationships with major regional powers who could prove to be key in granting the new regime in Kabul a veneer of international legitimacy provided, of course, that their own interests are guarded by Taliban 2.0.

Read the Report
Diplomat Risk Intelligence